Member Info for somm

KK,

Any decision to partner up won't happen until at least the back end of next year. imo.

Firstly, they will finish drilling the A7 Deep Well (which will take around 4-5 months to complete) after they've sidetracked the A5 Deep Well (which will take around 4-5 months to complete), which could be drilled straight after the current 802 Deep Well according to Carver..........A6 Deep Well thereafter?

They have to finish drilling the A7 Deep Well to complete the 6 well drilling license contract.

If they could drill two of the deep wells simultaneously (A7/A5) that would speed up things to and could see both completed by mid-next year.

If they can get the 801 Deep Well flowing (120 bopd - no incidents) then they can get one of these 2-3 deep wells will flowing too - now they have the know how.

Off to South Africa on safari next month for my birthday, let's hope the 802 Deep Well is the icing on the cake!

With the 802 Deep Well drill bit hovering around 4,600m today I wonder if they will case the well at this depth before heading down to 5,300m TD like they did with the A5 Deep Well when the shallower intervals produced 3,800 bopd?

If the interval(s) are flowing oil - significant oil shows were already seen by the time the drill bit had reached 3,800m - I expect they would stop and case below the intervals and then drill deeper, we may get an update re casing, but more likely to get a RNS at TD.

Around 13 November for TD?

NN,

You're wrong mate, they have learned a lot about the deep structures and flowed the 801 Deep Well having hit TD without incident at 5,300m, unfortunately the 120 bopd they managed to pump was not in commercial quantities - looks like they've solved the mud density problem or else it wouldn't have flowed it at all, which bodes well for the 802 Deep Well.

The 802 Deep Well drill bit will be hovering around the 4,600m mark, which is very looking good with significant oil shows already - they only have to drill another 700m to TD.

Thus far at 3,800m no stuck pipes or camera's!

I wouldn't be surprised if they're currently flow testing one or two intervals before casing the final stretch of the well.

In the next few weeks we'll know if it's commercial or not, I'm betting it is.

NN,

Around 45p would give CASP a market cap of around £1b not billions and very possible.

The deep wells have flowed and proven there’s light moveable oil in the deeper structures (A5 & A6) with the A7 Deep Well still to drill through the salt layer 1,000m+ from when drilling stopped and 5,300m to TD , I’m confident there will be light moveable oil (commercial flow rates) from this well too, these deep wells are not just exploration wells but appraisal wells proving up a structure many tens of kilometers in size with billions of barrels of OIP to boot - prove up.

The point is the OIP number across the 58sq km Argyle license/ structure is already very significant and will be shown to be that in the next CPR, the Majors will know what’s down there through the data room and will no doubt prove up the P1/P2/2C numbers etc. With or without CASP.

It will happen re flowing the deeps and proving up the initial P1/P2/2C numbers through next year/ 2024 where I’d guess that’s when CASP will do a new CPR – and the TO/ merger gate is opened.

Lot’s will have happened with CASP over the next 18 months and hopefully the Ukrainian war is over decreasing the risk factor/ increasing the oi price and upping the eventual TO price.

CASP haven’t detailed very much technical information on the deeps and have kept their cards close to their chest with the basics, once the new CPR is out confirming a vast reservoir(s) I wouldn’t be surprised to see the WCP forced to cash in soon after.

It's taken a very long time to get the deeps flowing and believe they will focus more on sorting the deeps now there seems to be a 5k bopd production cap on the shallows, proving commercial quantities of light oil in the deeps are there - as they say in potentially 'vast' numbers. imo.

NorwayNellie,

In that case you should change your name to NowayNellie!

Belles,

Pull the other one.

2023 WILL be the year!!

Get this 802 Deep Well flowing along with finishing the A7 Deep Well and getting the A5 Deep Well flowing again, and the share price will be in the big double digits without the shallows/ dividends/CE / 3AB to boot.

2023 will be the year.

KK,

I thought you said they’d be TD by now ; - )

I doubt very much (with 3 or 4 weeks to go) they will report anything on the 802 Deep Well until TD, confirming how many intervals there are and hopefully what the commercial flow rate is.

CE tender being accepted this year is the elephant in the room re a one off dividend (on top of quarterly dividends) for Xmas? A six month drilling contract should get us a large upfront chunk of a $20+ million deal.

As I said it will take a while to solve the rising water problem in the shallow well(s) - months if ever, and hey who knows we might get a few photos deep down in the 142 Well of gushing oil this month ; - ).

I don’t think they have completed the 6 Deep Well license commitment yet until the A7 Deep Well has drilled into the lower structure of the A7 Deep Well, pretty sure 2,100m isn’t classed as a deep well when TD is 5,300m, so both the A7 and A5 Deep Wells will be the next wells to be worked on (hopefully both at the same time) this year and early next year, who know they may even spud the elusive 151 Horizontal Shallow Well before year end, after all they did say they would spud 2 wells in 2H, but....

