focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
(insert meme of the celebration of a third position)
It was obvious that the language was tricky, Turkey never confirmed anything, they are who have to pay a huge compensation to Iraq and are the most interred in arranging better conditions before reopening the pipe
I thought that 0 boepd would seriously affect the investment thesis. I also believed that instead of a dividend the company shall prepare for 1) longer than expected production halt, and 2) grabbing any M&A opportunity that presents to increase production in the short term. The last penny in the balance will help to overcome both situations. BTW, deals usually take many weeks or months to close, they may be urging to close a deal now, but the process will not be over until all signatures are on the paper.
It's difficult for me to understand that under the current export and production halt, the company still proposes a dividend. In addition to this, they will begin the drilling in Somaliland, which will draw some cash. I expected more caution from management as the end of this situation is yet unknown.
·Q2 2023: 52,000 bbls at an average US$86.84/bbl
·Q3 2023: 45,000 bbls at an average US$83.57/bbl
·Q4 2023: 40,000 bbls at an average US$83.42/bbl
·Q1 2024: 27,000 bbls at an average US$82.20/bbl
In February they said: "The Company has hedged 157,000 barrels of oil over the next 15 months (starting 1 January 2023) at a weighted-average price of US$86.89 per barrel." So new hedges are a little bit cheaper than the previous ones
My 2 cents, look at the LinkedIn profiles of all experts involved in the response to the 35-2 incident that are included in the last presentation and let me know if you see that all of them confirm a relationship with Zephyr.
Very nice update today, regarding the relationship with the oligarch, they are trying to move ahead
This restructuring involves ceasing to sell gas to LLC Smart Energy, and, in the future, selling its gas directly to its off-takers, and assigning the receivable liabilities so that these are directly recoverable from the relevant debtors
Where do you see that the company will be in net debt next year? The RBL is a credit line, they will use it if needed, they don't drawn the whole amount.
I like that there will be hedges in place, too much capex this year.
The OCF for Q1 was negative, that's because there were only 2 liftings for 342,373 barrels in total. The oil production was ~9,000bbls/d in Q1, hence, there is an inventory of ~468,000 barrels. When the inventory is sold, it will be generate $40m in revenue, less transportation and taxes, a nice cash influx of ca €30m. This money will cover the $20m payment due with the title transfer and give a push to the liquidity of the company.
Again, the IR has to be dismissed after his failure with the guidance this morning.
Why are EDR, EOG and UJO still independent companies? They need to be merged to reduce expense and maximise profitability. The market will never give any value to the three of them separately.
The webinar is available here: https://www.turnerpope.com/investor-evenings/webinars/ A nice update but there were many TBD. I also missed the most relevant details about how the company will move forward woth the gas gathering and sales from the 16-2. It is clear that investors should be more attentive to the news from the nonop assets.