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Prof I too as you know am very exposed to miners so also have missed out lately but still in there and hoping. I remain heavily in Hoc and Cey, I didn’t see DJRyan’s post on Rambler, but sold my Wheaton and much of my Fres to buy a Tiger recommendation Tharisa which I like very much. Tomorrow with Cey depends how much the terrible costs, output and profit already acknowledged or whether market will be shocked to see them again, unless better than management said, or great news on concessions court cases or W Africa. Always seems to be jam tomorrow while Tharissa is churning out jam today tho with so much rhodium Palladium and platinum much more industrially dependent

Great post Total, sorry makes your head hurt but as you say profit is always subject to manipulation, esp in these circumstances, but we do know there will be quite a bit more of it coming from these elevated prices, enjoy the aspirin lay back and see what comes in the next financials

Breaktwister, no idea, as said OMI is not at all a Buffet type of company as pointed out to Johnycash. However quite interesting he started to discuss the investment criteria OMI does fulfill, so Johnycash views welcome as all

Buffet’s criteria for buying in
Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),
Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
At least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units
Not quite Omi rather the opposite. We have no ROE, no consistent earning power and no earnings let alone $75m? Not to say we may not become great one day, just not at all what Buffet would buy as he is an investor not a gambler like use

Me too, entirely as expected. I just posted on the THS board why the political danger may not be as great as expected, there was nothing in the forward statement, though it will weigh on us. I am still here too.

Tiger, socialist candidate, and favourite for president, Castillo’s spokeswoman did say very clearly this week that they would not nationalise mines but make the share of profit the Peruvian people get (tax) more equitable, which seems fair they are very
poor and have been horrendously hit by Covid, but would reduce profit for shareholders a bit. Also not allow some Newmont mines contaminating water. Nothing about this in the Hoc forward statement. Predictions for the Mexican president’s effect on mining was dire but it has not proved as bad as expected. THS has the same thing in effect in S Africa with the much mooted chrome tax. I agree on Edoardo, hedging his bets by selling. On selling the market in general I also agree, I sold Tui a few days ago and reinvested that in Tharisa, so pretty much all I have is mines, though if there is a general market downturn could hit car buying sentiment, but Tharisa could have much lower PGM prices and still make a hefty profit. All the best

Thanks Dasut, just so

Quite so Chickenlegs, I do see the potential but know it may or may not come. I appreciate your posts, great to get some intelligent and informative debate

Banana man, isn’t this a great and civilised board, unlike so many it seems highly informative, and courteous, and tolerant of those who post the negatives as well as the immense positives.

Wise words Tiger, and I wouldn’t have the fun of being here but for you so thank you again. There is maybe a fourth reason, the sword of the new chrome tax hanging over THS?
On another note I was thinking of selling a few Hoc today to buy some Cey in advance of tomorrow’s results. The figures, if as predicted, will be lousy; tho the market know this it could hit the shares; on the other hand the prediction was so lousy they could turn out a bit better or there could finally be news of new concessions and W Africa that never comes? Maybe just stick with what I have.

Only Dark Knight and Prof here after results, as interest in Hoc disappeared? Well as expected the price is flat. We had the drop in anticipation. Wish we could one day get some good exploration/rare earth news and even recovering ounces and costs. We are still overshadowed by Peruvian very bad Covid, the coming election that could whop us with taxes, fewer more expensive ounces mined and the owner sale, so all in all not doing badly. Hope gold saves us as gold price now considerably more important than silver with our hedge.

The majors JV in lots of exploration, it is chicken feed for them, in the hope one comes good, hopefully ours but who knows. They get 80% of the company without having to buy it, though they could. The information we have doesn’t yet confirm to us or them we have a hit, hence exploratory drilling. The price of shares and market cap is what counts not the quantity,so billions of shares valued at .01p could be worth far less than us, our market cap is a bit under aim average. Your sentiment is great Chicken, just getting the supporting facts right. Good luck with your new purchases and hoping price doesn’t continue Dow as after the original Newmont buy in when fell nearly 10 fold

Also Hoc already lost 15p in last few days on anticipation of market reaction to the worse figures, so maybe the drop has already happened?

