Member Info for Sotolo

Wolf bag, I too find the number of posts here an interesting metric, four or five years ago I was a near lone poster with sometime weeks between posts, when we get loads as last summer it is zooming up, now it has gone quieter it is falling, I also notice conversation becomes more civilised and two sided as the posts fall, appreciated your one.

Tiger two quick questions, first if Rhodium is 50% of revenue is it a considerably higher percentage of profits, as at this high price costs are only a small proportion, while with chromium the profit margin must be much lower?
And second it seems Centamin may have the opposite problem to THS, here we know profits will be far higher but the market hasn’t taken full account so when they figures come out in May the share should shoot up. With Cey we know profits will be under half this year but many board members don’t seem aware. So when the first quarter comes out as predicted the shares could fall as many haven’t expected it?

Dasut, you are quite right last year's profits weren't down as they were mostly from before the wall problem, I was talking about this year's which the board have made very clear will be considerably lower. My concern about this week's first quarter figures is that if many larger investors think like some board members here, and haven't fully taken on board the lower production and more important much higher aisc, and even more important extra $200 an ounce remedial Capex, then this quarter's figures, even if a little better than the board predicted, will still be bad - the first full set taking account fo the above - so will you and the market be disappointed by first quarter figures as predicted by the board or even a bit better than expected , or have the big investors taken account of this with the halved share price and will we get a lift? I am not at all sure, I have noticed with Hoc that when badly predicted figures are just as the board said they would be, or a bit better, the shares still take a tumble when they come out. I remain a holder in expectation of our 2023 recovery and a good if much reduced dividend (would only be 3% of our price was still double)

Bhargav, the share price, or the buyers and sellers who make it, has been behaving pretty rationally imho. None of us know how good or bad the news on drilling will be but we know it was promised for Easter just before it, but now three weeks later Peru delays are putting it off. First it is not great that Brad promises and then doesn't deliver, as the situation in Peru was clear before Easter, second Covid is getting even worse in Peru which will probably delay results longer, thirdly why should hot money hang around waiting, so with no crystal ball and a wait rationally more people sell. I am hanging on only because my buying price is a fair bit lower, which is probably silly. Of course I may be confounded by some imminent brilliant drilling figures, I do hope so, but I don't and never have really trusted what the board tell us ever since Salazar pulled the wool over my eyes on rising costs, so my metrics said profits were arriving when they didn't. Oh so hoping you are right Bhargav but a pure gamble tiny for Newmont Agnico, big for us

Sorry I do keep writing ruthenium when I mean rhodium, early senility, of course it is rhodium I meant whose rise is so much more important to us than Palladium’s but all rises welcome. Nice to see Cey perking up, THS seems a little stuck waiting for something that can take it through its tantalisingly near all time high. It is surprising how very little the share moves through most days.

I do not sell because I have held nearly 20 years, I am not a trader, and FOMO, if results are good, however I am worried after last lot if they are bad.

Or MM’s but simple lack of demand

Shame Palladium is a small percentage so even a 50% price increase would only add 3.5% to revenue: now a 50% rise in ruthenium…would take us through £2.. Anyway I am happy if both just stay at the stratospheric levels they have achieved for a while longer

the next RNS could be anytime but I am not exactly looking forward to it when the lats one resulted in the shares halving, lets just hope the next one is better!

the problem is the political woes are outweighing the silver rise, in expectation of much heavier taxes eating bigger profit, however no-one knows what the presidential run off will bring, now how much greater the tax will be, they have said they won't nationalise at least so we will still have something left even if taxes were to rise substantially, lets hope there is some good news on ounces costs and rare earths to cheer us up this week! I bought some more too but feel a bit silly

We'll be very lucky if it Maes 125 130 by Fri but would of course be lovely, gold seems to be moving slowly

Fres up over 3% this am but we can’t even manage 1%

Yes amazing how chromium has declined in importance, like Hoc that was perceived as a silver miner (with some gold) but as the ratio changed became a gold miner without the market noticing. We are just now a rhodium (or PGM) miner with a bit of chrome, and as rhodium rises more and more so.

But Hoc still being held back as usual by a combination of short mine lives, week exploration results, and the politics. Can see why Ernesto sold so many, and and the MD some too. I hope Silver rises so far that Hoc begins to move to prove them wrong, however for now cey seems the better bet. Also THS in a different space… unless we get some great mine life news in this week’s results, but we never seem to, year after year always a bit hand to mouth with production drifting down and costs up obviating the metal rises.

Tiger, I think Cey will rise faster than Tharisa just now. However I do not feel bad about having sold a hunk of Cey and Hoc for THS even if PM's take off as Tharisa is also exposed to PM's, particularly Platinum that is a mix of PM and industrial a bit like silver. I see Ruthenium is up to $29500 this morning, nearing the $29800 all time high of a month ago, third assault on $30k lucky?

So sorry I forgot that Rance was the Chinese holder, out of Hong Kong quoted, held presumably for their Chromium. Tiger also glad to read over on the Centamin board that you have reviewed the unseasonality of gold over the last few days and decided it is time to return to dip a toe back in Centamin. It is not just a question of falling gold that accounts for a lot of Centamin’s tumble, but the wall which reduced output, increased aisc a lot and on top added an extra $200 an ounce in remedial capex, however in 2 years that will all be over and Cey may be a tier 1 mine with double the profit of now, and a divi higher than THS. I sold a chunk of Cey to buy a hunk here, but have bought a bit back

I see Rance have sold about £1m of shares, are they the family’s holding company? If so although only a tiny proportion of their shares I wonder why, especially if they too think the shares will rise. The family seem to own a similar amount that Eduardo Hochshild owned in Hoc mining, he presciently sold 12% last autumn which put the company under a bit of a cloud. Large family holding can be good… and bad

Mamba thanks for the informative post, excuse the rudeness of some on this board whose heights of analysis are that you P off; maybe they think that if everyone posting only talks positively rather than informatively,the share will rise, but you are right: the share will rise if good discoveries and good fundamentals; as these are out of our control let’s at least be civil. Have a lovely weekend all and may some good news eventually come, and if it is bad may we not be too emotional

Dasut I might be wrong but I thought there was in effect a profit warning after the slide as management said ounces mined would be down a fair bit, aisc up a bit more and an additional $200 an ounce capital costs to remedy the situation halving profit and dividends for a couple of years. Excuse me if I misunderstood. However we are already 6 months into the two years so the share price should begin to look to the end of this tunnel, plus gold getting stronger, should hopefully double or more in next two years

I am not sure it is the Peruvian elections or the market believing that this is, as you say, another false hope for the precious metals, Fres is behaving much the same. Let us hope the market is wrong but I reckon 60% it is a dead cat bounce that should bounce a bit further (wave4) and 40% we have seen the bottom, however bought some Hoc back today