Member Info for Sparkle1

They are in todays RNS and you had to be a shareholder at close of play yesterday

1. The first placing was today and was only awarded to a restricted group of companies - they would have known that they had the nod to sell the lot. That raises £30m.
2. On back of that raise, they hope to do phase 2 (needs a meeting to confirm above before being released). They are saying this is now covered subject to being approved. Everyone who was a sharehold as at yesterday will be able to buy 1 share for every 37 held at £1.75. You will get a notice to do this shortly. Not gone out yet. You wont have to find much money to do this as not many are being made available.
3. As its oversubscribed then it is not going to drop very much but in any case, it has quite a lot of support now a) because the SP is on its 50 day average b) the 9 day crossed the 26 day moving average yesterday to the UPSIDE.
4. The retail investors (you and me) have been diluted but this is made up for by offering you extra shares at a discount + future prospects.
5. Contrary to the rubbish on this board, the board of directors have not taken any money out. They could have but they chose to keep in. 2 of them had options which were due to expire so they were rolled over into pension funds - doubt they will sell them yet as they could have now but chose not to.
HOpe this summary helps anyone without a clue as to what the RNS's mean...

I dont think much of import will happen tomorrow as i understand it there are 30m shares going at 175 to ii,s on an open auction so they might not get all they bid for. That auction ends tomorrow eve and they dont have to cough ip for four days so cant see that there will be a further rns concerning this until next week. Its a boolean equation: under or over subscribed but cant imagine that they will hold without knowing it is fully subscribed even if not underwritten. So in theory it has equal chance of being one or the other so the price tomorrow is a bit irrelevent as noone will know if its over subscribed or not tomorrow.

K3vmc: you are talking nonsense as no-one has been offered any yet at all.
On tils... you would have been ok tracking the moving 9 and 26 day averages and buying / selling when they crossed...

was the ODX placing purely for institutional investors? THe one tomorrow is a closed placing i.e. they think its in the bag.

Alubush - all depends on second placing in a week or so... the ii's have not been able to buy in quantity - maybe they want to. Maybe they dont. Certainly the company thinks 15m shares are guaranteed. If in a couple of weeks time, they now have major ii's and they have sold out, then who cares about 167 tomorrow. But IMHO, it will require a bit of patience. But the big guys are in 175-200 so they clearly didnt spend millions to lose dosh. Neither is the CEO selling - he just got the company to roll over his share options - which meant they had to pay his National Insurance so they had to declare. He is taking no cash out. The board are thus also diluting so they must think there are greater riches - but patience required.

Manifesto, might not be going alone. So you are selling a company and you start to talk to a public company and they say " how are you going to fund it until profitability" and you say " we thought you would", their response would probably be "but we are not a bank, we are a drugs company". Now move forward 2 weeks, now the conversation is " how are you going to fund this" and the reply is " we have enough working capital for a year and have £80m in cash to fully fund the phase 3 trial". So IMHO, RM needed to get another supplier of the interferon as his current supplier either couldnt supply or they thought they needed to de-risk (not knowing what even tariffs are going to be in Europe). So now they are more able to find a partner / purchaser as they have secured supply chain and the working capital. Much easier to do deal now. My biggest fear is that it will go private not that it wont succeed.

Peaks& Troughs: no need to be glass half empty sort of person. CHill. If they had written in plain english " we have a major investor who wants to invest £30m tomorrow as long as its at £1.75" would you still be ****ed off?

According to HL, you can buy them in ISA or Share and Save - so you can still buy i think (might be wrong) but from what i can read (on Diurnal who also had a placing today), then you would have to buy the additional shares in a normal share account... best to call them but that is what i am taking out of my Diurnal placing as they specifically say can buy in either account.

from what i can work out it will be roughly 250, but depends on a couple of things.

Peaks and Troughs,,, cant decide if you are drunk, a troll or just anxious due to loss... assuming the latter and giving you the benefit of the doubt, you have read the RNS wrong - its is quite complicated. Basically, the bottom line is that there were very few share in circulation in this company and one or more major investors wanted in - they clearly think they can sell an additional 15m shares by tomorrow. So they are getting major investors - they would not do it as a closed phase 1 if this wasnt the case in my opinion. Its not an open offer. Its only being offered to big ii's. They think they will be there by tomorrow. Lets assume one of them is eg Blackstone. That means that the big guys are buying in between 175 and 200, and they are clearly only going to invest for major return. This is not a normal placing in that they clearly believe the first 15m shares are guaranteed. The price will then depend on the take up of the second tranche they are essentially saying " look we've now got an extra £30m, we are now offering some more that are rather more conditional. But you are being nuts unless you were a day trader wanting to trade on the same day. The big guys are in between 175 and 200. But you are saying 'no, thats not good enough for me, i'll assume they came in to lose money too, so im out. " So you truly have not understood it correctly. you might have to wait a month but you will be OK.

Joey, lots of misinformation on this board... if they had announced that an ii wanted to buy up 15m but they didnt have enough shares to sell them, then board would be different. But thats essentially what is happening - they would not be doing tomorrow if they dont think they will fulfill an order for 15m shares from a big company/ies. On the back of that, they are taking the opportunity to raise some more dosh to scale up. This makes them cash rich which makes a whole load easier to do a deal. I remember when i was selling my company, i had a choice of a couple of public companies to deal with, one of whom clearly stated that they were not a bank. Thus, it makes it a lot easier to do any potential deal (private or public) with working capital in place otherwise the acquirer is simply having to be a bank.

