Member Info for somm

The Yelemes Deep structure which extends over an area of 36 km2 was producing between 700-900 bopd from the 802 Deep Well from the unknown oil interval(s) between 3,900m and 4,000m was discovered before drilling a further 100m to 4,100m - how many intervals and more bopd when fully perforated between 3,900m-4,100m will this section produce in commercial quantities? Then there's the 4 intervals to drill into deeper down as discovered with the 801 Deep Well to boot - how far do these intervals stretch of the 36 km2?

The A5 Deep Well stretches 58 km2 and flowed commercial oil (circ. 3,800 bopd for a few weeks) before becoming blocked.

We know there's hundreds of millions of Recoverable barrels of oil on these licenses and that's been proven and interested parties will be interested in topping up their Reserves as their Reserves dwindle. CASP is surrounded by the Majors - get the deeps out of the way and kick in the FDP next year and let's see who blinks first.

A share price drop between news is always going to happen as we've seen over the past month or so, bear in mind when a bid comes in it won't be for say 50% of 6p - more like 60p+ - who knows multiple bids?

The thing is we will have completed the deeps by Q1 next year and the share price will have had a run up and the next phase of CASP begins re the Appraisal program - will the Majors want apart or all of CASP?

These sells are all round numbers (50k/100k) and about 1 minute apart (800K) and lead me to think this is one investor selling.

There's is no evidence of bad news as CASP keep a very tight ship and if there was a leak there'd be a lot more sells than 800K.

Only 'potential bad' news I can see is they've had to re-sidetrack the 802 Deep Well due to a blockage on the other hand they've decided to continue drilling the original 5,200m TD.

Some peeps need the dosh or get bored waiting on news so after 3 months of waiting for an Op's Update there's nothing unusual going on here. imo.

It’s been over three months since the below G70 rig purchase was announced, which should have been completed way before the end of January 2023 so where’s it at with re-drilling the A7 Deep Well?

They say it’s a ‘new’ rig, but is it really a secondhanded rig and being upgraded through maintenance I wonder hence the delay in spudding news?

It shouldn’t take say two months to mobilize and assemble the rig if the purchase went ahead in January so it’s either about to spud/ spudded or it’s being/ been under repair since it was purchased, I’m guessing the latter.

Unless of course it has recently spud and they’re just waiting to throw this news in with a full on Operations Update?

‘’22 December 2022

A new G70 rig, on which we expected to complete the purchase in the next few weeks, will be used to resume drilling at Deep Well A7, which was paused at a depth of 2,150 meters.’’

‘’4 November 2022

Work is also planned to resume drilling at Deep Well A7 from a depth of 2,175 meters as rigs and crews become available.’’

As usual patience is needed with all things CASP - will the A7 Deep Well be another commercial flowing A5 Deep Well without the problems this time - the A8 Deep Well hit TD with no incidents etc. so fingers crossed this well comes good.

I have a few thoughts about what might be happing with the 802 Deep Well.

Firstly, after perforating the interval(s) of the well between 3,900m and 4,100m - I think due to the length of time it’s taking for an update on the ‘new’ flow rate the perforated holes could have been blocked with rocks and fluid, therefore they’re either re-pressurizing the well to try and shift any blockages (it takes time for the well to re-pressurize and could take a few attempts) or they haven’t been able to do this and have decided to drill a sidetrack on this section, which could take until months end. If that’s the case then I’d guess mid-next month for a flow rate update after new casing/ perforating – flow testing.

Secondly, they have completed drilling the well to 4,100m and decided to drill ahead to the original 5,200m TD hoping to intersect the same 4 net-pay intervals found in 801 Deep Well. If that were the case then I’d expect TD to happed within the next 2 weeks if drilling at say 25m per day, and we could be looking at at least 5 intervals to flow test giving an overall flow rate and info on how thick each interval is and how much each interval flows at. The flow rates could be massive given the thickness of the intervals thicknesses re 801 Deep Well if found to be flowing in the 802 Deep Well.

If the well is flowing between 3,900m-4,100m I don’t think it would take 7 weeks to do the initial work and flow test it unless it’s the mother of all gushers, then we would have to wait another month+ to hit the 5,200m TD.

I’d like to think it’s the second assumption and we’re simply waiting for the drill bit to hit TD.

Just doodling as per......

Exactly and with 5 deep wells and a new shallow well (155) on the cards to drill this year who in their right mind wouldn't want to be invested until these wells/other have been completed.

Selling out now in the single digits will be looked upon as a crime by year end.

2023 is the year.

TT,

Do me a favour and ask ii the question. Why would it kick in with HL and not ii??

TT,

Same here about 15 years ago lost dosh due to naively having a stop loss in place on an AIM stock.

I recently double checked with HL if I had a stop loss in place would it kick in at the opening price regardless of my strike price and they said yes.

So I assumed there's no guarantee?

No one should have a stop loss strike price on an AIM share ever.

For example JOG opened 70+% down kicking in stop losses that were set at whatever (20%?) meaning they immediately sold out with a 70% loss jumping their 20% stop loss strike price, JOG were back at the previous close price by the afternoon.

Never put put a stop loss on a very volatile stock, no problems with FTSE100 stocks like TESCO that may gradually lose 10% for example.

If those large sells were due to a stop loss kicking in I have no sympathy for them.

