Great posts this weekend31 Jan 2021 12:52
Lots of great contribution.
My main thoughts on the last RNS were. Results were inline and top end almost exceeding broker forecasts valuing the shares at around £14.50. You will remember I posted on several occasions to try and project the fact we were only being valued on £200m of revenues prior to results, so anything inline would be deemed positive to the SP, rather than injecting some excuse for disappointment by projecting 400m plus revs and potentially falling short. I hope after a weekend of reflection many investors see how undervalued we are now v broker forecasts.
Any perceived disappointment in the results themselves has only been caused by revenue forecasts of 400m plus and advantage taken by the MM's to releive nervous investors of their shares.
Obviously GM's comment were poorly written. A PR expert needs employing and their twitter account needs to be brought under thst umbrella. Currently, it seems like we have a junior on that job.
That said, I do understand it is a difficult space for GM to operate in with NDA's etc. That said a couple of well written lines would have made all the difference without contravening any NDA's. It seems as if GM was hoping to include contract news but it was not possible at this moment in time. The lack of an operational overview and the active discussions re the DHSC seem to tie in with a positive update coming very, very soon, probably this week. GM will have had some strong mails this weekend and will know he needs to provide an update to make amends for the poorly written forward statement lines last week. Also he knows he needs to keep the wolf from the door with a low ball offer. I fully expect an imminent offer for the business taking advantage panic that has been caused in the SP. If anyone is going to make a bid it will probably come now. I belive they will from Monday start stake building, wait for the DHSC extension and make public their intentions.
Lowball is £25-30 IMO currently. GM knows there is alot more to come from NCYT as Porky has outlined and he will not want to have his work curtailed short of his own ambitions nor for a sum thst inappropriately reflects how far he has taken this company or its potential.
For thst reason I think GM will be actively looking to push the SP the broker note targets ASAP.
From a chart perspective it looks like it retraced to T2 support from the long term harmonic in play and should be due a bounce given a number of other indicators are also oversold.
Expecting to be back to the £12 range in a few weeks and higher when the DHSC contract extension is confirmed or braced for a bid that IMO is low ball around £25-30.
GLA I will be adding Monday.
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