Nothing has to be done tomorrow... tomorrow is a closed offer to ii's that no private investor can partake in... as i understand it, they have ii's wanting a lot of shares as otherwise they wouldnt bother with the offer and that offer will close tomorrow. Once they know that what they expect to happen, has happened, they will set a general mtg date to open a second tranche to ii's and about 10% to private investors. It wont be very many - handfuls for most on here. You will get a notice of this so no need to find handfuls of cash by tomorrow.

the directors are not cashing in

I'm sort of with you Joey... this is my take:
they have known ii's who they expect to take up tomorrow- 15m shares- presumably they will have said 'we are in at this price' so the timing has probably been manipulated to some degree. Assuming that goes ahead, and clearly they expect it will, then the general mtg will vote to increase the shares again on the back of that, by a further 30.7m shares for ii's and about 10% for pi's raising the £7m. Given the pi's own majority of company, then they are not being offered very many at all if you work it out.. i mean on 10,000 shares looks as if you might be offered 270 shares at the offer price. So for most, irrelevant if i read it correctly. The ultimate SP will depend on how much additional ii's back the second tranche offer.
4 directors have options. They state that two of these, inc the CEO, were about to run out as they are time dependent. The 4 directors have approx 8.5m options to exercise at 1p. However, as they were about to expire, the company is coughing up the NI and tax and rolling them over into new shares. So the interesting thing is that none of the directors are currently cashing in anything at all at the current time, contrary to what is stated on this board.
Other thing i take out is that their suppliers are private companies, two of whom are Private equity part or wholly owned. Its always been my view that the suppliers to the companies dealing with the governments are the guys who make the real money but in this case they are private so not able to invest in them. However, one of them, is owned by Blackstone, which means that if it wasnt already, Syn is now on Blackstones radar. Not sure if this is a very good thing but hey ho.
Finally... my sis applied to go on the home trial - she was sent a testing kit and after 4 days they rang and said she was negative - she thought that was really efficient but i wasnt so sure... however, she is as daft as a brush so maybe she did something wrong. So i can see there may be issues with home trials...
So bottom line: i expect the 15m shares to be taken up by end of play tomorrow. The ii's are buying in between 150 and 200 and we already knew that. The SP will ultimately i think depend on the tranche 2 take-up which is unknown. I think they must have one / two large investors who wanted a load and they are using that to keep the SP up, whilst diluting to get in another load of ii's on back of it. The directors are not selling. RM could easily have cashed in a mill - he simply had to negotiate his own package. He hasn't at the moment. Interesting.

Seriously guys, write to the Sec of State for Wales, Simon Hart, who is on the cabinet... he ultimately runs Wales but sits on the cabinet and has a family full of docs and nurses on his case. Also to Nigel Crisp and Lord Bethell in the House of Lords. (look them up...)... they are on the case. You might not agree with some of these people but they need support to get things done.

Have made more than a mill on Glencore... but each to their own... I think if you are looking at 10% day swings, then really the investing.com technical page set to day will really help you - i tend to use Fibonacci with a cursory glance at the others - look at the deviations from the pivot point and it will show you where momentum will take 4D in any time period which gives you a really good idea of when to buy and sell with lower risk.... good luck

Ok, depends on what your investment time frame is andy mlloyd. If you are a day trader then you are gambling on a horse here. End of. Good luck.
If you are not a day trader then as i say, go to investing.com. If you click on technical analysis, and click on one day, then you will see the short and long term likely movements. There are a number of different statistics shown from Fibonacci to Woodys etc. These all show the 1, 2, 3rd std deviations expected which are extremely helpful to most people as evenif you are a day trader, they will show you the likely movement up and down. If you go back to the chart overview, in the top right hand corner of the chart it says 'technical chart', click on this and set up an analysis chart which allows you to pop in 9/26 day cross overs, moving averages for 50 and 200 day (or any other combo you find helpful but for me, this is the best). Then you can make a judgement call - this will be on a serious " sell" over the last half hour or so which is why i tend to look at daily time frames if i am not trading it by the hour. SOmetimes i do day trade but i actually cant be bothered most days as its not a life sitting at a screen all day watching minor movements - i;d just rather do something more interesting with life per se. Off to pick up my refurbished bike wheel from bike shop in minute - i genuinely find that more interesting.
If you get stuck, then ask again and i will try and tell you which buttons to press some more. Good luck with whatever it is you are doing. If its gambling randomly throughout the day then this is a risky stock and you;d be better on Glencore (if oil is up, dollar up, copper up first thing, odds are you will make dosh). Anyway hope this is more helpful than most comments on this board. Off to pick up my refurbished bike which is exciting and somewhat more interesting!

actually, if you bother to chart 9/26 day cross overs and 50 and 200 day moving averages, you will see all the key points. The 50 day moving ave is around 105, the cross turned 6 oct and the 200 moving ave is approx 72p - go look and then click on technical one days and make up your own mind.. alternatively just hazard a guess and gamble on the horse as most on this board are doing.

Then please stop reading this board as very very very few of the comments are really helpful - if any - and they will only mess with your brain. Suggest you go to investing.com and set up 50 and 200 day averages on a chart and also click on technical and set that to one day and make up your own mind without any influence from the nutters on this board as 90% of the posts here will simply cloud your judgement and mess with your brain. Go do something else if you are worried or need the money you have invested here....