Prof hope you are right, but higher PM prices obviated by lower oz and higher costs? Hoc has been having a tough time with heavy Covid in Peru and tough distancing rules as well as gold and silver running down and being harder and more expensive to get to. On the plus side the silver hedging has so far looked good, though it won't if silver soars. With 370k oz at aisc around $1230 we should make around £75m for a PE of around 14 this year which is about right, so I don't expect a price rise apart from that from rising gold this am, hope I am wrong.
The problem is similar to Cey, lower ounces mean higher costs so double whammy. l this our figures are exactly as expected, as I expect from Cey tomorrow, but will market be disappointed as it hadn't fully realised lower profits despite management saying - look on cey boards how few believe management predicted lower figures. Hopefully however the price already has this baked in from bigger players, like Ernesto and Bustamente selling, and rising gold prices may keep us level. Good luck all and maybe there will be buyers with relief figures are at least as predicted?

Ps $16m increase in cash which is not particularly meaningful, but if repeated through year would only be £45m which isn’t a lot for a £1billion company

Ps $16m increase in cash which is not particularly meaningful, but if repeated through year would only be £45m which isn’t a lot for a £1billion company

On quick first reas: Marginally disappointing figures as expected, down on first quarter last year which included COVID lockdown start, and higher aisc all as predicted, as gold and particularly silver running out, not particularly exciting exploration news. Overall neither good nor bad, explains price and why owner and MD reduced shareholding. We are now dependent on gold and silver price though we are quite hedged on the silver so will be less affected by any rise or fall than rivals. IMO

Tiger two questions: , if Rhodium revenue were to disappear wouldn’t profits more than halve ie isn’t rhodium contributing half revenue but more than half profits?
Second could two reasons we are valued so much less than Cey, first because many investors don’t believe the rhodium price and think it is in an unsustainabke bubble however hard substitution might be? And maybe more important Cey pays out most of its profit in dividend, while THS reinvests nearly 85% of its profit which may turn out to increase profits later, or not if metals collapse, but whatever is less secure than Cey paid now. Cey is supported by that massive yield, still 6% though halved? Just some thoughts

Sorry Dasut I was trying to reply to your post yesterday when you wrote that ounces were down but not profit so our share fall was mostly due to PR mismanagement and we should be far closer to £2, by saying I didn't mind about ounces but the increased costs meant profits would be halved, explaining the share price fall, although it should climb back up with expected return to full profitability over the next two years. However I am also sorry if I didn't phrase that more clearly: many concentrate on miners' ounces as with other companies they concentrate on sales, however I think that costs matter even more as if the costs are more than sales then the more a company sells the more it loses. Same with quantity of ounces mined though of course increased ounces can increase efficiency but not necessarily and fewer ounces lead to higher costs. Part of Cey's problem now is with the wall fall they are mining more expensive ounces as well as costs being spread over less of them for now, but our costs look like they will be much higher this year despite cost cutting measures, hence the price. Taken to extreme I once had shares in a goldmine in which it turned out that costs were higher than the MD said and the company went bust as they turned out to be higher than revenue. In quarter 4 Cey had an aisc of $1613 an ounce plus was spending more on non aisc Capex so making very little per ounce, so even with quite a lot of ounces was doing terribly, this year costs should be about $1400 per ounce inc Capex, which means last month we were making around $300 an ounce compared to $1000 last summer. Therefore it is not ounces but profits per ounce that I really worry about, in Centamin the increase costs are a greater reducer on profits than the reduced ounces hence they matter more, so I am not worried by Centamin reduced ounces but their much increased costs although I know the two are connected, and I will have my beady ey on the cost on weds morn as ever. However thanks for your post they are always informative and helpful even I think if our profits will be down a fair bit more than you and I hope you are right that they overplayed the wall drama and will give us some much better figures on Thurs

Thanks Dasut, the ounces don’t bother me they never do, it is the much higher aisc plus around $200 extra capex that will hit profits harder, the metric that matters more and management say will take a couple of years to work itself through. Hopefully this is already in the price so good news on ounces, costs, concessions or W Africa will give us a boost. However if even some here aren’t aware management predicted halved profits this year will the cold truth bother some. I am hopeful mid term, this week I just don’t know but remain hopeful