Member Info for somm

Because he's a thi ck baboon with no life and no wife, only this board and 13,000+ fantasy posts about some male Polish pole dancer that dumped him, he's just a washed up lonely sad POS who claim to fame is it spent every day in a backroom office pis sed up and hasn't got a scooby doo on anything about drilling operations, its lights are on but nobody's home.

Don't feed the baboon......oops.

X,

You have no idea of my professional background, what do you mean 'Come off'?

Leaky with 9 small trades and a few yesterday?

MMMWWWWWWHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Expect lots of buying on Friday due to FOMO on Monday's RNS, that info was leaked here first.

🤫🤫🤫

Just to add:

We know the 803 Deep Well was the last deep well to be drilled in their deep well program with a TD of 4,200m.

In the note Long says the well has been 'completed' re the drill commitment - it's been drilled to 3,420m just below the salt layer.

I'm still not 100% sure if the well has completed as there's a few errors in his note and this could be one of them. I thought they would have continued drilling through the salt layer to the 3,950m primary target to marry up the interval between the 802-3 Deep Well to increase the area of the immediate drainage vicinity - Reserves, no doubt the next RNS will confirm this.

If the well has been perforated and 'completed' at this depth means (to me) they have oil in this shallower unexpected Triassic interval and it's currently being flowed, no doubt it will take a few days to clear the large amount of the drilling fluid to get a decent flow rate, who knows the next RNS might say they're doing a sidetrack as the interval was uncommercial and they are going to drill to their primary target, may be they will drill a new well to 3,950m when they get the CE/ Shallows dosh?

The note has added many more ifs and buts....

How up to date is Brandon Long's broker note - when was he informed the 803 Deep Well had been perforated?

Testing the well started 2 July and was continuing to be flow tested 2 weeks ago, so I would think it's likely this has been done.

If the well was perforated it must have been perforated at least a couple of days before his broker note was released.

I'm hoping this is the case and positive news is out this week/ Monday after a week or so of actual oil flow rates.

Consolidation is coming.

200/ 1 I'd guess?

Deep Well 803 penetrated oil pay of 60m (from 3,360m to 3,420m) of which 15 meters HAS BEEN PERFORATED for testing''.

If it's been perforated oil will be flowing to surface if no blockages. If a flaring licence is needed for the 803 Deep Well they will have one as with A5, A6, A7, 801 and 802 Deep Wells, not saying they have a flaring licence for 803 doesn't mean they don't.

Stop feeding the baboon, the only thing he knows about flaring is his 70's bell bottoms.

Yep, that's exactly what I thought.

Smarty,

What's your take on the $5.1m upfront payment paid to CASP in December last year

In the initial CE drilling RNS they said costs/ upgrades would be paid by the hirer, which no doubt will have increased since then.

Did Carver confirm to you CASP would bore the cost to build the island etc.?

If this is the case CASP won't get much change out of the expected gross $10m.

Thoughts?

"In 2022, the company paused drilling operations at the Deep A7 well at a depth of 2,150m with the expectation of resuming drilling operations once the rig being utilised at the Deep A5 well is freed."

They've made a few errors in the note and I'm not sure how far behind they are with where the rigs are at, the G40 rig was mobilised from the A5 Deep Well to drill the 815 Shallow Well after the failed attempt to remove the stuck pipe down the A5 Deep Well, the G40 rig according to the recent 815 Shallow Well RNS will go back to the A5 Deep Well and drill a sidetrack once 815 has completed.

The G70 rig is supposed to be drilling the A7 Deep Well once the purchase has been completed not the A5.

''Deep Well 803 penetrated oil pay of 60m (from 3,360m to 3,420m) of which

15 meters HAS BEEN PERFORATED for testing''.

If the well has been perforated it will be flow testing/  pumping the drilling fluid out, which may only take a few days - possible announcement of initial flow results by weeks end/ Monday. imo.

Hopefully no blockages this time 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

''We estimate that the best-estimate success-case gross recoverable resources

from the Airshagyl discovery and the Deep Yelemes discovery amount to 305 mmbbls of oil

and 122 mmbbls of oil, respectively. We estimate that the success case valuations of the

Airshagyl and Deep Yelemes discoveries amount to 52p and 17p, respectively, while

recognising establishing commercial flow rates has proven to be a frustration. Success at

either of the company's deep assets would be transformative and the company continues to

invest in strategies to establish commercial production rates from its deep discoveries. For reference, our financial forecasts do not reflect i) the potential sale of the MJF and South

Yelemes structures, which could close in 1H 2025, or ii) production from yet-to-be completed

acquisitions.''

BNG

Airshagyl: $1,183.4 billion value for 302m boo = $3.92 per barrel of oil - (should read 305m barrels) - WH Ireland had $8 pboo for Airshagyl's 40m 1P Reserves. Unrisked value, get the deep oil flowing and 52p is on the cards? WH Ireland had a value of 102p less 8p for shallows.

Deep Yelemes $378.9 million value for 121.3m boo = $3.12 per barrel of oil unrisked.

