Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Navitas aren't very communicative at the best of times, and I doubt they will announce much as operator, unless they have to. Next news we will hear from Rock is probably either a deal regarding the £3m win fee, funding deal re fighting ROI straw clutching annulment case, or hearing if lawyers can send the bailiffs in.

y11-shx, if you say on a UK forum, 'the Government', then most people will assume you mean the 'UK' Government.
If you meant the unelected 'EU Government', then it's better to say unelected EU Government.

Lots of chatter about the share buy back, however it is a side show of $100m which is almost chump money for HBR !

The bigger picture is that PoO and Gas prices are relatively high, profits are good, FCF is high and HBR have savvy management and a cautious proven strategy. By all metrics HBR are OVER-Performing
Even our socialist government can't totally scupper HBR with their 75% taxation rate.

HBR are Under-Valued, not Under-Performing !!!

'' 1) you have not explained to me or anyone else how the share buybacks are working. ''

Share buy backs Work when the company share price is appreciably below what the company share is worth.

Share buy backs Don't work when the company share price is appreciably higher than what the company share is worth.

I'm not particularly a fan of share buy backs, however there is a place for it, and there can be a benefit for share holders if the company shares are trading (for whatever reason) below what they are intrinsically worth !

HBR is a well run and savvy company, profitable despite our socialist governments semi nationalisation, relatively little debt and FCF to predate on weaker companies. It can be argued the company shares are trading below what they are intrinsically worth.

Problem is, if Liebour get in, they'll want to hit UK O&G companies even more, higher CGT etc etc, A choice between red Tories or even worse socialists.

For Navitas, Rock just doesn't meet their current modus operandi, however as the UK oil and gas tax regulation change, to a pseudo socialist nationalisation, perhaps so will their target list.

Oil,
I'll let other decide if what you wrote below bares any resemblance to you not being ignorant.
' I cannot honestly recall any (buy-back) being successful or at least bringing any value to shareholders.
In fact, the opposite happens. The sp dropped and dropped and dropped. '

When Centrica announced the buybacks (7 days ago), energy prices were at their lowest and its sp was one of the LOWEST in the HISTORY of the company! '

Oil,
Your statement below either shows you were ignorant of Centrica, or you decided to ignore Centrica to try and mislead to make a point??
' I cannot honestly recall any being successful or at least bringing any value to shareholders. In fact, the opposite happens. The sp dropped and dropped and dropped. '

Also, Oil you said
'Spacehoppa.
Are you serious?
When Centrica announced the buybacks, energy prices were at their lowest and its sp was one of the lowest in the history of the company! '

Centrica announced only this 10 Nov - Trading update and share repurchase programme

Their share price was sub 40pence a while ago in early 2020
Their SP was 83p on the day the buy back was announced, and is 92pence today
Energy (oil) prices have been over $60/bbl for 18 months.

Mr Oil, you said
'Of all the companies who resorted to share buyback programmes, I cannot honestly recall any being successful or at least bringing any value to shareholders. In fact, the opposite happens. The sp dropped and dropped and dropped.'

I refer you to Centrica, and their upward share price, and that they have started a share buy back !

Auson, I mainly post on the Rock board and filtered the trolls there as well
ralph2010OllieskyKurgan2.0TropMichael2021Godders99Kurgan3Bigred7hydraidesLaticsRuleMirasolSmartie06.
Time is too short to waste reading repeat dross.

I feel you and others are correct in viewing the removal of uncertainty as significant.
Time to buy is after the fall that the uncertainty has caused.

HBR are a well run profitable company, they can now get on with the job of making money and navigate around as best as possible now knowing what the rules are.

Smartie, I have only been on this board for 20 minutes and already I've assessed you as
a non shareholding deramping troll.
You obviously do not hold but feel we all need the benefits of your 'opinion'.

Congratulations, you are the fastest poster to ever reach my filter list !!

I agree Happy, getting out of the Falklands and Sea Lion project was short sighted I feel,
however they could still take a minority stake if Navitas and Rockhopper were willing to share.
I am not sure they will though.

