Member Info for somm

with casp now producing circ. 2,600 bopd without the 815 shallow well (or any other production) will generate approx. $15m in revenue by year end (they're getting £32 pboo). the sale of the shallows is not expected to complete until ye/ q1 as the sale has to go through the energy ministry etc.. if the sale is not agreed by 8 august we could see another oiler bidding for the shallows especially as the 815 shallow well could add another chunk to prod/ res in september after td (adding another 4 months plus of revenue) which will need further due diligence doing by ar. as i've said before i didn't think the $66m sale for the shallows circ. 40m barrels of 1p/ 2p was a good deal - will this 22m dolomite interval increase the shallows reserves/ longevity? plus it will be interesting to see if they class the 803 deep wells shallower than expected 60m interval (11m interval is currently being tested - whoop whoop) above the salt layer as a deep interval or part of the shallows/ shallow sale - if so the £83 million sale will definitely have to be renegotiated upward if it is, though it's doubtful it will be included as a shallow discovery but who knows....

from shallow production and ce dosh casp should generate $25m plus by year end, if the 803 deep well comes in at at say another 1,000 bopd that's another circ. $6 million at local sales price so $30 million+ however, casp can now sell 70,000 barrels in monthly lifts at international prices so the trading arm of casp could get much more from selling the oil internationally.

the 155 shallows well 900 bopd will partly replace the 142/ 141 shallow well oil to help the shallow oil sale go through as i've said before, but once past 8 august anything could happen i.e. a renegotiated sale/ new bidder. pity the 1,400 bopd from the 142 shallow well got ****ed-up with no doubt opening the choke too much to generate desperately needed dosh as we'd be producing 4k bopd now with the 141 shallow well to boot - i see they still haven't managed to pull the 27m stuck pipe from the 141 shallow well and still looking for / negotiating with a specialist.

anyway the coffers should be in a very decent state ye and especially when the $83 million is paid out, and there will definitely be a one-off special dividend - i very much doubt there will be a share buy back, especially next year when the share price in in the double digits - what's a 100m share buy back going to do to the mc/ share price, nadda.

once the shallow sale has gone through casp will hopefully be producing from the 803 deep well (2-3 intervals) - we should get to know if this 11m flow test is successful after a few days of flowing - rns next monday i'd guess, plus potential oil production if the a5/ a6 deep wells and the 802 deep well come in by ye who knows 8-10k bopd with the a7 deep well in the wings q1, block 8 (4) deep wells to test and west shalva shallow oil to boot.

looking forward to a nice one-off dividend, now where's that yaz

"Well 155 on the shallow MJF structure at the BNG Contract Area was spudded in Q1 2024 with a planned total depth of 2,400 meters. Drilling has been completed and oil detected over a 22 meter interval, and testing over a 16 meter horizontal has commenced."

Try reading the RNS you Cluesless numbskull.

The 151 Shallow Well has a 22m thick oil column which is being drilled into it horizontally for 16m.

Try keeping up Clueless.

Leveller,

Think of a baking bowl turned over, the bottom of the baking bowl is wider and therefore contains a larger volume of oil, which is reported to be around 39-42 API at deeper depths.

We now have two confirmed oil intervals on the Yelemes Deep structure one (803 Deep Well) with a 60 meter Gross interval between 3,360 meters and 3,420 with 15m currently being tested (news next week on flow rate?), with two further targets at 3,950m and 4,200m - they will drill down to 4,200m if the primary interval is not commercial - so there could be at least two intervals in the Triassic on the 803 Deep Well that are commercial.

On the nearby 802 Deep Well there's no mention of a 60m oil column at the shallower depths of 3,360m - 3,420m which could mean this zone is only a small reservoir unless they missed it :-(? however the 802 Deep Well has drilled into an unexpected oil column which flowed around 700/900 bopd between 3,900m - 4,000m with a primary interval target at 4,200m, so we're looking at possibly 3 different deep intervals on the Yelemes Deep structure thus far.

No doubt they will be using at least two of these intervals to determine the immediate drainage vicinity's 1C/ 2C Reserves in September - did the 802 Deep Well have any oil shows at 4,200m? i.e. potentially increasing their Yelemes Reserve numbers substantially with it being deeper down - bigger baking bowl volume?

Sponge cake anyone.

Blue,

.007 is £00.007 per share, how's that ;-)

You guys make me laugh, no interest whatsoever in discussing the assets etc., but when it comes to dividends you're all like flies around shi te. LOL!!!

I'll guess $15m-$20m goes into the dividend kitty.

Leveller45,

From the $83 million they will probably pay off the the outstanding $15-$17 million BNG license fee, and payback the BoD's 75% pay cut from the past few years to boot (or they could pay back the license fee each quarter for the next 5 years and keep the dosh to hand.

So knock off say $20m for the above outstanding dosh leaves them debt free with $63 million in the bank to keep the lights on, drill B8/ WS/ buy new rig/ mining company and finish off the BNG deeps - knock off another $40 million-ish?

I really don't think they will buy back any shares - no point as it won't effect the MC buying back a couple of hundred million shares say.

So they could be left with around $20m or $40m if they don't pay off the BNG license fee to pay out a dividend from.

CASP were paying a £1 million dividend to shareholders/ WCP each month (.000444) with not that much in the bank or revenue coming in.