They reckon there's 305 million barrels of Recoverable oil from Airshagyl and 122 million barrels of Recoverable oil from Yelemes, that's 427 million Recoverable barrels at 30% RF from 1,424,000,000 billion barrels of OIP  :- ).

That's valuing BNG deeps and nothing else at around $1.5 billion.

Block 8 deep structures could be on par with BNG they reckon?

802-3/ A5-6 Deep wells all flowing by year end and Block 8 and WS wells to boot?

Got to be in it to win it.

As we know the $88m for the shallows is the gross sales tag thus, but what will the net payment be?

CASP pay $800k per quarter for the BNG license fee and had an outstanding balance of $16.9m at 31 December 2023, the shallows sale isn't expected to complete until Q1/2 next year.

CASP will likely end up paying off the license fee another $4m or $4.8m by the time the sale goes through next year (let's say $4m).

$16.9 - $4m = $12.9 still owing, which will be paid by AR thereafter.

So $88m - $12.9m = $75.1m

Less $6.7m (borrowed) = $68.4m

CASP say the deal will complete once signed off by KAZ/ UAE/ UK and tax paid on the $88m - how much 20%?

If the above is correct CASP could end up with approx. $51m net from the shallows sale less any other debt or a high tax banding %.

So a special dividend payment may be smaller than the $10m I suggested from the shallows sale, however with the CE sale and B8/ WS production dosh it could still be around that number, imo.

''The fourth rig CASP bought is a G20 workover rig of 80 tonnes, with a

capacity to drill up to 1,500 meters and perform general workover tasks to a depth of 2,500

meters.

Deep Well AKD-4 has reached a depth of 3,922m and preparations are underway to test the well.

Drilling at Deep Well T-2D, which has a planned total depth of 3,922m, has reached 3,408m. It is expected that the well will be tested upon completion (I think they meant to say the T-2D:- Reached 3408m with a target depth of 3500m and is awaiting testing Jul 2024 Toresai structure).

And the two older well depths were:

P-1:- Drilled 2016 Depth 4203m, P1+P2 Combined 110 BOPDs did flow up to 800 BOPDs, Sholkara structure.

P-2:- Drilled 2019 Depth 3449m Sholkara structure:

CASP said they would be using the G20 rig to test the Block 8 wells.

The G20 rig can reach a depth of 2,500m, does this mean the deep intervals to be tested are around 2,500m mark and not deeper down nearer the 3,500 TD/ 3,922m TD?  No doubt the heat, pressure should on par with the shallows at around 2,500m so I'd guess testing these two deep wells (working over the 2 older well too) could be the equivalent to flowing a shallow well i.e. easier to flow if that's the case re depth?

Another couple of wells with flow rates like the 142 Shallow Well would be nice ;- )

''The overlying Kungurian salt lies at depths of between 3,000m and 3,500m at the location of the Deep Yelemes field.

With the completion of the company’s most recent wells, Caspian Sunrise has satisfied its work commitments and is intending to seek a 25 year licence renewal in respect of the Deep Yelemes, with the application expected to be submitted following the completion work at the Deep Well 803.

A third-party reserve estimate is expected to be established once the completion work at Deep

Well 803 is complete''.

Forget what I said about the A7 Deep Well being the final BNG deep commitment well - they're classing the 803 Deep Well as the sixth deep well, which has been completed at 3,420m not 4,200m. No rush to complete the A7 Deep Well then.

Roll on the test result.

A7 Deep Well 5,300m TD (3,950m-4,200m typo).

''In Q4 2023, the company commenced drilling Deep Well 803, which has reached a depth of

3,420m, with a targeted depth of 3,950m (with a secondary target depth of 4,200m, subject to the success of the primary target). The well encountered oil over a 60m interval between 3,360m and 3,420m, above the primary target (above the Kungurian salt layer). A 15m interval within the oil bearing reservoir is expected to be tested imminently. Deep Well 803 was expected to be the final deep well required under the BNG deep work programme commitment; however, the well made a serendipitous shallow oil discovery above the

Kungurian salt and the company chose to complete the well higher than originally planned to test that zone.

Specifically Deep Well 802 penetrated oil pay of 60m (from 3,360m to 3,420m) of which

15m has been perforated for testing.''

They mean the 803 Deep Well not the 802 Deep Well.

It would seem CASP have decided to complete the 803 Deep Well at around 3,420m so they can test the 15m interval, this is looking very good as it implies the well is flowing after being perforated - the test result should be known imminently, it's probably taken two weeks since the last update due to getting the well under control - they won't want to c ock this interval/ reservoir up if the well is to be completed at this depth to boot. This (to me) is why they have extended the BNG license for 2 years i.e. to complete the A7 Deep Well now as the final deep well drilled i.e. below the salt layer at 3,950m-4,200m, which will run into next year re TD (Two 25 years licenses would take longer to process through the Energy Ministry imo hence the quicker 2 year extension route to carry on drilling before the current deep BNG deep license expires, which I think is next month (24th) anyone?).

