Member Info for somm

Uncertain,

Your humor needs delivering better, sorry got to go the baby's on it's way 😉

SmartyP1,

There's a good chance the A5 Deep Well will spud next week with the rig being onsite - TD end of May if we're lucky.

We may not know when the A5 sidetrack has begun as they've been including spuds within general Operational Updates so we may not get another op's RNS until the 155 Shallow Well has been completed next month?

Any news on license updates or a Specialist onboard to remove the 802 stuck pipe I would expect to be in a separate RNS.

We should see another 500k trade today ;-)

Divermike,

Just to add Block 8 was producing 800 bopd before the pressure dropped from the 2 wells.

More research needed m8 ; -)

SmartyP1,

From the last RNS.

''The licence renewal is also required to allow the resumption of production at Block 8 and to allow testing of the two Block 8 deep wells completed in 2023.''

Divermike,

Block 8 was producing 110 bopd from 2 wells on the first structure.

Uncertain,

So the fella who keeps saying he wants out has just bought 440k shares. Nope and nope.

End of.

Uncertain,

How does 440,000 shares sold at 50p = £30,000?

I'll leave that with you...

Anyway did anyone notice Block 8 has stopped production?

So your just south of a HALF million shares...........

Mrcautious,

Yesterday you said - ''I am just south of 500K as I have said this was never a major holding for me...''.

Yet just over a week ago you said - ''Well 50p would be nice but im not heavily in this stock so even 50p would only net me about £30k.'' - Which by my maths means you would have to be holding around 60,000 shares.

This time last year you said - ''I only hold about 200K''. - hmm obviously you've been buying more since then.

So your just south of a million shares would be worth around £20,000 today and 500,000 shares if sold at 50p would be worth £250,000.

Are my maths wrong or do I smell BS - care to explain how 50p would net you £30,000 today if you have approx. 500,000 shares?

I'm in New York atm and have heard on the grapevine a WCP contact has been over heard saying a supermajor has tabled a $501,000,000 bid for the Shallows of which $500,000,000 is being paid out as a one-off dividend leaving $1 million in the kitty to keep the lights on, and also CASP are in talks with The Bank of England to raise a loan to cover the whole of the one-off payment!

Coffeemug will be pleased. ;- )

Coffeemug,

I like a good wine and Cork is a lovely place thanks - maybe one day you'll be able to afford to go?

Anyway enjoy your glass of Thunderbirds - don't worry you'll be able to buy a nice bottle of wine with your $200 million dividend share.

MMMMMWWWWWHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Coffeemug,

Sorry, was that to me or the bloke next to me?

Gooly gooly

Where's my pence per share? I take it your maths are are bad as your grammar.....

Coffeemug,

Sure was.

Sorry I didn't understand your reply were you implying you're playing with the blokes goolies whose sat next to you?

Tell me how many pence per share is 50% of $200m dividend payout per share to shareholders?

I may have to get a bigger calculator to work out my one-off payment lol!

You always throw a psychotic wobbler when I tick you off for posting nonsense, wonky entertainment at it's best!

There'll soon be a $200 million dividend paid out and a gigantic loan to replace it!

You couldn't make it up.

BM,

Don't be fooled with his guff he's deadly serious.

Entertainment at its best.

"If the shallows get $300k he can take 50% of any dividend, he can leave some in for deeps field development and borrow the rest."

You couldn't make it up. Lol

Coffeemug,

Better you keep your toffee shoot shut and let peeps think you're numpty than open it and prove it........oh hang on!

Coffeemug.

With $300 million in the back + CE dosh why would they have to raise cash, you're an idiot.

Looking forward to a $200 million dividend. lol you numpty.

SmartyP1,

The 70k barrels per month will be coming from the shallows (3k+ bopd). This is the expected amount of oil CASP will continue to produce if they don't sell the shallows, they have to continue with this 70k line because they may not sell the shallows.

