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My bet is the next RNS will be an Op's Update confirming at least one of three wells are flowing (A5/155/806) and the CE/ B8 license will be still pending.

The BIG news will be if they've managed to get a Specialist onboard as it means if they can pull the stuck pipe out the flow rates should be 1,000+ bopd - which in turn means they can do the 90 day flow test, then have GC help book the deep Reserves on the NY structures along with the Airshagyl structure - both the A5/802 Deep Wells could come in around the same time, with the glacial paced 803 Deep Well nearing TD to boot.

If you guys think there are a lot of sellers now just wait until the next RNS confirms a deep is flowing/ MJF sold etc..

We've recently seen millions of shares sold in the 3p-4p range and this will continually happen as the share price rises only to fall back until the next RNS hits, it will take many months for the share price to be underpinned at a higher level as sellers move on lessening the PI share pot in the 1p-4p bought range.

One or two on here have already indicated they have sold millions of shares, what do you think they will do when the share price hits 10p+ and the LTH that want out now?

Not long left to buy around the 3p mark, one-two weeks?

Yep, 2H will be the start if the end game.

GC will book Reserves after the A5 Deep Well has flowed for 90 days, I don't this GC will do this until the other structures wells (802/3) have both completed their 90 day flow test too along with a 90 day flow test on the two Block 8 wells, floowed by the A7 Deep Well flow test. By year end all these wells will have been/ being flow tested so I don't expect a new CPR until year end/ Q1 next year.

The G40 rig was on the A5 Deep Well site 6 weeks ago so expect this well will have spud the 400m sidetrack by now.

News month end or when the 155/806 Shallow Wells have flow tested imo with positive news on a contract signed with a Specialist to remove the stuck 802 Deep Well pipe and maybe the 141 stuck 27m pipe to boot.

With CE dosh and possible shallow sale and new oil production added CASP are going to be in a very strong position.

Reserves in the hundreds of millions and a big cash pile and 10k? bopd CASP won't be aroundvl for long.

The below comment is from a few years ago, since then we have the NY and Block 8 Reserves to consider too.

''We are preparing to commence a formal 90 day flow test, following which we plan to instruct Gaffney Cline to help assess the quantity of reserves associated with the Airshagyl structure.''

GC are going to have their work cut out with 4-5 drilled deep structures to now assess, they won't just do a CPR for Airshagyl structure.

A new CPR from GC will no doubt be conservative somewhat - year end/ early 2025?, I wouldn't be surprised to see 1P/2P Reserves knocking on 100m+ barrels from these massive structures., regardless if the light oil isn't flowing due to blockages etc. the oil is there and the seismic data/ well data will prove it, and in no small numbers.

At WHI have the P1/P2 Reserves (Shallow Reserves $$) at $8 bucks a barrel that works out at $800m per 100m barrels of 1P/2P barrels - funny that ain't it Clive/ KO.

And note the deeps have lighter oil and are more valuable to boot.

Now bear this in mind, the shallow 1P/2P Reserves currently stand at approx. 40m barrels at WHI $8 per barrel, no doubt the deep oil 1P/2P Reserves will dwarf this.

3.4p - is someone having a laugh..........

That's co's he talks sh ite.

Let's hope so ;-)

Re the CE,

Planned drilling is for 62 days * $150k per day = $9,300,000 plus a 15 day possible delay is factored in = total $11,550,000.

So very unlikely to get anywhere near $15 million, especially if drilling is faster than expected.

To rephrase - the trading license won't be sold with the shallows.

SmartyP1,

The production license is owned by CASP's trading company, it won't be included with the shallows sale, however if someone does buy the shallows they will most likely use CASP's trading company to sell the oil.

The Majors that are involved in Tengiz, that could be in the fray for the MJF shallows, will have the knowledge of how to crack the deeps so I wouldn't rule a Major out, plus the big boys will have got their foot in the door for when KO is ready for a deep sale.

Don't forget CASP will have spent around $70m thus far developing the shallows so to accept $100m as you suggest is unlikely, imo.

SmartyP1,

No doubt the Reserves will have dropped over time, however the shallow structures size will have widened with further out wells and Dolomite structure.

CASP indicated there were more than one interested party in the negotiates, if there are multiple bids (I remember Cove Energy bids between Shell/ PPTEP were fun to watch) being tabled the price per barrel may not be so much of importance as to the replacing of the bidders Reserves - Potential Reserves and having a foot hold to bid on the deeps later.

Three of the worlds top ten oil companies are around the corner......

SmartyP1,

Could you please explain what price pboo you have for 40m 1P/P2 Reserves and explain how you come up with that $ pboo? with new wells/ Dolomite that could be higher now.

I've done $5 pboo calc's, WHI have said $8 pboo, WHI have said shallows are worth 8p - that's also over $200m.

They are now getting $33+ pboo not $16 and can export the shallow oil for a higher price.

It's so annoying when someone says 'oh I don't think that they will get X....' without even trying to back their comments up or even understand what they're saying....

Block 8 was pumping 800 bopd down from 110 bopd (now stopped until license renewed) and was valued between $100m-$400m.

BTW.