We know the A5/802 Deep Wells have flowed commercial qualities of oil and the the A7 Deep Well has yet to see drilling restarted, but I'm pretty sure they will go back and sidetrack the A6 well which flowed oil to surface before becoming blocked and the 801 Deep Well which saw them perforate 75m of the 110m net-pst I tervals which again became blocked with rocks and fluid.

I personally believe we'll see all 5 deep wells revisited and positive results by year end/ Q1 and plan on staying fully invested until then and some.

Top slicer will have been well and truly scalped by then.

I make the 802 Deep Well to be on track with no evidence of there being a problem re any delays, investors always get anxious nearing TD. Remember the well was flowing for 3 days and wasn’t under control and bear in mind they were still to drill another 100m to 4,100m, if there were other intervals that were flowing deeper down in the last 100m they may have had to get the interval(s) under control too over a few days. Then cement the well from 2,416m to 4,300m and then case the well (200m+?) and then perforate the interval(s) and flow test each interval (3 days per interval??). The laboratory would be testing the API and each intervals thickness blah blah blah.

No, the well is on track if you add up the days to do the above which will depend on how many intervals are flowing and how long it will take BH/ drill team to get those intervals under control – I’m guessing there’s more than one interval.

Like I’ve said I reckon they will cement the well to 4,300m, however what if they’ve decided to stay Schum and continue drilling down to the original 5,200m TD? If that were the case then we wouldn’t get news until months end – they had to make the same decision with the A5 Deep Well.

Though I still think we will get news this/ next week.

Just doodling.

K,

I simply divided the $15M by 60 months to get $250K per day, in the earlier RNS it said after costs, but I've just noticed Carver has quoted $150K per month so yeah more Carverspeak, but I'm going with $15M Net for two months.

SP1 - please let us know what Carver says and can you ask him how long have they been flow testing this 802 gusher. ;- )

K,

No, they previously said it was $15M after all costs hence $15M Net.

If they find oil they could carry on drilling into November 2024 ($30M for 2024) if they completed the well mid-summer.

The drilling window this year is May-November so still plenty of time to hire CE out this year.

Plenty of dosh for a new CPR/ FDP next year with the added coffers to boot.

I doubt we will see £3m dividend payout in June and instead see the 35%-40% kick in in May dividend announcement, because we should see an increase in CASP's coffers from 802 Deep Wells test production and last/this/ next months production - monthly payments.

I noticed there wouldn't be an upfront payment for the CE charter and the payment will be spread at $250K per day for at least 60 days.

Op's Update next.

Multi ;- )

As we know the 802 Deep Well was producing 700-900 bopd before the well was perforated with previous production at 2,400 bopd so we could see overall production double on the back of the 802 Deep Well this month - meaning with last months test production and new oil payments adding to the coffers this month we could see the dividend double in April for a bumper May payment, especially if they manage to bring the 141-142 shallow wells back online this month as indicated - so we could be looking at around 6,000 bopd in March/ April with the 35%-40% of free cash flow dividend kicking-in in May.

If the above wells come in then we’ll be looking at double digits this month, 20p? imo.

It's highly likely we will get a RNS next week with a well update and hopefully the perforating of the well and flow testing has gone smoothly.

If it's a detailed update we may get to know how thick this net-pay interval(s) is between the 3,900m-4,100m oil bearing column and a mention of it stretching X km.

If there's more than one interval that flowing then what can we expect?

The initial flow rate of 700-900 bopd from the open hole is expected to increase (by 2-3 times?) and if there's another interval(s) that flows between 4,000m-4,100m to boot what could the total flow rates be, and have they decided to drill down to the initial 4,300m TD and was that an oil zone of interest too that flows?

Again just doodling.

With a $30 billion spend going on at Tengiz do you think they've got another $30 billion for Elevengiz?

May be not, but the Chinese do and will be eyeing CASP too.

Billions of barrels of OIP on their doorstep.

Ring ring ring ring...hello...it's the Chinese here and we would like to offer you £2 billion.... sorry, but I think you've got the wong number. ;- )

Yes E that's right and people in the North will think you're on drugs.

E by gum lad............

I'd take the estimated full value with pinch of salt.

They have multiple intervals of 'net-pay' oil ranging between 5m-59m thick from at least two deep structures that stretch or many kilometers and now they have at least one more interval(s) (how thick?) that will have a boundary stretching many more kilometers from the well e.g. if this new new net-pay interval was say only 10m thick (only lol!) and was 5km square how many barrels of oil would that interval hold with a RF of 30%?

If these intervals flow (at least 6) right across the 13km-58km structures then 102p is out of the window and we'll have an Eleven-gis.

Just prove the deeps flow commercially this coming year and hold on to your hate.

We know the A5/A6/801 Deep Wells have live moveable oil and now the 802 Deep Well with the A7 Deep Well soon to be proven up.

If they can flow the A8 Deep Well (120 bopd none commercial) with no problems getting to TD then they can flow these.

21p fair value and £1.02 full value.

These estimates will need revisiting especially now the found an unexpected a shallower 'deep' gross oil column around 100m-200m thick.

They said they were happy with the last CPR but how can they be with this newly discovered oil bearing shallow zone that flows?

A new CPR will now be warranted so new CPR and an offer this/next year to boot?