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OK, let's have a look how 3,000 bopd can transform the bank balance.

3,000 bopd 70% export / 30% domestic

Export net profit is hovering around $32 pb atm ($29 after transportation/ storage costs @ $63 pb).

Domestic net profit is around $12 pb atm (domestic oil production was loss making at $6 pb when oil prices crashed, at $20 pb I reckon they’re making about $12 per net per barrel).

So I make net Revenue on 3,000 bopd as:

Exported oil – 2,100 bopd * $32 pb = $63,000 per day $22,995,000 per annum.

Domestic oil – 900 bopd * $12 pb = $10,800 per day $3,942,000 per annum.

Total net profit after transportation and storage cost per annum = $26,937,000 per annum

Then take off production, taxes and G & A costs.

I reckon we could be looking at 9,000 bopd by mid summer 2022 so around $80 million net profit to play with less production, taxes and G & A costs.........Q3 2022.

$50 million total net - enough to get serious about building a 12''/18''/24'' pipeline? - if we're still here :-)

A far cry from having $300k in the bank last Year End.

GLA

Oh and Reserves to imcrease, which will see another share price booooost.

The 153 Wells going bonkers increasing to 1,000 bopd production next year is going to leave 3,000 bopd waaaaaayy behind.

Next RNS up to boooooost the share price is the A7 Deep Well spudding and the A8 Deep Well 5m initial fracked section flowing.

It's all coming to gether and I bet that RNS caught a load of sellers out :-)

Like I said there's no way Carver would release crap news on Christmas week.

Good post C.C.

Though I reckon the 140m they refer to is Gross not Net.

Having weathered years of maybees I think with the imminent Ministers export licence sign off and the A8 Deep Well flowing, having already been perforated 5m, that's ready to flow test (what's the length of this initial interval - 20m net?) with no blockages etc. to report.

Hopefully we'll get some basics in the net RNS re API/ Net meter oil column - depth/ flow rate etc. - no doubt they'll work the initial size of the flow area to 3-10 km2 until more appraisel/ exploration wells are drilled (A7/802) to increase the reservoirs area, which will take time.

See you at the £1 party.

GKP went from 5p to a 465p daily high with ISIS, Turkey bombing, oil crash from $147 to $30 bucks and a $600 million bond debt and 10K bopd from one out four duds.

This Company now has the potential to be one of those AIM stocks that can easily multi bag with so much in the pipeline.

Pity not everyone gets it even here.

rhertig,

They had approx 90m Gross down to 5,046m and have found another 50m between 5,046 - 5,450m.

That's how I read it and it's the A7 Deep Well they're spudding next not the A9 followed by the 802 Deep Well and 142 Horizontal shallow well.

R

Just for fun.

1 billion barrels of OIP * 15% RF = 150 million barrels * $40? pb net profit = $6 billion / 2.1 billion share in issue = $2.86 per share * GBP 0.75 = £2.14 per share.

The initial 15% RF would increase over time with more appraisal wells/ production.

There could be another 150m new shares issued with the debt swap.

A take over company would probably offer half the £2.14 with ‘’leave some profit for the next man’’ with shallows and more firming up.

Get the A8/ other deep well flowing and the £1+ take over party could very well be on the cards, all depends if there are other bidders.

2 billion barrels of OIP?

If we say 60m net from the three A8 Deep Well intervals re 20m average per interval (140m Gross) and any/ all flowed light oil across the majority of the 58km structure how much would that be worth?

Watch this space.

Just to add.

‘’ Well 142 the next to receive a 600 meter horizontal side-track.’’

Hmm, if they sidetracked the 154/153 Horizontal Wells for 200m and managed to produce 600-830 bopd respectively after a stabilizing the flow rates what will a 600m sidetrack manage to produce 1,000 bopd?

‘’ In compliance with our existing work programme obligations a new deep well on the Airshagyl structure, Deep Well A7, is set to be spudded before the end of the month. The well has a planned Total Depth of 5,300 meters and is targeting oil in the Carboniferous and Devonian. Drilling is expected to take approximately 4 months.’’