Smartie06, you may be right, but at £3.36, and PoO over $90,
I regard HBR as a buy.

1500 shares at an average of £3.34.
W.Tax was priced in and SP had fallen to reflect what was just announced.
Company are still v.profitable.
With the buy back supporting the price I obviously hope and expect a steady rise from here.

Hi Donalb, the annual inflation rate in Italy rose to 11.9 percent in October.
Using your figures ''12 month Euribour is 2.686% + 4 % = 6.686 %'', means their debt is falling in real terms for the RoI, hence my comment that the interest on the debt is not a punishment considering current inflation, and inflation needs to drop a lot, and -or interests rates rise a lot.

Hi DEX,

you are probably very right that Italy will string this out as long as is possible, however their remains a small opportunity for a negotiated ''early'' settlement if Italy believe their annulment proceeding is virtually certain to be rejected.

The request to annul is almost certainly a forlorn hope, however its possible that Italy are just stringing it out in the hope they could negotiate a lower settlement, and claim a face saving win.

The interest rate on the award isn't sufficiently punishing in this high inflation environment, to encourage Italy to settle early at any rate.

Thanks for posting CantSellNow
very much appreciated !
After a quick read it sounds like the Italian appointed lawyer is saying
'I can see why the arbitration panel came to the conclusions it did, however if this, that and other things had been different, then a different conclusion and award would have been appropriate.'
Seems he's not really disagreeing much, just spouting off probably because the ROI is crappping itself over a potential flood of other claims.

The relatively minor £3m Win Fee is a distraction from why we are invested in Rock.
Even the huge arbitration award of Euro 200m is just a distraction from the ultimate prize.

The gigantic prize is FID and eventually 35% of a producing Sea Lion.

Hypothetically at 50k/bbl/day, POO at $80 and breakeven costs at $50, that over $547m gross profit EVERY year !!
$356m gross to Navitas, $191m to Rock. Rockhopper are valued at $66m today.

Navitas can clearly see the prize and a reminder this is what they said not so long ago.

''We are very excited to become the official owner of 65% of the Sea Lion discovery in the Falklands, and the nominated operator, adding ~463 million barrels of oil equivalent (2C) in reserves to our portfolio. This transaction demonstrates yet again the winning combination of innovation and hard work we strongly push for in Navitas.

To our partner, Rockhopper Exploration PLC and its CEO, sam moody, we wish a productive and successful journey, up until production and the full realization of Sea Lion's enourmous potential value.''

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/navitas-petroleum_innovation-collaboration-energy-activity-6980796362799865856-fM6b?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Navitas don't need Rockhopper for their financial clout, or knowledge on how to set up and run a 50,000b/d oil field,
however they do need Rock for their knowledge of the Falklands/Sea Lion, their relationship with FIG and their status as a UK company.

Enjoy the bumpy ride.

Oh FFS.
At 30 June 2022, the Group had cash of US$9.1 million
Warrants exercised to date, add $0.45m

Warrants outstanding before end 2023 approx 98m, worth nearly $8.4m if 85% are exercised
9.1+0.45+8.4 = $17.95million

If the £3m was paid, and taking off the $4m G&A, hypothetically by end 2023 that leaves $8.5m in the bank for 'Others'

We all agree Cyan, that the detail of the WIN FEE, should have been made public sooner,
however you are boring the pants out of this now !

Rock can raise more cash IF/WHEN needed
via equity,
or partial/sell the loan,
or sell another few % of Sea Lion,
or they get paid by Italy etc etc.

All of it doesn't matter if Navitas pull the rug, and if they did, and I very much doubt they will, then Rock would be toasted and this obsession over the £3m is irrelevant either way.

'Not unreasonable to let people know don't you think?'

On that I agree, and I have said it would have been better to announce the Euro 3million fee payable in the Arb win Rns, if not before. However regardless of that detail, Rock made the right decision to go ahead with the deal they struck.

Your issue is you/we didn't know the details, that is a fair observation, but it's a moot point.