Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Thanks DEM, good to know ICSID have made a decision. I am more optimistic, >50% chance that the stay will be lifted given the very clear, unanimous conclusions of the original case. Unless our highly respected and experienced lawyers have messed somehow, then I feel this is just Italy trying to avoid the inevitable.

I hope we find out today and I guess an RNS can come anytime during the day once Rock have analysed the decision with their lawyers.

The thing is LTT, we've all hastily read something and hastily posted, only to hastily regret that we didn't proof read. It's all good.

Regarding news, yes ICSID should report soon, I am surprised we have not heard anything already!

Regarding Navitas, well the SL update just shows they are very much on the case quietly in the background with no fanfare until they have to report.
Unlike Premier, who promised much and delivered little, Navitas say little then BANG,
Capex to first oil $1.3m and extraction costs down $27.6 per barrel.
I much prefer the Navitas way :-)

Lol. Times like that one wishes, if only there was a delete button !

Good find Fecm, but you are right to read little in it.
Written by Jeremy Cresswell, who also honoured with special recognition from AREG,
for ''for his contribution to the renewable energy sector in Aberdeen.''

https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/460789/areg-jeremy-cresswell/

Regarding additional funding requirements that Rock ''may need'' in 2024,
I should be understand it could vary from $0, to in theory $151m.
I use a hypothetical, realistic scenario of $1.3b capex, $1b of finance,
meaning Rock need to find around $35m of funding for post FID, pre first oil expenditure.
This funding could be achieved, if required, in a number of ways as has been discussed.

It seems reasonable to hope that funding and much more, can be achieved by the unanimous OM award,
that slippery Italy are trying in vane I feel, to avoid.

Hi CitizenTS, I have a few people on filter, including Latics, who I do remember as being polite, but I thought was too repetitive. Here are some
ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7 hydraides LaticsRule Mirasol

RBL is one option.
Rockhopper loan is another.
With FID, if the SP has risen to 50p, it would mean just a 10% dilution to raise $35m.
Sell off the OM debt to lawyers.
Negotiate an increase loan from Navitas, of sell off another 1 or 2 %
There are options for Rock

I think what Penny or Pound is referring to, and it is a legitimate observation,
is that Rock might need to find $35million under this possible scenario.

''$1.3bn (capex) - $1.0bn (finance) = a gross JV equity contribution of $300m. We are on the hook for 35% of that which is $105m but we get 2/3 of that in the Navitas loan leaving us with $35m.''

This is only after FID, which is expected in 2024, which is also the year the annulment case is meant to conclude.
We are easily 90%+odds on for FID I feel, so the question for 2024 is, where might we find $35million??

Good morning Buffit, I'm sure the 30 day limit will be applied, however I guess the doubt is over what 'the last submission on the request' is exactly. I am reasonably hopeful we may have a decision in the next day or so, but Italy are certainly in the business of stringing this out as long as possible.

Decision on Stay of Enforcement
Within 30 days after the later of the constitution of the Tribunal/ Committee or the last submission on the request
73(3)(d)

March 6, 2023 - The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on the stay of enforcement of the award.

30 days from the 6th of March was last Wednesday. In theory it could have been announced on Thursday, however news does not always get announced that quickly, Friday and Monday holidays, so perhaps tomorrow or Wednesday if the 3o day limit was indeed from the 6th of March.

For what it is worth, I feel it is more likely Italy will be refused a stay.

after a surprise cut by Saudi's and Opec. Seems they aren't happy with mid $70's and acted accordingly to increase price.

With SL's life of field cost around $27.5/b, it remains the case, that Navitas are almost certain to sanction,
and I doubt they will be dragging their heels like PMO did !

Best not to underestimate HUM managements ability to foook it right up Bushy,
however, even HUM's mining mediocre management team will have learnt from Yani,
and should make a significant success of Kouroussa all things being equal.

Bushy.
Revenue is vanity,
Profit is sanity.

I think the evidence suggests they do have it wrong Bootledodger, however time, as always, will tell :)

'The Market most certainly doesn't think this is a done deal'

Nothing is a done deal until the deal is done, however I suspect the market does believe SL will be sanctioned, but perhaps, the timeframe for serious investing in Rock isn't quite there yet for their capital.
Just by looking at the facts, I concluded we had a very high % chances of Navitas signing the JV 90%+, and Rock winning the Arb, 80%+ I think. The stay of enforcement is harder to call.

For sanction %, just looking at the facts and figurers, Navitas's commitment, and the team they have set up, it is almost certain I feel, that they both want to sanction, and will sanction. The market either hasn't cottoned on yet, or more likely, is waiting for the optimum moment to invest.

may have been posted before, however if not, then Navitas now list the London/Sea Lion management team.
Does anyone seriously believe SL isn't going to be sanctioned next year??

Chanan Wolf -Sea Lion Project Manager

Ian Ramsay
Chief Operating Officer, Ian leads the United Kingdom business unit, currently progressing the development of the greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects.

Aleks Armstrong
Vice President Subsurface, Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd
Aleks leads the Reservoir and Geoscience functions and is currently progressing the development of the greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects.

Thomas Stensgaard
Development Project Manager, Thomas leads the project team for the Navitas Operated greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects, responsible for concept selection, design and construction. Thomas has over 30 years of experience of efficiently delivering offshore projects

https://www.navitaspet.com/management-team/

A regular reminder of why to keep your Rock shares.

If phase 1 production average is 75,000b/d (80k is the plan)
and life of field costs were $30/b ($27.6 is currently the estimate)
perhaps with POO at $75/b (Brent at $78 atm)

The maths are
75,000bbls x $45 = $3.375M revenue per day, $1.232Billion a year
royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $801M profit
Rock 35% = $280m profit net to Rock per year.

Rocks current market cap is $80m, compare to hopefully in 4 years time $280m profit a YEAR, and for MANY YEARS !

This is why we are invested, and why we should not be selling our shares for peanuts prices like 10.5pence.

So what are you expecting??
I can not think of any news coming up?

Why??
Nothing expected on the Hum radar that I know about.

CitizenTS, the amount Rock have to find, to get to first oil is not actually fixed yet.
At a capex of $1.3B, it can range from $nothing, to $151M
I vaguely have an expectation figure that Navitas are looking at achieving around $1billion in project finance, I have no idea where this idea came from now, plus the remainder from Navitas and Rockhopper funding.

If $300m is left after $1,000m of project finance, and Navita will fund 2/3rds of our share, then Rock need to find $35m.
Other $figurers are available.