It was a pleasant surprise to read the A8 Deep Well had drilled 150m deeper than the original 5,300m TD target when some of us thought the rig may not be able to drill to the original TD.

It’s worth noting they estimate the length of time to drill to TD on the A7 Deep Well will take 4 months once drilling has started, that’s 44m per day and much faster than the 5m-7m per day drill speed (6 months estimate) estimated on the A5/ 802 Deep Wells? Will they drill deeper to 5,450m?

‘’Debt Conversion

Work is progressing with the various regulatory bodies required to implement the proposed debt conversion announced earlier this year. A circular convening a general meeting to consider the required shareholder resolutions will be issued in due course.’’

I personally won’t be voting in favour of this debt conversion ($6.2m) at 3.2p (approx. 150m new shares) if the share price in the coming weeks/ month is a lot higher than 3.2p - how can the various Regulators justify the debt swap if the share price is 8p+ for example when they announce the GM date? PI’s may not have enough shares to vote against blocking the deal, but hopefully the Regulators will at least adjust the 3.2p to a higher conversion rate (if the share price is much higher) – the family will make a killing which is fair enough IF the conversion price is in line with current share price on the day. You can’t put a conversion figure (3.2p) 6+ months prior to a the current share price after operational success, Reserves upgrade and significant production increases etc..

I’m okay with a dividend from the proceeds of an A3 Best sale or if they have a significant cash pot / share price.

Got to be in it to win it.

C.C.

Yep, once these 2 two deep wells (A7/ 802) have been completed and they are no longer obligated to drill more exploration wells the cash pot will build allowing them to concentrate on getting ALL the deep wells flowing, which isn't cheap, through acid treatments and sidetracks (would a deep horizontal sidetrack work with the Dutch acid?).

I think we will see the A5 Deep Well sidetrack too Q1 next year if they can get the new piping, however I'm just wondering if the 'new' piping meant for the A5 Deep Well was already delivered but has been used instead to drill the A7 Deep Well (imminently) to fullfil their BNG exploration contract - makes sense.

So with the A7, 802 and A5 Deep Wells to spud and half a dozen horizontal shallow wells to boot in 2022 not to mention the peropherals (CE/A3) export licence about to be signed off it's looking like CASP (to me) will outshine pretty much any other AIM Company through 2022.

And Reserves increase on the cards to boot.

Could someone please press the fast forward button.

''A8
Deep Well A8 has been drilled and logged to a depth of 5,450 meters without incident. Three potential oil bearing intervals covering, in aggregate, approximately 140 meters have been identified, with an initial 5 meter section already perforated. We expect to have results of this perforation shortly to announce.''

Just to note this 5m perveration is only an 'initial section' of the interval thy're testing - how long is this section from the 140m gross 3 intervals?

I like it where they say 'shortly to announce'.

Makes it sound very important and who know what the total perforated section of this interval might be in the next RNS and it's depth, deeper the better.

Drum roll.................

Rich,

Good point, thanks.

First of all a great result from our 153 Horizontal Well and just a few comments to add.

''The additional production from Well 153 has increased overall production levels to approximately 2,300 bopd.''

However, shouldn’t this be 1,800 bopd ‘currently’ plus 830 bopd = 2,630 bopd? This figure has to be wrong imo.

Several Wells are spudding shortly, but what happened to the A5 Deep Well side track?

142 (600m horizontal sidetrack) / 152 new horizontal spuds and SY spudding another Horizontal well, and 300 bopd to add from existing wells that are already ready to be switched on once the Ministers signature has been received (imminent) - Reserves upgrade due. Along with A7 Deep Well spudding imminently and the 802 Deep Well spudding in January (delayed from this year)? So half a dozen new/old wells being drilled/ redrilled shortly.

Work to progress existing deep wells A5, A6 and 801 remains on hold. – Disappointed the A5 well hasn’t sidetracked, must be still waiting on new piping to arrive? And no acid wash done yet on A6/ 801 Deep Wells.

