The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
"PG and Lonny wanted for obvious reasons to keep as much quiet as possible" yeah, that's the dream of every AIM CEO, to get the company as little known as possible. The communication is terrible, even today they released partial information from the wireline logs the have already analysed.
It is nice to see the measured the porosity in 1 out 3 sands, but whay wouldn't they pprovide info about permability? I mean, both can be interpreted from a wireline log analysis
Porosity: is a measure of the void spaces in a material (the space to trap gas, oil or water)
Permeability: a measure of the ability of a material (such as rocks) to transmit fluids (the ability of the trapped gas, oil or water to move between pores)
You got it: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PRD/mou-4-update/16038913
To be honest, I've been following Emil on Twitter and other forums, and I think he has some credibility because he's not the average pumper/deramper. Just read with he's writing from a impartial point of view, he just wants the company to pick up the phone or write him back. I don't know how you see that as negative or an attact to PRD
It's not all lost, it will depend if the natgas prices recover in H2 2023, or not
I always said ZPHR lacked a strong operational team and I was attacked by saying that. I thought Colin could create that team and grow the company with it, but he hasn't been able to do that before or after the incident. Now I don't trust him, I think he has lost the north and is trying to get the head above the water. The Federal-8 well is a old well drilled into a different horizon, I guess he's trying to increase revenue in every way he can think of, and that's sound desperate. Where are the contracts with Dominion to sale the gas or for the construction of the gas gathering line and refurbishment of the gas processing plant?
Last year, I thought that the Paradox Basin was a company-making opportunity, now I think they were playing with cowboy hats to look like Texan oilmen and don't have a clue about what they are doing.
It could be, scoredagainsteps. Particularly as the decline in UK and NL seem unstoppable. The last 3 drilling campaings have been a total failure, Q-11B, Benriach and estimulation of Q-10A. The lack of news regarding Orion is killing the share price. Mime deal is great but it won't start to deliver until 2 years from today. I reduced in the way down and I keep a small position, which I could increase at £2/sh
I heard GLA has conducted a planned maintenance, a bit longer than usual though. Also, the data for Balder is available here, ~7,700 boepd in April (770 boepd for Mime/Kistos): https://factpages.npd.no/en/field/pageview/all/43562#
That's the typical refinancing terms, some money for the bondholders and the maturity is extended.
Dunderhead, I'm in the middle myself, I don't think they'll go down or come out of this so easily. In the end, the NBP is the judge here. It is very difficult for me to estimate what will be the price of the commodity the next year, so I prefer to stay out. If I'm wrong and shareholders make a lot of money, I'll be happy for all of them.
Opex would be a bit higher as it should be calculated from the 50% of production, not 40%, but the effect is minimal
I've made some wuick numbers:
- Remaining gross income for the year, lowering opex substantially: 184 days x 42 mmscfd x 40% x 10,400 therms/mmscf x ( £1.5/therm - £0.16/therm ) = £43.1 million
- Gross income next year to end of August (considering 0 decline due to the intermitent production from H1): 243 days x 42 mmscfd x 40% x 10,400 therms/mmscf x ( £1.5/therm - £0.16/therm ) = £56.9 million
- Condensate sales: £8.5 million (double than in 2022)
- Gross income: ~£108.5 million
From there you would have to deduct FX and G&A expense (~£4 million in a bit more of 1 year?), and taxation would be at least the same than last year as lower capex compensates lower prices (£11 million). With cash balances of ~£20 million less the £4 million of restricted cash (£3m were for the coupon, I guess). Total available funds would be £109.5 million (IF gas prices average 150p/th, H1 compensates all decline, which is optimistic, and there is 0 capex)
The total payment is £85m+£11m = £96m (as 1meteor pointed out), and the quarterly coupons from today to september 2024 would be ~£3 million with 5 payments after the last payment this June, totalling £15 million. Hence, payments are £111 million.
So, even in an optimistic scenario the company would struggle to repay the debt, so a placing or conversion of a large chunk of the bond should be foreseen. It would be wishful thinking if anyone believed that the company has forced the negotiation with the bondholders expecting that it could repay or refinance the bonds in this scenario. If the gas prices explode again above 200p/th, the company will be saved, but you would be actually placing a bet in the commodity, instead of the company.
Blakeley is trying to gain some time, I see little changes here. The IR has to be OUT, Phil is an absolute disgrace. In the last update for the placing they said there is a near-term M&A opportunity and they even added it to the production forecast; now they give a "Corporate update" and don't mention anything about it, did they crew it?
Last production figure was 17,800 boepd in just 6 days (25-31 May), now they gave the number for Q2, 14,800 boe/d, why wouldn't they keep the prod.figure since 25/05 when it seems the production increased?
Akatara is not at 38% completion, it was at 35% on the 7th of June , so it advanced 3% in 3 weeks, so we need other 62 weeks or 15+ months to complete it. They could announce a delay of first gas to H2 2024.
I still see that Blakeley is hiding something. I have 0 trust on him and his team.
GLTA