Member Info for Sparkle1

I am in a fortunate position here as i bought in at 44.3p on March 1st after a tip in a newspaper and seemed a good bet, It wasnt really an investment decision - more of a bet in lockdown. I set up a watchlist for all things lithium and bought a couple. So, with that background and i do realise others have suffered some degree of pain on this share that i have been fortunate to miss, then i am trying to belatedly understand the company as my 'investment' was more of a 'lithium sounds good and commodities are rising' sort of decision.
My understanding is that the top 3 shareholders own more than 51%. Thus it is highly likely that Ganfeng will take control. In addition the current board are selling up which leaves no-one to run it other than the Ganfeng nominees or employees. Thus can they get to 75% to delist is the next question? It seems to me that if the institutions sell then they will as the retail investors seem to own circa 15 to 16%? Am i correct? This seems likely to me, as i cant see the institutional shareholders wishing to be part of a private chinese company, but could be wrong. Thus next question is can they get to 90%, seems to me this depends on half the private investors saying no.
What other ways to look at this? Well, one option is to sell and reinvest in Zinnwald I guess, as if i stay in, then whilst 20% of the distribution is likely to be ZInnwald shares, i would feel i had to buy more to make it meaningful enough to bother. So Zinnwald is kind of interesting, as it is currently priced close to its long term 200 day average which looks as if it may act as support. If i sell Bacanora, take the profit and put the original stake back in Zinnwald now then it only has to rise by 2p to earn me more money than this Bacanora takeover bid, which probably shows the undervaluation of the bid. However if the bid goes through, then loads of small Zinnwald shareholders i guess will be selling as they will have small numbers of shares in it but if the institutions back the bid, which i think they will, then those institutions will overnight have about (20%?) of the Zinnwald shares. Anyone out there with any views on this scenario? As i say, dont know much about this; did it as a punt which got lucky and now trying to work out if Zinnwald a good bet I guess.

If you recall, the last fund raise was at 175 and subscribed thus valuing the company at around that price at the time. IMHO when there is little news / no news, it drifts away as so many retail investors and many companies on the rise at the moment, competing for ones money. But it always since the fund raise, drifts back into the 175 zone, where it was valued. So its back where it should be, without further news.

Some calm required on this board.... anyone watch Man United versus Roma last night? Scholes had them down and out disappointing at half time losing. They won 6-2 with the most brilliant display 2nd half. Reminds me of here... rush to the exit, retribution; big guys are calm, taking share price high and low around us - remember that some institutional investors bought above this price so are very interested in what happens. Hence, dont know if this is right or wrong but i'm doing an Solskjaer and keeping calm, going off to paint a room and see where this settles in a while. Went 3+ std deviations too high then 3 too low all in the space of a couple of hours which tells me no-one has a clue if it should be up or down or in between. When the dust settles, i'll decide what to do next. latest data yesterday says that 4 of the people got very sick with India variant having had the vaccination so this is not over yet. Lets see what the big investors do - if they bail or not. Calm required i think to be honest as its clear no-one knows what is the true value today - its just in a spin drier so i'm having a cuppa then going back to painting the bedroom... If its down, hold longer; if its up, consider selling... normal sort of stuff.

pretty chilled about this... i bought in 2015 when Woodford backed it. Diluted heavily 21/7/2020 at 51p. Reason i am now chilled (apart from being OK now its diluted) is that these pharma companies go up and down all the time as they take 5-10 years to eventually come good if they are going to come good. But if they are going to come good, they generally dont break too far below (if at all) their 200 day moving average (which is currently 103). If they are moving in the right direction, they tend to bounce off these long term trend lines. Oliveria stock must have come in around 130 ish so he aint going to sell at moment (if the Loac reasoning, which seems good to me, holds). The weekly data shows very gradual slope upwards. I think these pharma stocks are a bit of a numbers game - if you have 10, 2 will come good.... same rationale as the gal who bought all the UK vaccines - ex PE - didnt know which would work so bought all of them.

Red all week unless oil and copper pick up

It could be lots of things and i doubt anyone will get to the bottom of it... for example, If you were invested via HSBC you may have panicked and moved to UBS due to Hong Kong/China etc. That could explain why HSBC went down and UBS up. Purely hypothetical. It could be that as £ rapidly appreciated you wanted out of euros into £ and thus bought more UK stocks / UBS FTSE trackers / UBS Pharma funds etc. Good but not necessarily due to Synairgen per se. Might be you thought USA stocks too high and put more of your wealth into Europe per se compared to Nasdaq. Big switches going on. So it may be good but i doubt it has much to do with Synairgen per se. Its not really how UBS wealth management or private banking works. They are more likely to have major trackers & funds where eg Synairgen may be one of 100 stocks within eg a pharma tracker and a lot of their wealth clients will have switched around a lot between Jan to March per se due to $, £ and USA markets being over-valued and a lot of Asia being over-valued too. So it may be good but i wouldn't let it influence your decision making on whether to buy more or not. The decision to buy is best made by listening to Prof Holgate and deciding if it is a good investment or not. I bought in because Woodford backed it in 2015 and i just held as he said it would take a few years - 10 i think it was at the time and the Prof sounds a very good egg to me. People have different reasons for doing things. I'd ignore what other nominee accounts are doing as they can shift in an instant. If £ starts to fall could go back down again for the same reasons it might have gone up - depends on $ appreciating or depreciating... you wanted for first 3 months of year to be out of CHF into £ stocks... due to appreciating £ and USA 10 year bond market (check them out)... so it really might not have been anything to do with Synairgen - but it might benefit them.