How much would they pay shareholders/ WCP from the $83 million shallow sale if it went through?

A one-off $20 million payment works out at about 16 times that i.e. .007 of a penny.

I'm not saying they will pay that much, but the WCP might want a fair chunk of that, especially with deep production and CE dosh coming in?

To add:

They are moving the G40 rig from the A5 Deep Well to drill the 815 Shallow Well to 1,900m - why are they continuing to drill the shallows (is this to help replace the 142/141 Shallow Wells production loss so the AR sale goes through) - why not drill the 400m A5 Deep Well sidetrack instead of another shallow well after all the rigs onsite, hmm?

Once the purchase of West Shalva (WS) has gone through the 2 rigs that have been drilling the 155/ 806 wells will become available and imo these two rigs will mobilized to drill 2 wells on WS as soon as. This should give us 3 shallow wells (WS 2 wells with 815) and 4 deep wells completed in the coming months (803, B8 * 2 wells and the A6 Deep Well) with the A5-7 Deep Wells being kicked down the road - the 801 Deep Well being no longer deemed commercial is a massive disappointment having 4 very thick net-pay intervals - I guess as with the A8 Deep Well this well will not be included in the Yelemes deep structures immediate drainage vicinity and only the 802/ 803 Deep Wells will be included in the 1C/ 2C Reserves report. In their RNS notes they say 1 well on Block 8 will be tested (typo?) then they say 2 wells to be tested, so at least 6 wells should complete this 2H.

A busy year ahead for sure.........

SmartyP1,

I don't think the 60m oil column is part of the current shallow structure because they're about 1,000m shallower.

What I would like to know is will it be classed as deep or shallow oil and if it's shallow oil will AR have to include it in their due diligence and revise their offer.

Perhaps you could relay that question(s) to CC in your next correspondence and let us know what his feedback was?

Especially what the the drainage area is in km2 of the A5-6-7- wells.

They've used the G70 rig already on the A8 Deep Well, they previously said they were testing it and now say they're waiting to purchase it eenie, meenie, miney, moe....

Bull,

Did anyone ask what the immediate vicinity of the drainage area (km2) was for the A5-6-7 wells of the 58 km2 Airshagyl structure, or how far the potential drainage area might stretch to?

Or why the G70 rig hasn't been purchased yet?

BM,

Did anyone at the AGM ask the question if the 803 Deep Wells 60m oil column above the salt layer would be classed as a shallow or deep oil find, if shallow oil would the AR offer have to be revised upwards?

Food for thought.

Oil has been detected over a 60 meter interval between 3,360 meters and 3,420 meters at the 803 Deep Well, above expectations and also ''above the main salt layer''.

We have come to understand that deep oil is regarded as oil found below the the salt layer in the more pressurized/ hotter zone and shallow oil is classed as oil found above the salt layer, so the big question is will this unexpected 60m oil interval be classed as part of the shallower MJF shallow structure, which in turn could dramatically increase the size of the shallow oil Reserves - along with the 22m interval the 155 Shallow Well is currently testing.

Therefore does this mean the circ. $66M offer for the shallow oil will have to be increased by Absolute Resources LLP and could this new interval attract new bidders after 8 August due diligence deadline passes for the shallow structures (will AR now want to extend the due diligence deadline?), or will this deeper oil above the salt layer be classed as Deep Oil and not part of the shallows oil sale?

If it is classed as being part of the MJF shallow structure will we see a new offer from AR before the 8 August deadline?

If it is classed as deep oil my 40m-50m barrels of additional 1C/ 2C guestimate from NY to be added could be a bit conservative to boot?

SmartyP1,

Same here bursting at the seems, but coudn't resist topping up again with £8K worth of shares that Coffeedirtbag had kindly sold only for me to pick them up......again.

Will do a proper analysis of today's RNS later as there's a ton of important info not picked up on here that should have been posted about.

You are, and that's where your ex missus has had to go back to and now lives in a tent, poor thing.

Clueless free rent is fine by me as I don't mind helping out the homeless, especially those who've been kicked out by their wives and have no where to live after losing all their money on AIM like you.

DM,

If a potential offer came in with a share price premium of around 30% on 27p for example, would you stay or risk the 1,000% return you'd already made. The question is would the end game offer be worth holding out for?

If KO/CC were to get their $3m bonus the share price would have had to stayed above 27p for at least a month, so plenty of time to decide if it did do - pretty sure they'd be flirting RNS's out like rabbits to keep it above 27p at that point, but would the traders like Coffeemug and SmartyP1 continued selling out holding the share price back, they've been selling in the 3p-4p range so what would happen at 5p/ 10p/ 15p/ 20p....?

BM,

By the time they get to 27p we'll be in T/O territory - do I stay or do I go now.. 🎼 🎼 🎼 💸💸💸💸

22p will take us over the £500,000,000 threshold, question is will B8 and WS push the MC over that?

Nice, what's your exit price?

Jimmyg1,

The window of opportunity to buy at 3p is closing as Q3 approaches with the likelihood of several deep wells being tested in this quarter I.e. A5, 802-3, B8 ×2 wells, CE drilling and two license being renewed etc.

Yep it's boring atm, but I'm pretty sure that will all change shortly with the build up of activity thats been on the cards for a while.