Member Info for SpaceHoppa

< 10 % chance that FID doesn't happen

Bootledodger, who knows why the market values a company at ABC one day and XYZ the next.
However 10 years of disappointment might be a factor, poor sentiment wrt management at Rock,
the < 10 chance that FID doesn't happen, the time lag between now and FID, between FID and first oil.
General lack of awareness or misunderstanding I feel, of how important having Navitas as operators is.

I'm confident that Rocks SP is going to be multiples of 8pence in the coming years, which is why I'm not selling and Rock is my biggest investment.

Just what we know Bootledodger
Stated sub $45/bbl cash break-even
250 million barrels recoverable resource
Potential for multiples of that, and Tcf gas in Rocks licence areas
Sea Lion is 'shovel ready'
Navitas were super keen to take 65%, their positive presentation of Sea Lion to their own investors,
their proven ability to fund big projects, their distain for Argie politics,
their $391m a year profit if PoO averages approx $80/bbl
Support of FIG/UK Gov's and the potential
The new need for energy security

There may be other reasons but for me, added together, in my opinion is Sea Lion is 90%+ going to be developed by Navitas.

'I suspect very shortly you will be a millionaire'

Unlikely with his 795k Rock shares in the short term, even if OM is a decent award, however with in my opinion, Sea Lions 90%+ chance of being exploited, perhaps in 3 to 5 years we could be looking at a 3 digit share price.

Meanwhile that ruling - 'the Tribunal has 120 days after closing to issue its Award, extendable by 60 days', so only 21 days now until the first deadline.

Nothing to apologies for DEM. None of us know if for example, that large 750k buy was a bit of insider trading. Rock though have been unusually good at keeping sensitive information under wraps, but perhaps the lawyers of the RO Italy not so much.

'I lean towards SpaceHoppa's suggestion that the 'news of the impending award is out there'.

Hi DEM, a minor clarification as I actually do not feel there has been a leak as such. I agree that any award will be known and discussed amongst a small select group of people, the 3 Arbs, King and Spalding, Moody, but I do not feel the current buying is because of a leak, or an Italian judge !

I feel that investors, old and potential new are buying because they must surely see that Navitas are not here to Fu*k about, they are spending decent money on FID and supporting Rock towards FID and 1st oil. They seem genuinely excited to have taken 65% of this new oil province for peanuts. Selling now seems nuts, buying Rock shares seems just seems the common sense thing to do.

One other happy observation specifically for me as I have filtered a fair few,
is I haven't seen this for a while :-)

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A regular reminder of why to keep your new 7pence shares.

If phase 1 production is scaled down to 55,000b/d (from PMO’s 80k/d)
and costs go up to $50/b (from stated break even of $40),
perhaps with PoO at $80/b (from current $96/b)

The maths are
55,000bbls x $30 = $1.65m revenue per day, $602m a year
royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $391m profit
Rock 35% = $137m profit net to Rock per year.
Rocks current marketcap is $60m, v $137m a YEAR profit.

This is why we are invested, and why we should not be selling our shares for peanuts like 8pence !

''I think that the news of the impending award is out there ''

I doubt it, and certainly hope not as the share price action would indicate its a pretty poor award !

No, the SP is trending slowly north as new investors see the massive upside here, but it's tempered by cheap 7p share sellers taking a small % profit.

Well at the current rate of losing 0.5pence a day Bonkers,
you should be able to buy the whole company in 14 days !

''as a new shareholder here sadly I have missed out here on the earlier years''

This is a lot funnier than you can imagine Lenin !

The future with Rock is looking super bright compared to the years you have missed. Rock have finally a partner with the means, Desire and balls to develop Sea Lion. Officially we are looking at perhaps 18months before FID, although I think it will be sooner. First oil perhaps 2 or 3 years after that?

I am surprised to see buys and sells in the mid 8pence already considering the new shares issued, as I thought there might be a bit of an overhang. I think the penny may have dropped that SL is highly likely to happen and folks are keen to keep their cheap shares for the long haul, meaning anyone wanting a sizable position is going to have to chase up the Bid.

Might not be too long before the warrants are in the money !! :-)

''I think the sp will get stronger as the OM awards gets nearer.''

