Member Info for somm

KK, congrats on making it to retirement in kneerly one piece.

Like you I've stuck a ton into CASP in the hope of a very nice retirement and that 240K that's showing as Unknown was a buy - another chunk to the pot ;- )

There'll be two RNS's out this month both about dividend payment and the next Op's RNS will be out the first week of February. imo.

You heard it here first ;- )

Drilling at the 802 Deep Well was paused two weeks ago at a depth of 3,614m to lay a 300m casing to approx. 3,860m just below the 3,900m interval where strong oil shows were encountered. This will have been completed by now imo. The next step is to drill another 200m from 3,900m to 4,100m which should take around another seven days or so which will show how thick the net-pay interval(s) is and again case the 200m and then perforate the interval(s) perhaps 5m+ into the walls of the casing where the net-pay interval(s) is, which again should take around ten days before testing the interval(s) so we should have news by the end of January indicated by CASP if it’s commercial or not.

Then they will have to make the decision (as with the A5 Deep Well) whether or not to continue drilling down to 5,300m to complete the well – remember the 801 Deep Well had four net-pay intervals between 4,535m and 4,541m and the second was 20 meters between 4,554m and 4,694m the third was 59m meters between 4,635m and 4,694m and the fourth was 36m between 4,812m and 4,848m, so I reckon they will continue drilling to see if these four net-pay intervals are the same thickness etc. lower down in the 802 Deep Well. Just imagine a gross 200m interval (net-pay?) and four other net-pay intervals flowing from the 802 Deep Well to boot.

Once the 802 Deep Well results are in (at 5,300m TD?) they will then decide whether to go back and drill the 801 Deep Well horizontally – it’s a given if you ask me.

With strong oil shows that flow from the start of the 3,900m interval and no incidents thus far it’s looking pretty good especially as the close by Russian wells BOP kicked in 40 years ago after the salt layer was drilled through.

Got to be in it to win it and a HNY peeps.

And the 802 Dep Well results in January - February to boot.

Just to add:

The best we can hope for in Q1 is the dividend continuing, wells 141 and 142 coming back online bringing production to around 4,000 bopd again and the spudding of the 155 Horizontal Shallow Well, and the elephant in the room is that the CE has been chartered for 2023/2024 and a special dividend pay out in 1H is on the cards.

After the 802 Deep Well has finished drilling (likely February) the G50 rig will then be moved to drill the sidetrack on the A5 deep Well. If so this will probably happen in March and will likely take 4+ months to complete the sidetrack after (if) they have managed to pull the stuck drill pipe out before flow testing it, so late summer for A5 results.

A7 Deep Well will probably spud in March using the new G70 rig and will likely take 5 months to hit TD before flow testing it (it took 4 months to drill to 2,150m and TD is 5,300m), so late summer for A7 results.

The A6 Deep Well and the 801 Deep Well will spud after they have the results back from the A5/ A7/ 802 Deep Wells, so again a potential spud for these wells is in late 2H.

KK - There’s not a cat in hells chance any of these deep/ shallow wells will complete in March.

The 155 Horizontal Shallow Well should spud in Q1 so could be as late as March and will take 4 months to drill to TD, so again summer for 155 results.

1H will be busy for sure with drill updates etc., but the deep well results won’t be available until at least mid-year going into 2H.

A touch of realism is needed here.

IMO.

CC.

Not talking about the A5 Deep Well, which does have oil in several intervals at similar depths as the 801 Deep Well:

''801 Deep Well

Four potentially oil bearing intervals have been identified during drilling and supported by mud log data. The first of 6 meters between 4,535 and 4,541 meters; the second is of 20 meters between 4,554 and 4,694 meters; the third is of 59 meters meters between 4,635 and 4,694 and the fourth is of 36 meters between 4,812 and 4,848 meters.''

What I'm pointing out is the 802 Deep Well has a gross oil bearing interval of interest between 3,900m-4,100m, which is much shallower than the 801/A5 wells oil bearing intervals.

Meaning there's going to be a ****e load more oil than originally thought and WH Ireland are going to have to do a new CPR to show this increase.

The 801/802 wells could prove to be the A5's bigger brother having so many intervals very thick net-pay intervals (5+) volume wise with just one being 59m thick.

A5 is the daddy thus far - lets see what the 801 Deep Well brings to the party the end of January, which will most likely continue to be drilled to 5,300m TD so they can drill through the same 4 deeper intervals they drilled through in the 801 Deep Well.

Once they drill through the salt layer at 3,860m they will then fracture-flow test a gross oil bearing interval of interest between 3,900m and 4,100m and we know it flows, the big question is what will be the net interval(s) thickness over 13 square kilometers?

A Happy Christmas and hopefully a very prosperous New Year to all CASP investors and posters.

From todays RNS:

''Production and pricing

Production without any contribution from shallow wells 141 and 142 or from deep well 802 remains at approximately 2,400 bopd.''

Why even mention ' or production' from the 802 Deep Well - answer on a postcard.

2023 is the year lads - we'll see the share price pop in 1H and then by year end with with other wells A5/ A6/ 801 in production who knows what the share price could be at, especially with CE chartered out.

CPR 2024 to boot and a for sale sign on the door of the data room.

‘’25 May 2022

Deep Well 802 is planned to be spudded in June. This well will have a Target Depth of 5,300 meters and like the other deep wells drilled at the BNG Contract Area will target potential oil-bearing intervals in the Carboniferous and the Devonian. Deep Well 802 is expected to take 6 months to drill and is the final deep well we are obligated to drill under the BNG work programme.’’