On that Basis, HL would be advising retail investors to buy and i dont see them doing so?
I bank with UBS and no-one has suggested this to me... I'll call them and ask if you like?

thanks everyone... much appreciated.

Oakleaf: If you look at the UBS screen it is a muddle of their Wealth Management, private and nominee accounts. They themselves run their own portfolios too. If any one party was over 5% they would have placed an RNS. You don't seem to have knickers in twist about HSBC selling? these are just banks and nominee accounts... the purpose of the screen is to show the institutional investors where other institutional investors are invested... It could be as simple as the wealth management business moving since Brexit along with the euro clearing business. I moved a lot in Feb as £ appreciated. Others would have done the same.

Yeah, pmjh... thank you! Yeah... board disintegrated into rubbish when many of the longer term holders left. I'll have a look and see where he is now as he was pretty analytical and loved doing it all. Found him interesting to track.... thanks...

Ghia: btw the UBS thing is just a red herring... their wealth clients can do all sorts of things - e.g. i can get them to manage some money for me but i can also tell them what to buy or i can simply buy things myself in the same way as HSBC etc. It has some advantages in that if you live in Switzerland for example, you can choose your currency and when to switch etc. So its just a nominee bank in exactly the same way as HSBC would be. You have to have £5m invested to be a wealth management client. But might be different if you are a swiss national. You might then choose when to hedge the euro against sterling etc. if you were buying Syn.

Hi Ghia, a few weeks back, there was a great guy on this board who was always digging out original interesting stuff and i cant recall his name which is infuriating as it would be good to see his views brought up to date... one of the oldies from last Autumn...?? Can you recall. I seem to remember it started with a p and had 4 letters!! Thanks for your help...
BtW, still holding. Son had Astra Jab with no ill effects despite kidney transplant... Sorry to be so quiet; just decided to wait a bit for news and go do other stuff for a while. Thanks for any help

https://cdn.janushenderson.com/webdocs/Bankers+faq+share+split+doc.pdf

Jedclampit... on Friday you told everyone you were out... why then are you trying to convince people to stay in at high risk?
These are the options: 1. take the 35p. 2. If they dont get 75% it could / probably will go under and be bought back out of admin, shares suspended for a year 3. Sell now at 2% lower than waiting and invest in something more worthy asap which is likely to earn more in next couple of months / on the extremely unlikely event the shares still trade at a lower price, buy back in then.
I just dont get why you are so keen on holding when on Friday you said you were out. Oh well, One of lifes great mysteries.

CEOAdam... there is some point in selling - if they dont get 75% votes, likely to go bust. If you want to hold, then ascertain how much you would lose if you sell now. If its marginal then sell. If you are losing masses (like me) then you might want to split the risk and sell some.
I feel very sorry for the employees here... they need to agitate their company and BoD (who are going to rake it in) as to a) how their pensions are protected and b) why are they still being asked to pay into a share scheme which in my view should have ceased and compensation paid. I would encourage all holders who are AA employees to write to their MP / Union over this issue - if the company goes bust without 75% vote, then what happens to the pension fund? Further Bidco are only covering some of the debt of the pension fund is my understanding. I would be extremely unhappy if I was an employee in this situation. Hopefully they have strong representation with regard to their pensions. If i was an employee (I'm not) then i think i would be looking to move my pension fund out ASAP. I feel very sorry for the employees. It all went wrong with PE over ladelling with debt and when the CEO knocked out his FD in a bar brawl...im losing shedloads but have myself to blame for not being on the ball. Could see writing on wall and ignored it LOL! But hey life not too bad as Synairgen gains cover the losses...live and learn.

graking... no need to fret... hospitals will run out of beds soon then what happens?

jed, admire your half full stance but the people buying are those clearing their shorts at a lower price to 35p. This will either go for 35p or go bust. If the latter they will still buy it off the administrators and chances are the retail investors will get zero as the company has 2bn debt and the banks will have first call. No-one wants debt in the current market. ruined by PE a long time ago.

langreen - your wife should ask the AA what the scheme is if any for employees given that the BoD have done over their employees - there may be some other scheme for employees with Topco shares to switch. Dont know but worth an ask. Otherwise they are going to have a very unhappy workforce.

langreen... the only people buying are the people who are clearing their short option which means they are looking for a lower price to buy than 35p.

what may have happened (surmising here) is that as they have declared that they terminated their IMA (generally for pension funds) and transferred back to the parent or other related pension fund - maybe thats what all the stuff on Texas is about.