There's lots of info in this Zeus note that no one has picked up on, I'll post a few more observation later.

I liked the stated 30% RF they're working Reserves on :- )

SmartyP1,For example: Echo had a 500m oil column of which 120m was net-pay, guess how much oil they found - a jar full, the same applies to some of CASP's intervals that have been abondoned.

You seem to think the 60m interval contains millions of barrels of oil and are shocked at the thought it may contain less than a million commercial barrels? The 3D seismic on 801/ 802/ 803 - logs/ core sample etc. over a number of km between/ around these wells would have shown this particular 60m interval to be a very large interval if it contained millions of barrels of oil - picked up by at least two or three geo's but it wasn't, because it's small in size. To note a 500k/ one million barrel oil reservoir is not a small amount of oil to be sniffed at.

The neighbouring Shalva oil field (next to WS) has a structure containing 5 million barrels of oil - this 60m interval is not even close to being on par with it's size, SW has a 25 km2 structure and 3D seismic shows it's expected to contain a similar amount of oil. This small pocket of oil will not have millions and millions of barrels of oil as you seem to think. imo. 

They're taking their time reporting on the 15m flow test, let's hope it's flowing though I think they've moved on - gusher or blusher........

On one side of the fault we have the A5 Deep Well and A6 Deep Wells close to one another (1,200 meters apart) that have oil shows/ flowed oil around 4,400 meters and on the other side of the fault we have the 801 Deep Well 8km away that was none commercial with the 802 Deep Well and 803 Deep Wells also close to one another with oil bearing intervals between 3,360 meters and 3,420 meters (60m) at the 803 Deep Well and it potentially has oil at 3,950-4,000-4,200 meters - the same as the 802 Deep Well interval that flowed from 3,900-4,000 meters.

Q: how close to the fault wall are the A5/ A6 Deep Wells that separate the two structures and how far are the 802/ 803 Deep Wells from the fault wall and the 801 Deep Well? There's an 8 km gap between the A5/ 801 Deep Wells to work with.

From the below it seems both the A5/ A6 Deep Wells could be connected around 4,400 meters.

''Based on the analysis of mud logs we decided to complete the well at a depth of 4,528 meters. Although mud-logs are only preliminary, they suggest Deep Well A6 has penetrated oil bearing intervals.Work using horizontal drilling which has proved successful at several of the MJF shallow wells is planned for the New Year at existing Deep Wells A6 and 801 at a depth of approximately 4,400 meters.''

On one side of the fault we have the Airshagyl reservoir stretching 58 km2 and in that we have a 1.2 km2 reservoir between the A5/ A6 Deep Wells  - but how long does the reservoir stretch?

On the Yelemes 36 km2 structure I'd guess we're looking at something similar re 802/ 803 Deep Wells being close to one another and connected around the 3,950 meters mark - but how long from say left to right - I'd guess the fault wall distance to the 801 Deep Well is around 4 km away (the boundary wall where none commercial oil flowed) so we could be looking at the 3,950 meter oil interval being around 4 km2 * ?km long due to the distance between the wells. CASP have booked 80 million barrels on the Airshagyl structure and wouldn't be surprised to see another 50 million barrels booked from the Yelemes Deep structure too booked in September.

Like I said I think the 803 Deep Wells unexpected 60m interval is a small independent pocket of oil possibly in the hundreds of thousands/ may be knocking on the 1 million barrels range due to it not being picked up on their seismic data/ logs, hopefully this interval flows.

Anyway just doodling.

Testing was underway on an 11m interval on 2 July, of which testing was continuing on 8 July and the 11 meter interval had been extended to 15 meters.

CASP started testing the 803 Deep Well 21 days ago and 15 days ago were testing another 4m, I presume this is a 15 meter net-pay interval as they infer 'an interval' and not two intervals over the 60m gross interval.

They have approx. 530 meters still to drill to their primary 3,950 meter target below the salt layer. After two weeks since the last update I'll take a guess and say that they are now drilling/ drilled through the salt layer and are on their way to the 3,950m primary target as it's never taken CASP two weeks plus to confirm if an initial flow test has been successful or not, news is generally out within a few day or so (the A5 Deep Well flowed 3,800 bopd and was reported on 3 days after the initial flow test started), so either it's a gusher and they're having problems getting it under control, the perf holes are blocked again and they're having to re-pressurize/ use acid to get it flowing properly or this interval is none commercial like the A8/ 801 Deep Well intervals that had multiple sizeable intervals (the 801 Deep Well had a few intervals one being 58 meters of net-pay and another 36 meters) with oil shows/ flowed oil, but was abandoned.

If there's no news about the 15 meter interval in the next couple of days I'd say they're definitely drilling ahead. The 530 meters still to drill could be drilled for example in approx. 21 day with cementing and casing done, add on flowing the primary 3,950 meter interval for several days and this could take us to month end for results having already flow tested the 15 meter interval a week or more ago?

CASP will be booking more Reserves in September from the Yelemes Deep structure after the 803 Deep Well has completed, in the meantime no news is good news.