I said early last year 2023 would be the year and it’s definitely looking that way.

The 802 Deep Well should be in the interval(s) zones today and TD should be around 13 November if the drill bit is still averaging 31m per day.

Will it be a Remembrance Sunday to remember?

We've around 6 weeks before the 802 Deep Well hits TD and I don't see any news about the shallow wells coming back into production for another month and I very much doubt we'll see any other news (dividend/CE/ 3AB etc.) in the short term so yep sub 2p is looking very likely to happen this week - who'd have thought we'd see sub 2p again?

If the 802 Deep Well does have a gross oil column from 3,800m to 4,900m (TD 5,300m) and also has 5 intervals as with the 801 Deep Well, what would the net oil column is is what I’m looking forward to finding out, this well could be a whopper. The 802 Deep Well the best COS and if it flows commercially (highly probable) we’d be looking at a reservoir of around 13km sq – was the 801 Deep Well nearer to the structures boundary? If there are al least 5 intervals each ranging between 5m-20m net thick would be a real game changer for us - on this smaller structure ‘- ).

With a couple of the shallow wells sorted by year end with the spudding of the 151 Horizontal Well, boat contracted out and dividend pay out I think I might have to order the Christmas turkey early this year or would that be a golden goose?

I’m just glad we’ve got a couple of more months to pick up more shares in the 2p range.

''then they deal with the 141 wells stuck pipe to boot''.

The 142 Well rather.

Wolfi - just noticed you said target and 4,300m not TD.

Wolfi, your calculator must be broken.

TD is 5,300m not 4,300m and with 1,500m still to drill at an average drill speed of 31m per day the 802 Deep Well should hit TD at the end of November perhaps early December as I've said before.

My earlier posts regarding where the drill depth would be have been bang on, the drill bit is still averaging 31m per day from 650m so the end of November is likely to see the 802 Deep Well TD.

KK said it would hit TD within 4 months? like said if it did I would eat my hat - my hat is firmly back on the shelf. lol!

They had $5M at 30 June in the bank, I said they would have $6M+ in the bank Septembers end, they've more like $8M today.

802 Deep Well has drilled through the salt layer and has encountered significant oil shows - looking like the A5 Deep Well at this stage - 4,300m interval coming up with commercial flow rates to boot stuck pipes and cameras aside.

142/ 145 Shallow Wells have rising water cuts, 141 has a stuck pipe which will be brought back on line after the rising water cut issue has been resolved and then they deal with the 141 wells stuck pipe to boot. I wonder if they'll drill a deeper sidetrack into the interval to pump - how thick is the interval?

Along with shallow wells sorted and 802 flowing commercially and dividend paid out by year end to boot, year end isn't looking to bad imo.

KK, that's what they've said they intend to do, but you're missing the point, they could do them all together and not one by one if they didn't pay a dividend out, which will be in the millions of dollars. If they drill/ sidetrack these deep wells one by one it be nearing the end of 2023 by the time they've drilled them!

They could buy another rig capable of drilling 5,000m+ instead of paying a dividend out to boot.

My view is they should be throwing all their spare cash and the kitchen sink at the deeps to get them flowing properly and not with paying out dividends - along with $800,000 per quarter for BNG license fees ++++

Throwing $3-$5 million on a first dividend would be much better spent on getting A5/ A6 Deep Wells flowing again or finishing the A7 Deep Well - seems stupid not to complete the A7 Deep Well before paying out a dividend.

We don't know if the 151 Shallow Well has spud or if the 141 has become a producer.

CAB amount will be interesting to see next week.

All of April, May and June payments should have been received by now, we had $1 million in the bank 1 June, so hopefully they should have had approx. 2,600 bopd (70%) exported at $42 pb = $9.8m and 1,100 bopd sold into the domestic market at $25 pb for these three months = approx. $2.5m.

Total net revenue should be around the $12 million mark since 1 June plus the million dollars they had in the bank 1 June = $13m less drilling/ admin costs?

I reckon CASP should currently have around $6m in the bank - 1 September.

Enough to tell us what the dividend payment will be in October?

A more appropriate thread title.

RIP Queen Elizabeth 11.

We haven't had an Operational Update for three months is it because they want an average 30 day share price for dividend reasoning i.e. holding off on 141/802 updates, has the 151 shallow well spud, so there's no share price spike and they can for example work on a 5% dividend based on the share price? quite unusual for CASP not to post an Op's Update for 3 months (27/06 annual report aside).

Belles you know what they say, no not pull the other one, but everything comes in threes ;-)

Yep and with positive 141/802 update and dividend news we could see a decent rise, that's decent not descent ;- )