As for a special dividend there will be one but how much will depend on the sales price of the shallows. Do not listen to Coffeemug spouting nonsense like KO will be taking a $100 million special one-off payment - if he did give himself $100m then shareholders would have to get the same amount and CASP are not going to pay out a $200 million one-off payment.

CASP will have a ton of cash from the sale of the shallows of which the bulk will go towards the FDP.

Think about it, here's some round numbers - say $20m for 15k bopd storage tank (they will need a couple if Block 8 is a gusher), $20m for pipeline, 4 wells per pad from A5/A6/A7 and 801/ 802/ 803 deep wells that's approx. $120m for 24 appraisal wells, then there's the development of Block 8 another 6 wells? and more 3D seismic data to gather there's $200 million just there and they will probably want to keep $50 million in cash to keep the lights on and for other projects (solar/ mineral mining projects etc..).

So if CASP are lucky enough to get anywhere near $300m there could be a large one-off dividend payment split between the WCP and shareholders, I'd guess around $20 million, less if a lower offer is accepted? What happens if they only sell one shallow structure - special dividend $5 million?

The shallow production will be replaced with production from the deeps - they've got 5 deep BNG wells currently being worked on and 2 deep wells on Block 8 to test - with so much spare cash they will have plenty of time to get the deep oil flowing before running out of cash, we'll probably see deep oil flowing this year anyway replacing the shallow oil production. The A5 deep well was initially pumping 3,800 bopd and that was without all the drilling fluid removed, this well alone can replace the shallow oil, we'll get to know in May.

If they got $10 bucks for the 1P Reserves there's $150 million and if they can move 15 million barrels over from the 2P Reserves to the 1P Reserves that's $300 million (plus potential Reserves/ bidding war etc..).

When you have a number of Majors bidding a sale will happen.

Anyway that's the way I see it mostly panning out so don't worry about the coffers being blown on a one-off dividend, it's not going to happen.

The two shallow structures have around 14m 1P and 25m 2P Reserves with new Reserves still to add from the new Dolomite structure (will they do a new CPR after the 155 well? increasing Reserves and therefore the bid - after 10 years since the last CPR we have a lot more wells and shallow production to factor in, which should uplift the current Reserves).

When we know the offer price for the two shallow structures it should give us a good idea of what price the buyer is putting on the shallow Reserves, which will lead to us being able to guestimate a rough price the two deep BNG structures might be sold for.

A new BNG CPR will have to be done at some point (perhaps this year after A5/A7/802/803 Deep Well results and full deep licenses granted). The 1P/ 2P Reserve numbers should be much higher than the shallows with the deep structures being much bigger (more valuable lighter oil to boot).

So as an example if bigger Airshagyl structures initial 1P Reserves were say 50m and the 2P Reserves were 100m and the smaller Yelemes Deep structure had say 40m 1P and 80m 2P (OIP could be 1-2 billion) we could times the sale price of the shallow Reserves by $X amount to give an idea of what the BNG deeps were worth.

If the shallows were sold for say $300 million? then we could be looking at a billion dollars plus for the deeps. There's going to be a premium for future 'potential' Reserves added no matter (the OIP could have a 30% plus RF?).

Remember what we finally get pence wise per share will depend on the $/£ exchange rate, the pound has been strengthening against the dollar - we want a weak pound. 

Who knows what happens re T/O, but one things for sure, if there are multiple Majors bidding for the Shallows they'll be multiple Majors bidding for the Deeps!

Anyway just doodling.....

Do they get the shares if T/O is say $1B.?

As for example M/C will be higher than $800M, but won't have been for a month.

If T/O is over 36p do their various price target shares kick-in granting them all those shares even though the share price wouldn't have stayed atbthe various prices for a month?

If a T/O happens do they only get paid on the shares they already have?

I've not checked the above, has anyone?

...a few weeks later.

Just to add if the A5 Deep Well is successful they could start drilling the A7 Deep Well again in May, which should take about 4/5 months to hit 5,300m TD, at the current snail drill pace the 803 Deep Well could TD not long after.