Member Info for SpaceHoppa

I wonder if Italy now wished they settled OOC :-)
I also wonder why having decided not to sell any of my 500k, I thought I would trade 25k, knowing I had 50k back up in warrants, I sold just over 16p, but totally bottled it and bought them all back at 15.9pence. A 70quid profit......but the stress!

I wonder how long it will be that many of those who sold, or are selling at these cheap prices, will also regret their decisions.

I wonder how long before Navitas trickle out news of FID progress? How long before back in the 20's? It's all a waiting game, but the Falkland oil game is alive and kicking and Rock are definitively back from the moribund dead of the last few years.

Most here know why we should hold or buy Rock, but sometimes it is good to see it in type.
1. Market cap is £85m, yet they were awarded £150m yesterday
2. Sea Lion fully appraised and pretty much ready to go. Just waiting FID from Navitas
3. FIG and UK Govt have approved Navitas
4. Navitas are Israeli, very capable, very keen, 65% JV partners and operator
and finally the biggie

If phase 1 production is scaled down to 55,000b/d (from PMO’s 80k/d)
and costs go up to $50/b (from stated break even of $40),
perhaps with PoO at $80/b (from current $96/b)

The maths are
55,000bbls x $30 = $1.65m revenue per day, $602m a year
royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $391m profit
Rock 35% = $137m profit net to Rock PER YEAR

Hold or Buy for a great risk reward !

Harbour background funders, with K&S lawyers will have a very good idea how to get, how much and how long it will take to get the money. Rock are not in any way desperate for the money for now, so It is possible both parties may cut a deal whereby Rock take perhaps 90% of the approximate £150million award, to draw a line under this debacle, and Harbour get an extra $15m for doing what they do best.

It will be interesting to see what the Italian appointed arbitrator has to say,
'Pierre-Marie DUPUY (French) - Appointed by the Respondent'
but even the guy appointed by Italy agreed that Italy breached the ECT, which they obviously did, so interesting but irrelevant.

I wish people would filter or ignore the dross posters, it just clogs up the board with more dross replies !

So, on with hopefully some constructive thoughts. I and others deserve a mini pat on the back for assessing 8 or 9 months ago what is 'likely' to happen.

I think last year I put the chances of Navitas signing bindings at 95%, and so they did.
Plus 90%+ chance of Rock winning the case, and so it was, although the amount did massively surprise me, and I am so glad the OM award is over and we don't have another 2 months of waiting !!

We now move on to the next ducks.
Getting the last i and t's dotted from Gov't approved is I feel a dead certainty.
Getting a significant payment from Italy is also 95%+ likely I feel, as King and Spalding/Harbour know how to, and will ensure they and Rock get the many $millions that is legally owed.
Navitas are I feel still 90%+ likely to decide to develop SL, and they now have a partner that can stand on it's own two feet.

14pence is a steal for anyone buying now as the risk/reward is even more stacked on the side of significant reward in the short or long term. Perhaps for a few days or weeks the SP might bobble about a bit, but as it slowly sinks in that Sea Lion is 90% going to happen, regardless of if Italy p issing about, then the shares will be heading higher imho.

The positive change in Rocks fortune these last 12 months has been extraordinary, however most still have not clocked how good this companies prospects now are! My 500k plus 50k warrants are staying for the long run. Good luck if you gamble on trading though, each to their own.

Fair play to them, they, the lawyers, Italy especially took their time, and some! however they came to the right result as Italy clearly were in breach, and the award seems quite fair and much more than most of us hoped.
I suspect funders Harbour knew Italy were in for a kicking though hence the no win/no fee.

Very well played Harbour, King and Spalding AND Moody/Rock.

What is quite normal, when a share doubles in a day, is for the SP to drift lower as people top slice here and there.

In this case things might be different, Rocks bank balance (with Italy payment of circa £120million now showing on the creditors list) is massively significant, Navitas are very clearly keen as feck over Sea Lion, PoO is back at $100/bbl.