It might do Market-Dealer, however I think the share price will slowly get stronger regardless of the OM award.
Most people feel Rock are owed something from the slippery Italian Government, but I don't think many people are investing in Rock now for that reason.

The reason to invest in Rockhopper is because they have just merged with a kick ass operator, POO is consistently over $95/bbl and Sea Lion is the first tip of a new oil province. Anyone who doesn't need the money, really should hang on to their Rock shares as the risk reward is I feel, quite heavily skewed in the favour of reward.

I have just ticked you both up, DEM and Donalb. DEM has some very good thoughtful posts, and Donalb as far as I am concerned, if it is fair comment, you are welcome here to post both good, and bad about Rock. There is plenty of both over the last 12 years I have been invested.

Now assuming there is no significant RNS tomorrow, it would be great if everyone took a day off selling their extra 7p shares for a tiny % profit, and see if we can get the bid up to a dizzy 8 pence :)

Yes, your link showing her as an arbitrator was a surprise, however I think she is just part of the Italian team.

https://app.investorstatelawguide.com/view-dispute-detail/Rockhopper%20Italia%20S.p.A.,%20Rockhopper%20Mediterranean%20Ltd%20and%20Rockhopper%20Exploration%20Plc%20v.%20Italian%20Republic/WpABu1uDO1M=

As far as I know there have only ever been 3 arbitrators as per this

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14

DEM, an interesting post on the possible thought process of the arbitrators and ICSID. Thanks.

I didn't like the scale of the recent fund raise however it was necessary and has neutered the OM importance to a side issue and as a bonus, neutered our resident trolls (all filtered-recommend) who liked to claim Rock were going bust.

With over 500k shares and around a 14.5pence average I am biased but I sincerely believe Sea Lion will be developed. Navitas were the massive game changer as we now have an operator with the balls to develope it, the desire to develope it and also the ability.

I expect the shares to significantly rise over the next few years and I just need to keep my nerve, not top slice at the first sign of a few £1000 profit and hang on to those shares !!

I do not believe we will see sub 7p again, unless a temporary blip if OM went against Rock, which I think is less than a 5% chance, so I hope all the long, and new termers can now enjoy the zig zag ride back into double figures, and possibly in 2 or 4 years, back into triple digits !

Jackdaw gas field approved. Seems common sense energy security trumps the green agenda. Fossil fuels becoming more acceptable as utility bills head over £3000 a year, funny that !

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1646282/shell-north-sea-gas-jackdaw-aberdeen-net-zero-putin-greenpeace/amp

Very True Ovets, although no 'probably' about it, they have said, and I paraphrase slightly here, they are ''aware of the political situation and literally do not give a flying monkeys about Argentina and their clown politics, their clown economy and clown military.''

Logically with the JV signed off, FIG happy, Rock refinanced, Navitas keen as English mustard, oil, gas and energy security back in vogue, POO stubbornly above $90/bbl and Nazi-Russia's invasion going to rumble on for a long time, I give FID a 90 to 95% chance of going ahead.

It is tempting to take a small profit from the 7pence OO, however I recommend everyone hang on top them for a bigger profit as this process gathers pace.

The share price indicates, and the company so far, have shown no signs that they have turned around their clown performance.

Oil found, flows appraised, Tick
Profitable/commercial at $60/bbl, Tick
FEED done, several times, Tick
Operator keen and capable, Tick
Rockhopper cash balance enhanced, Tick
FIG/UK approval and licence extension, Tick
FID, Awaiting
Funding, Awaiting
OM $100m bonanza, Awaiting :)

Rock are in a vastly superior place than they were 12 months ago with timewasters Harbour still running the show. It seems, I hope, just a waiting game now, before this kicks off big time.

Can sell over 500,000 for 7.24 pence at the moment so demand is there.

I suspect we are on an upwardly, if slow move up from the 7pence range. People releasing some shares bought at 7pence will take the sting out of the upward movement for a good while I feel, but with Navitas, a fully committed and capable operator now in charge, Rockhoppers finances improved and Navitas covering the majority of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion costs from Transaction completion up to FID through a loan, then it's only a matter of time before weaker hand and quick profit traders leave, and more longer term investors replace them.

Getting in a couple of ii's would make a big dent in the newly issued 7pence share pile.