‘’6 June 2022:

Deep Well 802 is the second deep well to be drilled on the Yelemes Deep structure and the sixth deep well in total to be drilled at the BNG Contact Area. It is also the final deep well the Group is obliged to drill to fulfil the BNG work programme commitments.
The well has an Total Depth of 5,200 meters targeting oil in the easier to drill Sandstone rather Carboniferous rock, with an initial target at 4,300 meters, and with drilling expected to take 4 months. By using our own rig, with the casing already acquired and by drilling through the easier sandstone, the cash costs are expected to be significantly lower than for previous deep wells.
The well is being drilled close the site of a Soviet era blowout and our advisers have provided us with the highest estimate of success for any of our BNG deep wells drilled to date.’’

After they have drilled to 4,300m will they continue drilling the 802 Deep Well another 1,000m to 5,300m TD where the 801 Deep Well found 4 net-pay intervals, one of which was 59m, with these two wells being so close together and the 801 Deep Well being re-drilled horizontally in 2023? I’m thinking they will continue drilling to 5,300m TD so the drilling could go on for another month+. If they do continue drilling the 802 Deep Well to 5,300m TD then hopefully the 4 net-pay intervals are similar in thickness as the 801 Deep Well's and they flow, they’ve said the 802 Deep Well has the best COS and with strong oil shows that flow it’s looking to be the case with no problems thus far casing to 4,300m. Two deep wells close together flowing oil from multiple net-pay intervals could prove 2023 to be a game changer with the A5, A6 and A7 Deep Wells to boot.

Not long now.

They were preparing to sidetrack the 802 Deep Well 4 November, if they did start drilling then then they should hit their TD of 3,900m in 5 days time, add flow testing and we should have some news next week.

Not just oil shows but strong oil shows ;- )

Yep, all eyes are on the 802 Deep Well - strong oil shows and the oil flows - game changer if commercial.

CE - they said they should know by year end it the charter is successful - negotiations could go into January so still in play for 2023.

And 155 Shallow Horizontal Well to spud next week to boot.

So we may get a kick to the share price by year end and hopefully not in the codgers with a stuck pipe.

Just gone in HL.

Just doodling here so take with a pinch of salt.

They are paying a minimum £1m per month dividend which is currently 40% of £2.5m.

So they need £2.5m every month of spare cash.

Operations must be costing a couple of million pounds each month to run and every third month they have to pay an extra approx.. £650K toward BNG license fee ($32m over 10 years).

Drilling operations in 2023 are to increase significantly with at least 2 wells being drilled continuously throughout 2023 (A5-6-7- 801 -155 – 141-2-5...... etc.).

So how much will they need per month to cover Op’s in 2023 before paying out a dividend £3m? £4m with minimum dividend payment?

Pumping 2,400 bopd is currently generating at $30 pboo £1.7m-ish per month - double production to 4,800 bopd from the shallows and they’ll generate £3.5m per month which will depending on the price of dom/exp oil price – note sure what the net tax profit is?

So they must have some forward thinking going on to pay the dividend right? Hiring the boat out could generate a £20m+ one-off or £2m per month? This could pay dividend and Op’s so how far are they away from doing a CE deal?

Then we have the deeps:

We know the A5 Deep Well initially flowed 3,800 bopd and the A6 Deep Well flowed too.

If we can get production up to 5k bopd from the shallows and get a deep or two flowing then production could jump to 9K bopd imo and see a significant share price rise and hike in the dividend payment based on a 35%-40% spare cash payment.

Just doodling and hopefully 2023 comes good.

Four intervals between 4,535m - 4,848m...........

If the satellite images are of CASP's 801/802 Wells then I have to say I didn't realize how close they were to each other and I'd guess both wells could have potential oil bearing (net-pay) intervals covering in aggregate 121 meters and at the very least 4 intervals. The 801 Well had 4 intervals between 4,535 and 3,838m.

So the 802 Well flowed oil around the 3,000m after punching through the salt layer - that's another approx. 1,500m of potential other intervals to measure thickness/ flow on top of the 4 known net-pay intervals.

Having live moveable oil at a shallow depth is exciting and if it's commercial and combined with the much deeper 4 intervals this really could prove to be a gusher.

Please no stuck pipes!

They've said the 802 Well was flowing at a shallow depths and we don't know yet if that flow rate was at commercial quantities, my calculations show the 802 Well should TD around the last week of this month all going well so I don't think proper testing of the well has started yet, but possibly from this weekend - though they could be testing various intervals on the way down?

We'll know within the next couple of weeks.

SSHHHHHH!!

He might pay it out at 0.0444 and we'll all be 10 times better off ;- 0

Should say £1.59 per share not $1.59.

Try this calculation based on 1 billion barrels of OIP.

1 billion barrels of OIP * conservative initial 15% RF = 150 million barrels * $30 pboo = $4.5B * GBP 0.80 = £3.5B / 2.25B shares in issue = $1.59 per share.

Add better RF and OIP number........

I doubt anyone would pay full price (though have done and more) and I use a 50% discount so looking for around 80p per share when sold, WH Ireland are saying £1.02 per share when deeps/ shallows proven.

2023 is the year the deeps will be proven to have live moveable oil flowing at commercial rates. Imo.

The question is is one billion barrels OIP a conservative number?