Member Info for somm

You assume everyone's selling like you, well they're not, but thank you for passing over the few shares you have, every little helps.

Next you'll be saying CASP will get $83m on 8 August......oh hang on. lol!

Yep, you're selling and we're buying.

No doubt Coffeemug you live in a vegetative state Sire.

DM,

Fun fact.

A broccoli has an IQ of 2, which is twice that of Coffeemug.

Did you manage to see you two kids at the weekend weekend dad?

The CE reminds me of Coffeemug.

The lights are on but nobody's home.

The main reason why the share price has been held around the 3p mark:

The BNG license expires 8 August 2024.

The West Shalva deal has yet to be signed off by the Energy Ministry so no new shallow oil income is possible yet to replace the BNG shallows if sold.

The BNG shallows sale won't complete for months and it isn't guaranteed to go through.

The Block 8 license renewal is still waiting on the glacial pace of the Energy Ministry to sign it off, one cannot believe CC's timelines when it's already been months (he said weeks way back in April - he has no control over the Energy Ministry's laborious decision making).

Once these licenses have been renewed the market will breathe a big sigh of relief and the share price should correct somewhat combined with the 2H operations coming into play in Q3. This is why the market has taken the booking of circ. 80m barrels of 1C/ 2C Reserves with a large pinch of salt even with perhaps another 50m barrels to be booked in in September after the 803 Deep Well results have been factored into the Russian 1C/ 2C Reserves count, by then BNG license has hopefully been renewed beforehand in the coming month.

I don't doubt these licenses/ deals will not go through, but the market wants to be assured the Company's assets are not a going concern, hopefully these concerns will prove to be water under the bridge very soon.

We know what's coming operationally in the coming months, but the market doesn't give a hoot and wants to see the licenses renewed before letting the share price go. imo.

If the A5 Deep Well hasn't spud after 3 months of the rig being onsite can only mean one thing.

A skint member.......which will also mean the A7 Deep Well won't hit TD until next year.

Two B8 deep wells waiting on license renewal to flow test - late Q3 before flow testing begins.

803 Deep Well August flow test if no problems.

I expected separate RNS's re Specialist onboard or B8 license renewal, before now, I guess they're still in the wings and just an update in the next Op's Update is what we'll get.

We're getting there and may be Q3 will surprise with multiple happenings?

Yeah, but a Reform £2 million IHT cap will help when CASP get sold ;- )

The 16 Feb RNS stated they were mobilizing the G40 rig to A5 Deep Well site, on the 25 March the rig was onsite, next week will be 3 months since the rig was onsite - surely the A5 Deep Well sidetrack has commenced by now, nearing a flow test? It shouldn't take more than a month or so to complete a 400m sidetrack - drill problems?

The Block 8 license is 2 months on since CC said it should be signed off in 'weeks' by the Energy Ministry, but we're still waiting on the completion of the acquisition of Procyon Investments FZE, the UAE registered owner of EPC Munai LLP, which is the Kazakh registered owner of the Block 8 Contract Area - pretty much like his unrealistic TD timeframes (4 months for the 803 Deep Well to TD lol). The two wells that have been drilled on Block 8 are ready to test, have the perforating pipes been put in place ready for the frack charges to be fired, probably not, let's hope the drilling fluid is the right balance - we don't have to worry about having a stuck pipe on these two wells ;- )

I don't think it will be the next RNS that lights the share price, but the one after July-August when these wells, 803 Deep Well (and possibly 802), B8 license/ other and CE to boot have come to fruition along with the 8 August shallows due diligence deadline being met with a nod to buy the shallows. It looks like CASP are cracking on with the shallows with 815 Shallow Well tender - no doubt incase the shallows sale doesn't go though, 155/ 806 Shallow Wells should have hit TD by now so I'm expecting confirmation in the next RNS - this-next week?

A5 drilling/ 802 Specialist onboard or Block 8 license could surprise, though not holding my breath here.

With the A8 Deep Well drilling to 5,500m and fracking/ flowing with no problems it would seem they've cracked the right drilling fluid balance so perhaps we've only got to worry about stuck pipes and blocked frack holes from now on? we'll soon know for sure when they frack the two B8 deep wells, 802, 803 and the A5 deep well in the coming quarter, which are all being drilled to around 3,500m-4,200m a lot less shallower than the A8 Deep Well was drilled to so hopefully a bit less pressure/ heat to deal with re drilling fluid balance etc..

Will it be a hot July or sizzling August..........

To add....

Delusional

Obsessed

Stalker

Clueless

Low IQ......

.

Yep, though I doubt BNG will be sold anytime soon - possibly towards the end of next year? in the meantime we need WS/ B8 to be flowing to be in a strong negotiating position re BNG sale along with lots of dosh in the bank from shallows sale. ATM CASP have little money to hand and are on the back foot re shallow sale negotiates and that's the reason for the fire sale of the shallows.

The WH Ireland note is the same old same old 305m barrels from years ago and to add they don't know of any other wells in the last 10 years that can flow like the BNG wells - geez are they having a laugh!

They said the shallows were worth 7.8p and $8+ per barrel in their last broker note - we now know how those estimates have turned out, did CASP give 40m 1P/ P2 barrels away at circ. $1.60 per barrel?

If 40m 1P/2P barrels have been sold for circ. $66m how much will 80m 1C/ 2C barrels be worth? and CASP are a very long way from proving up 305m barrels of oil.

BTW CASP are saying the $17m owed for the BNG license fee could be nearer $15m by the time a deal is signed - that's over 2 months away, then it has to go through the Energy Ministry ZzZzZz then a payment made so YE/ Q1? the good news about that is the additional $15m-$17m covers the license fee for the whole of BNG i.e. the deeps.

