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Go on twatter if you want to chat about your lives or get a room.........geez!

Don't reply.

I'm just wondering if this got blocked and they've had to do a sidetrack as it's taken some time to re-drill, but then again they normally do take about 4 months to complete a well.

I'm guessing the the 802 Deep Well is around 1,800m now, another 600m and they'll be in the shallow oil zones - I wonder if they will test any shallow zones on their way down to the deeper targets, hmm?

The 802 Deep Well is supposed to be the well with the best COS but the usual caveats apply i.e. heat and pressure / mud turning to cement - new acid being used?

Once the 802/ A7 Deep Wells have been completed and they've sidetracked the A5 Deep Well (if capacity is at 5K bopd they will plug these wells until they can increase capacity - if they flow) I think we'll see a big push focusing on the deeps wells overall to prove up Reserves.

So a new CPR next year and hopefully the big bang on the door not long after.

From RNS 27 June 2022.

CASP were producing 3,750 bopd and are aiming for 5K by year end.

‘’All of the oil produced in 2021 was from the MJF structure. The production capacity at the MJF structure has increased to 3,750 bopd, with seven wells producing and a further two wells planned before the year end, including Well 141 which is due to re-enter production shortly following a horizontal drilling workover.’’

‘’Our target with these new wells is as soon as possible to increase production capacity to 5,000 bopd solely from our shallow structures.’’

‘’In 2013, we announced the discovery of the MJF structure and have subsequently drilled eight wells of which seven are currently producing with an aggregate capacity of approximately 3,750 bopd.’’

‘’ Current production capacity
· 4,000 bopd’’

Belles,

No fool, that 1m was a buy.

It's been 5 weeks since the well was last reported on re being nearing re-entering production so news should be imminent - feels like another good well re flow rates being tested, unless of course it got blocked and they've had to do another sidetrack lol.

This is one of two wells to spud in 2H - no mention of another shallow well spudding yet - next Op's RNS on Monday?

80 Deep Well at 1,300m?

Another big trade coming through ;-)

KK,

It takes them 4 months to drill a shallow well to approx. 2,500m.

If you're stressed out now about how long the 141 Well is taking then don't hold your breath with the 802 Deep Well when the drill is still drilling way beyond the 4 months TD estimate you're counting on - will take 6 months by my calcs.

No other shallow well has spud yet - planning for two wells this year 141 being one of them.

Did you ask at the AGM if the 152 Well had spud?

Annual Report – 27 June.

‘’The final deep well required under the BNG Work Programme commitment is Deep Well 802, which spudded in June 2022, with a Total Depth of 5,300 meters and will target oil in the Carboniferous and the Devonian and an initial target at a depth of 4,300 meters. At the date of this report drilling had reached 650 meters without incident’’.

Deep Well 802 - RNS 6 June.

‘’The well has an Total Depth of 5,200 meters targeting oil in the easier to drill Sandstone rather Carboniferous rock, with an initial target at 4,300 meters, and with drilling expected to take 4 months. By using our own rig, with the casing already acquired and by drilling through the easier sandstone, the cash costs are expected to be significantly lower than for previous deep wells’’.

First of all they can’t even get the TD correct?

The well was at 650m after 21 days of drilling averaging 31m per day.

They reckon this well will hit TD in 4 months time – 120 days * 31m per day = 3,720m.

Hmm – 5,300m / 31m per day is nearly 6 months to TD not 4 months at current drill speed. I reckon they are estimating it will take 4 months to hit their initial 4,300m target and not 4 months to TD.

I did say this well will hit TD in December and possibly January – let’s see.

Like I said if this well hits TD in 2 months time I’ll eat my hat.

I don't suppose anyone pressed him 'how much' and got an answer?

" The response was 'the cash has already been put aside" and the inference was that first divi would be soon.

KK,

The 802 Deep Well is not into 2 months of a 4 month drill to TD.

The first target is at 4,300m and expected to be reached in 4 months time and TD 6 months to 5,300m according to CASP.

I will eat my hat if they reach the first target in 4 months (beginning of October) knowing it takes them that to drill a shallow well to 2,500m. It's take them 4 months to drill the A7 Deep Well to a couple of thousand meters for example.

By my calcs the 802 Deep Well will TD around January/ February 2023.

CC, come on sup up lad soon be 5p!

Un,

I said they get paid every 60 days after oil has been loaded onto a tanker, which they do, as they've stated in their IP, but KK said they get paid every month, which they don't. If they stopped production for a month the re-started production wouldn't get paid for 60 days, I wasn't talking about working capital - roll over payments and he knows that. Perhaps KK should have his finance dept explain that to him and you might want to tag along ;-)

I broached this subject when I said if the Russians stopped KAZ exports due to the 30 day maintenance stoppage they were seeking then it would be unlikely CASP would pay out a dividend until oil was flowing again through the ports as they would be lagging at least one month behind on payments, and therefor would not have enough cash in July to pay a dividend.

Anyway they get paid every 60 days........KK is your Company involved in sugar coating?

KK,

like I said they get paid every 60 days for international oil sales, why you no listen.

KK - Russians control CASP/ KAZ oil flow - that's the risk.

