Member Info for Soupdragon78

Anyway.... this is the most relevant news item for NFX in recent days. Forget all the AI copy paste slop, forget the twitter loons, forget the fake 'NT to buy' bots.

Reiteration that combination therapies are the way forward.

"Whoever is able to bring forward the first therapy that will be able to stop fibrosis and have a tolerable profile will be a huge winner for patients,” Beiske said. Ultimately, Hallén and Beiske agreed targeted combination therapies with better efficacy and minimal side effects is the path forward for improved IPF treatment."

https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/ipf-draws-investor-heat-as-biotechs-target-fibrosis-halt-better-tolerability

Maybe post some actual research, you might get a better response. You never know people might take you seriously.

Whats the matter sujood, did nobody click your link to some irrelevant site?

All very quiet today, has everyone else gone to the races with Sujood as well?

Enjoy your time at the bookies Sujood.

Exciting... can we all post everything twice?

Yeah, its NT to sell as well. (can't get a quote for my 25m)

Probably your broker, I can buy easily at 0.19

Indeed Infor1p, hence the old Allenby note attributes a 10% probability of success.

As with every pharma therapy, its only as good as the last test it passed.

LT, Dan is looking at both options. A development partner is highly attractive option.

Yes LT, it picks up that the pre-deal fair value should be around 10-20m (I forgot it was in dollars not £'s but anyway), so obviously any actual upfront payment will add onto this.

The NPV shows the value of NXP002 and is realistic. It will generate around £50m in profits for the company over its lifetime. People forget that whilst milestone payments may be say $300m, the company will have to spend say $275m to achieve the milestone.

The obvious differences compared to 2021 are that NFX now have 2 ODD designations for NXP002 adding value.

To me the question for investors now is do they want a low up front payment outlicensing right now at pre-clinical stage, or do they want to sign a development partner to get phase 1 and sign a bigger upfront deal.

The more developed the therapy is, the more others are willing to pay

If the same metrics applied then the fair value from this note would now sit in the 0.38 to 0.76p range.

From the final Allenby note 15 July 2021.

"Allenby Capital considers the large majority of Nuformix’s value to lie in NFX002. Assuming it is able to seek a licensing deal for NFX002 as a Phase 1-ready asset (in perhaps 18 months), we believe it could perhaps achieve a deal with a $360-450m headline value, although the upfront would be likely to be in the $10-20m range. The NPV of such a deal could be in the order of £50m, assuming a 10% probability of success and a 13% WACC. This future value suggests the current fair value probably lies in the £10m to £20m range (1.7p to 3.4p/share). "

Ok, I doubt it as it gets a legal mess over jurisdictions.

More likely that we will see a development partner come onboard with a payment to develop through phase 1 clinical. They would then get a percentage of a more valuable outlicensing further down the line.

Remember, outlicensing at later stages is more valuable than at this pre-clinical stage.

In the long run maybe, but all work done on NXP002 to date has been for IPF and ILD's, so fibrosis in other areas would need testing.

Phase 2 asset deals are worth significantly more than pre-clinical.

More related to NFX is AZ $17m deal with RedX.

Does large pharma mean large licensing payment?

Can you tell us more about the deal Dan did with AZ and J&J?

Agreed FX, the sp is at the same price it was a month ago, nothing to get excited about.

FX, there’s plenty of time for Dan’s new venture alongside his part time role at NfX. He needs other irons in the fire because if NFX fails that’s 15 years of his career gone for nothing.