CASP are going to have to widen the drainage vicinity by a very wide margin to prove up the big numbers re 305m+ barrels in the 'years' to come - how far is the immediate drainage vicinity covering of the 58 km2 A structure from wells A6-7-8? and the 36 km2 Yelemes deep wells 801-2-3?

A FDP with many appraisal wells is going to have to be planned soon after these 6 BNG wells have all been drilled/ flow tested - and many many thousands of barrels of oil being pumped to help prove up the Reserve numbers from these wells - if an early take over/ merger offer was to come in for the BNG deeps in the next 12 months then a mighty premium would surely have to be attached, hopefully one much much better than the $1.60 per barrel for the shallow oil.

Once these 6 BNG wells are flowing and GC have done a proper CPR then we'll see what the numbers are, hopefully they'll be somewhat better than these especially if the A7 Deep Well flows and the 4 massive 801 Deep Wells fan intervals all flow.

Another 50m 1C/ 2C barrels to add from Yelemes in Aug/ Sept?

Anyway just doodling...

All hail bottled ;- )

How the heck did we go from oil reserves to hail?

Trust you DM.

Todays Reserves are estimated from the immediate drainage vicinity for wells A5, A6 & A7.

The Airshagyl structure on the BNG Contract Area is a whopping 58 km2 so what was the distance of the immediate drainage vicinity between these three wells? At a guess I'd say the initial drainage area of the C1/ C2 Reserves is around 5 km2 as we know the wells are only a few kilometers apart, FDP appraisal wells will obviously push the boundary out a lot more later (more Reserves).

I noted they didn't include the A8 Deep Well in the drainage vicinity that flowed 120 bopd from one of three intervals, oil was there so why not include it in the drainage vicinity, though it wasn't commercial oil that flowed oil is there - why they're including the A7 Deep Well that hasn't been drilled yet in the drainage vicinity area?

There's no oil 'yet' from any deep interval(s) at the A7 Deep Well as the drill bit is currently only at 1,250m (5,200m TD) so where's the drainage vicinity stretching to if there's no oil to prove being there, they must be relying on the seismic data only to include the A7 Deep Wells drainage vicinity, but why not use the A8 Deep Well as a boarder/ drainage vicinity, another well close by might hit a better fractured spot?

A question for the AGM perhaps.

Also if the 801 Deep Well has 4 very thick intervals ranging between 6m and 58m thick, which interval has oil - all of them - how far do these interval stretch? Could the smaller Yelemes Deep structure have more oil in its 36 km structure, Carver refers to it as smaller, but could there be more oil in these multiple thick intervals?

Question for the AGM.

How many intervals did the initial A5 Deep Wells 3,800 bopd flow from that was perforated 63m of the 105m net pay zone, and how far does the seismic indicate these intervals go on for?

Anyway the latest Reserves update should be enough to allow them to satisfy the appraisal license renewal requirements until 2050? I think this has been holding the share price back, hopefully it doesn't take as long as Block 8/ A3 Best with thousands of production barrels waiting in the wings.......

''The reserve estimate has been prepared using the former Soviet classification system operated by the Geological Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as required under the Kazakh reserve reporting rules and has been submitted to the Kazakh authorities in connection with the scheduled licence renewal.''

And there you have it, the reason for the Reserves update is to get the license renewed ASAP as thought.

Airshagyl Appraisal structure license runs out 4 August and probably YS too.

Once the BNG appraisal license has been renewed I'd expect a tick up on the share price as the market will be relieved too.

The Appraisal Yelemes Deep structure (BNG) license runs out 4 August which is another reason to do an initial Reserves updates to help get the license renewed no doubt.

BM,

A polite way of saying crap.

These numbers are just to get a BNG international deep trading license(s).

These numbers have been (rushed imo) put through so they can sell the oil at international oil prices as they no doubt expect the deep oil to flow soon replacing their shallow income stream.

These C1/ C2 Reserve numbers are tiny and will increase with next years CPR to include 1P/ 2P Reserves, just imagine if the Airshagyl structure only had circ, 80m Reserve barrels as just stated, if you went by the shallow P1/P2 40m barrels sales Reserves sale that would put the Airshagyl structures 80m barrels of P1/ P2 barrels value at circ. $130m + the smaller Yelemes Deep structures barrels to boot.

We need all 6 BNG deep wells to flow for a proper Reserves estimate, two on each structure would be good.

For those who do not understand what C1 and C2 Reserves are these are simply Contingent and will eventually be moved over to 1P (PROVEN) and 2P (PROBABLE) Reserves.

This Reserves update is so they can apply for an international sales license for the Airshagyl Deep structure. The Yelemes Deep structures 1C/2C Reserves will be updated soon once the A3 completes so they can again obtain an international oil sales license for the deeps.

The A7 Deep Well is no where near completing as drilling was stopped at 1,250m so not sure how they can assess Reserves with this well?

IMO it's just to get the international trading license through.

Very carp initial C1/ C2 numbers BTW.

CASP have said the bulk of the CE payment will be YE, I doubt that very much. It will take at least 4 months for the first monthly payment to be received (if paid every 30 days, could be 60/90 days?) from spud date, which will probably happen in July/ August as the island should be finished in July along with other works that have been going on for months or September even, leading to the bulk of payments coming in 2025 imo.

The 155 Well should have hit TD by now, 80 days averaging 17.5m per day is a lot slower than the first 1,000m if still drilling, with not much news in the next RNS I'd guess they're waiting for this well to test, not that it matters. Surprise news could be B8 license renewed, 802 Specialist onboard or A5 spud/ testing.

CE spud will have a minimal affect on the share price, until first payment reported on being received.

It's not the timing that's fine it's the price per barrel they've let the shallows go for (works out at approx. 2.3p per share) and what that implies for the deep oil price tag.