The A8 Deep Well did flow 120 bopd form one of the three intervals, but was deemed uncommercial.

The A5 Deep Wells rig (G40) was onsite 6 weeks ago, as I've said they haven't included individual spuds taking place for sometime, they've only been letting is know in a full Op's Update if a spud has taken place, the 155 Shallow Horizontal Well for example when it was at 1,000m - by my calc's this well should come in nearer month end.

......A new deep CPR next year would then give us an idea of what the BNG deeps 1P/2P Reserves are worth to boot.

SmartyP1,

Since the MJF for sale news was RNS'd I've been thinking about the 'what if they decided to buy back shares option' having a huge cash pile from the MJF sale plus CE dosh.

If they do get any where near $200m for both MJF shallow structures they could easily buy back say 1 billion shares for $50m at 4p per share today, though by the time that happened the share price would most likely be in the double digits range with what's going on in the short term, so probably a lot less shares would be bought back by then if they took that option.

My guess it once they've finished with 801/A6 Deep Wells (this year?) the MJF dosh will mostly be used for their BNG appraisal program and Block 8/ WS drilling campaigns and possible mineral mining/ wind projects as indicated.

I hope an appraisal program fast tracks a merger or take over.

What's also interesting is CASP haven't done a new CPR for the shallows in 8 years? so how many 1P/2P Reserves do they have now - the date room is open so may be the buyer could have a 'potential' guess?

WHI have 1P/2P Reserves at $8 pboo when CASP were getting $16 pboo for local sales, they are getting $33 pboo today and can now sell the shallow oil internationally with 70k lifts per months, giving them more than $33 pboo.

I'm thinking my $200m guestimate for both shallows could be too conservative.

If a sale goes through for the shallows we'll get to know what KO is asking for 1P/2P Reserves per barrel.

would the give us an idea of what the BNG deeps

Belles,

I use oil to cook my sausages not Brasso. 😉

Fast forward that article to today and 8 deep BNG wells now drilled they'll have a decent idea of what's down there, 802, 803, A5, A7 should flow this year with rigs being freed up to drill the 801 and A6 Deep Wells to boot.

2H should be fun.

Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4116716-caspian-sunrise-hits-target-in-oil-rich-kazakhstan-what-now

There's some interesting commentary in the attached link from 7 years ago.

What is mind melting is if CASP can prove up 730m barrels of 2P Reserves, and using WH Irelands $8 per 2P barrel of oil would value CASP's oil Reserves at approx. $6 billion.

Not far off £2 per share - making several on here multi-millionaires to boot.

Like I said the price of oil is significantly up from then and they're getting $33 pboo now not $16-$20 so who knows?

Will there be a one pound takeover party, I wouldn't rule it out.

''Shows that the 800 wells and A wells are connected which is why they are being put on the same license as per RNS''. 

Coffeemug,

There you go again making stuff up, both deep structures are expected to flow this year hence the international license being applied for. CASP/ other have pointed out several times that the deeps are not connected, show us where it says the two BNG deep structures are connected......more research needed as per.

The WCP are not going to be able to shift scores/100's of millions of shares when the share price is in the 20p's so they'll have to wait mostly for a T/O to cash in - the pressure to sell will be on.

Pretty sure they won't want to be waiting around too long and would consider offers coming in when the share price is 20p+ with a very decent premium to boot.

Next year Rodder's.

''21 Dec 2023 - Deep Well 803, the final deep well under the current work programme, has been spudded with drilling now past 200 meters without incident. probably spud at the beginning of December.''

''25 March 2024 - Drilling has reached a depth of 1,250 meters without incident.''

Drilling has taken them 3 months to drill 1,250m - that's an average of approx. 14m per day, the well was supposed to take 4 months to drill. They could be at around 2,000m when we get the next Op's RNS if they speed up, so it's looking like another 4-5 months TD.

They've officially been in talks with a Specialist to pull the stuck pipe out of the 802 Deep Well since 25 March, how long does it take to sign a deal, news could be out anytime with the 141 Shallow Wells 17m stuck pipe to boot.

It will be interesting to see what the deal is re $ pboo and for how many barrels etc.?

2H as said many times should be Company making........

''21 Dec - A G70 rig recently acquired from Sinopec is being tested with the resumption of drilling at Deep Well A7. ''

''16 Feb - At Deep Well A7 we plan to use the G70 rig we are in the process of acquiring to resume drilling from a depth of approximately 2,150 meters where drilling was paused to allow other wells to be drilled.''

G70 rig 21 Dec 2023 - recently acquired  /  16 Feb 2024 - we are in the process of acquiring.

Like I said it looks like they haven't fully paid for it yet, hence the A7 Deep Well delay, and the seller has probably put a block on using it until they get their dosh?

''drilling was paused to allow other wells to be drilled.''

Yeah right, chuckle.

MLQ,

What are you talking a bout?

And if that were the case why are there discussions with multiple buyers?

''The Board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the BNG shallow structures''

And:

''Recently the market discount on oil produced in Kazakhstan but transported via the Russian pipeline network has all but disappeared for international consignments of approximately 70,000 barrels per month and greater.''

So they can sell their oil internationally through the Russian pipeline now with pretty much no discount.

More research needed.