‘’The Group's cashflow is sensitive to oil price and volume sold. This is impacted by its current reliance on exporting a portion of its oil sales through the Russian pipeline network. If due to sanctions on Russia, this pipeline network is no longer available, or the discount on oil exported through this network increased over a prolonged period, to continue to generate positive cash the Group would either seek alternative distribution routes via Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan or China or alternatively sell all oil produced on the domestic market or to one of the new mini refineries opening in the region, where prices are typically better than the domestic price and buyers collect the oil from the wellhead. As none of these alternatives have yet been tested, if the oil price achieved or volume sold declined, these factors could result in the Group requiring additional funding.’’ ·
‘’We discussed the potential impact of sanctions against Russia on the Group's operations with management and the Audit Committee including their assessment of risks and uncertainties associated with areas such as production disruption, commodity price volatility and the impact on the availability of funding. This included considering the Group's reliance on selling oil through the Russian pipeline network, and should this no longer be a viable export route, the alternatives available to the Group. ‘’
‘’The Group's cashflow is sensitive to oil price and volume sold. This is impacted by its current reliance on exporting a portion of its oil sales through the Russian pipeline network. If due to sanctions on Russia, this pipeline network is no longer available, or the discount on oil exported through this network increased over a prolonged period, to continue to generate positive cash the Group would either seek alternative distribution routes via Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan or China or alternatively sell all oil produced on the domestic market or to one of the new mini refineries opening in the region, where prices are typically better than the domestic price and buyers collect the oil from the wellhead. As none of these alternatives have yet been tested, if the oil price achieved or volume sold declined, these factors could result in the Group requiring additional funding.’’
‘’Following Russia's invasion of the Ukraine on 24 February 2022, significant economic sanctions were imposed by a number of countries on Russia. While Russian oil was not initially covered by the sanctions the decision by international oil purchasers to boycott Russian oil led to Urals Oil trading at a $30-35 per barrel discount to Brent. As oil produced in Kazakhstan and transported via the Russian pipeline network emerges as Urals Oil this discount has applied to the oil the Group sells on international markets.’’

KK,

If you think the share price has dropped some now wait for confirmation that the CPC is off-line for a month of cough! maintenance.

CASP get paid every 60 days - if the pipeline is confirmed being down for a month (could be longer until the Russian court is happy) I doubt they'll pay a dividend until later in the year, they'd be stupid to pay a dividend until the pipeline is back up and running again. imo.

I said months ago if exports stop they would have sell the bulk of their export oil into the domestic market at $25 pboo, until they can find an alternative route to market, and hey presto what did Carver say in the AGM.

This was a major concern of mine and was appeased when Carver said this would not happen - period....and here we are.

As I've said many times the risk with CASP is the CPC flow being stopped by Russian politics and here we are again.

The question now is will Carver still go ahead with a dividend payment this month?

wolfi,

Answer me this: did the Russians stop the flow of oil due to maintenance?

KK

You're missing the point, the share price decline is due to the very risk of the pipeline being cut off, which is my point.

Do you think Putin's bothered if he ruined a pipeline, he's destroying a country!

Reality check needed mate, the flow is in the Russian's hands no matter how you want to polish it.

If it wasn't for this war there wouldn't be such a risk to CASP and we'd no doubt be in double digits by now having increased production three fold and much much more.

KK,

The Russian’s control the flow of oil through their part of the oil pipeline and control the port. No matter how you interpret it Russia controls the flow of oil and can stop the flow of oil.

‘’CPC said it had submitted an appeal to the court in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk requesting that the enforcement of ruling be suspended to avoid a stoppage that could lead to irrevocable consequences for the pipeline equipment.’’

‘’The United States has imposed sanctions on Russian oil but has said flows from Kazakhstan through Russia should run uninterrupted. The European Union, meanwhile, has said it wants to wean itself off reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027.’’

As I've said many times the share price being low is due to the risk of the CPC being cut off by Russian politics, which is now the case as the Russian courts have ruled a 30 day closure for 'maintenance' due to an oil spill some time ago.

This ruling imo is due to the Kaz President embarrassing Putin live on TV re not supporting the Ukrainian invasion.

The pipeline is still flowing but for how long?

Carver said it wouldn't happen?

The dividend must not go ahead and all spare cash must go towards funding an alternative pipeline route/ additional trucking costs - too many people of gotten used to the idea of getting a quarterly dividend.

Emit the CPC risk and CASP share price will fly - how long will it take for Putin to be replaced/ war to stop - before the risk is reduced to pre-war times?

It's going to a month(s) to re-route CASP oil to mini refineries/ alternative pipeline by truck and therefore see the share price taking a further downward hit. Will a dividend/ increase in oil flow/ Reserves prop up the share price during a pipeline closure?

Only good news is it will be another buying opportunity.

McQueen,

''This is an absolute max 10p company (probably 7/8p)''

I bought and sold these @ 8.95p - 12.75p with nothing close to what they have now, if you need some more ra ra ra comforting re the share price getting into double digits I can always ask KK to tickle your belly with his pom poms.

What did the red sauce say to the Market? it will ketchup soon ra ra ra!!

Yep Tony, it's disappointing re 5K bopd capacity year end until they've built a new pipeline of which they're probably looking at $10 million plus to build one, another reason a dividend shouldn't be paid out this year - the dividend dosh should be used to built a pipeline instead starting today.

Of course a dividend will help lift the share price, but nothing like having 000's more barrels of oil a day running through a new pipeline - dividends can be added next year or so.

Dividend dosh should be spent on flowing A5 now not next year, if they haven't got capacity now for potential 802/A5/A7 oil now they won't have it next year - it will take them at least 6 months to plan/ complete a pipeline - so do it now.

Unless of course they just want to confirm there's billions of barrels of OIP and JV the BNG area thereafter with an appraisal program that's going to have to be funded by the big boys anyway or sell it?