‘’Deep Well A8 has been drilled and logged to a depth of 5,450 meters’’ So an extra 150m drilled than the planned TD (5,300m) with 3 oil bearing intervals – what happened to the fourth interval? Anyway it looks like they’ve found another 40m/50m oil interval between 5,046m to 5,450m – 90m gross intervals previously reported.

We should get to know if the 5m perforated interval flows shortly – that will be a very significant discovery if it does flow and will add to the Reserves upgrade along with the SY structure.

So is the 2,300bopd comment a mistake? Yes I’d say so and would expect a new RNS to correct this figure to 2,630 bopd.

We now know why the A8 Deep Well news took longer to be issued and it’s looking good and I’m looking forward to what the 140m gross intervals produce.

As I’ve said before 2022 is where we’ll see the share price rise on the back of a heavy work program.

Shares price reaction this morning is a bit of a damp squib on the back of 830 bopd of new oil and the A8 Deep Wells promising outcome, especially with amount of drills to spud shortly, but market will catch up for sure.

Have a good Christmas everyone and all the very best for a busy and hopefully a very prosperous New Year.

We had a RNS 8 January 2020 saying the A5 Deep Well flowed at 1,500bopd for 10 days.

Has the A5 Deep Well spud yet?

Could we see similar flow rates with the A8 Deep Well (I get the feeling they're flow testing this well atm)?

And what adramatic leap forward since then 2020 re no funding for shallow/ deep new drilling.

Since then we've had a further 2 shallows hit TD and the A8 Deep Well side tracked + finances turned around.

We're in a miles better position since 2020, the rearview mirror is meaningless today.

It's all about the drill bit not the office waller, which some don't seem to get.

Last top up 123K on the back Clive's a very very nice man - hope he read that. lol!

Clive must be waiting on one or two important add ons to the Op's Update and this is the reason we're still waiting for the next RNS. I mean if it was going to be a crap RNS then surley he would have released it a month ago and wouldn't leave it until Christmas week to release a stinker?

No, I'm confident he's waiting to surprise us all with a bumber RNS for Christmas and that's why he's holding out that bit longer for CE contract signed/ Kaz gov upgading the SY license to export status or a well spud - got to be one of um?

I mean what twta would release a load of carp next week?

Oh oh oh ... oh no.......I mean oh yes!

21 Sept - ''We are using the same horizontal drilling technique at Well 153 and at the date of this report have re-drilled approximately 2,200 meters of the total planned of 2,400. The final 200 meters will be drilled horizontally into the reservoir unit. ''

13 Oct - ''Drilling is now complete at Well 153, the second horizontal well, which is now being tested.''

So no mention of blockages etc? I’m guessing they’re flowing this well and just waiting to throw a stabilized flow rate into the Op’s Update mix.

Speaking of Aquifiers KK.

‘’5% of production decline was due to the loss of production from well 144 due to high water cut.’’

‘’The next wells to be redrilled using horizontal drilling techniques will be well 144 and then well 146.’’

So the 144 Well had a high water cut and is next to be re-drilled. I’m guessing this has already spud and they’re doing a horizontal drill above the OWC in this interval, which will probably be drilled some 200m or so as with the 154/153 Wells, obviously to lessen the water cut and increase production - who knows after 2 months it could be half way down to TD ;- )

I think the next RNS is definitely going to be a box of chocaltaes.

Got to be in it to win it.

Griper,

All you do is bleat bleat bleat, if you're so convinced it's going to be all bad news then move on and come back at 2p.

Don't reply just mooooooooove on.............

KK,

That's right and the fact is since the 2020 CASP crisis we have seen CASP come out of the stocks at pace due to higher oil prices buffering the their bank balance.

Been here for years, but for me this is a fresh start with so much on the go with multiple news flow around the corner, which we've dicected over and over again re good/bad outcomes waiting on the next all important Op's Update.

The rear view mirror is one thing, but forsight is another going into 2022 with so much happening.

Another opportunty knocks to buy more stock as the share price falls, which I'll be taking further advantage of this week.

Got to be in to win it.