Rock after a bit of profit taking, I hope will soon start a steady and long term drift higher towards 30p

Keep in mind if Navitas found funding of $1billion for the SL development which cost say $1.4B, Rock would need to find $35m.

Anyone who wanted a big stake in Rock via another placing can kiss that idea bye bye as there will be no more Rock share placings :)

So much bigger than I had hoped for !!!

Rock, turn-around play 2022 :) YIPPEEEEEE

A reminder of the last update-------''Rockhopper Exploration plc ~ is pleased to announce that ~ the Ombrina Mare Arbitration were declared closed ~ on 25 April 2022.

Under the ICSID Arbitration Rules, the Tribunal has 120 days after closing to issue its Award, extendable by 60 days (Rule 46). The Company will update the market in due course.''

I am a little surprised to not see an Rns this morning, as I calculate 120 days ended yesterday. I would expect an a Rns later today or tomorrow morning. Realistically an extension is by far the most likely situation, but the lack of an Rns today saying as much, does puzzle me a bit

Pauldraton, it may be considered poor form, but it is the norm that they only announce an extension at the end of the negotiation period, so today all parties will be informed, and an Rns will be issued tomorrow with either the award, or much more likely, the final extension.

If my maths is correct, 120 days from 25th April is tomorrow,
and I feel the chances of a conclusion to proceedings be reported are small.
So, we will highly likely get an Rns on Wed saying nothing but a two month extension.

The problem for Italy,
apart from Harbour voluntarily stumping up the money long term on a no win/no fee basis,
and their employing a very expensive top of the range group of lawyers,
is that Italy were by all reasonable accounts, absolutely in breach of the ECT
That should be there undoing, and rightly so !!

As for the award, anything net to Rock of $15m and I will be reasonably content,
everything above that will be a nice, and somewhat expected, bonus.

I agree Buzz, it is not looking more likely than not, that this clownshow arbitration will be extended another 60 days, and Paul I doubt the extention will be announced until the day after the initial deadline.

It wouldn't be compulsory or normal I feel, for Rock to RNS an appointment of another company.
The COO news is out there and Navitas are not PMO'ing in the wind waiting for tings to happen.
SL is very odds on to be developed, and has been ever since Navitas signed the MoU,
investors have just been a bit slow believing it, that will change as Navitas crack on regardless.

Just seen your post Pauldrayton and the great news of a COO at Navitas. Thanks.

Eventually investors will see that the biggest most important news that has befallen Rock in a decade,
is getting Navitas on as 65% owner and operator.
OM is a sideshow, and Rock are cheap as chips !

Why would Navitas bring in a new partner mean Rock needing more money???
That makes zero sense!
If you're that down on Rock and really believe what you post you should sell ASAP please.

Any OM money will be a nice bonus for Rock, and I initially bought 250,000 or so a year or two ago just for that reason, however I'm now sticking around for Sea Lion development which has a far bigger value impact for shareholders I feel, than a $30 -$130million OM award.

With regards to the blocklisting of new shares, I think until they are issued, then we can not be sure they will be issued.

They are clearly there for what Rock expects will be the demand for the 9p warrants, and as such I do expect them to be issued. However it's not certain, as the 5th of July Rns shows
'The Company also announces that it has applied to the London Stock Exchange to cancel the shares which remain unissued from the blocklisting application submitted on 23rd January 2020 in connection with the Company's Share Incentive Plan'

Great write up DEM and I agree with your logic. I feel the minimum Rock will be looking at, taking into account interest, is £15m net, or 3p on the SP under your calculations.
I also feel there is the intangible bonus being
1. The OM distraction is out of the way and people can focus on Sea Lion, and 2. The feeling that Rock with the extra cash will be better placed to see SL through to first oil. Whatever the result, it will be great to see the back of the legal wrangling.