Member Info for somm

Once the 803 Deep Well has completed they will be able to apply for an international license to sell the deep oil having enough data for the license from 6 wells, and by year end BNG, Block 8 and WS will no doubt all have enough drilling data for GC to estimate Reserves on all three blocks, could be very big Reserve numbers in total or is that ENI ;-)

They will not need the light oil to flow (too much) to prove the light oil is there (if blocked etc.) as the seismic data will be the main indicator of the size of the Reserves, initial flows even for a short time will be enough for GC to work with.

The question is will they want to proceed with an appraisal program (FDP) or look to sell up/ partner a Major at that stage?

Once the CPR is out of the way confirming the OIP/ 1P-2P Reserves etc. CASP will be fair game and KO will have a sales strategy for sure, which Major will move first?

Chess anyone?

There are 6 deep wells to finish off drilling/ flow test this year with the 801-806 Deep Wells in the wings year end, and 6 structures to poke holes into with their 5 rigs to boot.

3.5p is someone having a laugh?

They've had almost 2 months to drill/ flow test the A5 Deep Well so news has to be imminent, a cautious 15m per day drilled of the 400m sidetrack would take 26 days to drill, add a week to cement, frack and flow test for a few days.

Tuesday Op's Update?

Speculative buying on Specialist onboard/ A5 flow testing, news around the corner.

If peeps sell 50% of their holdings on A5/ 802-3 good news 150m shares would be sold, will WCP buy them, no new peeps will, so plenty of available shares will hit the market 2H.

The A5 Deep Well flowed for a couple of weeks initially before becoming blocked so the drilling g fluid must have been 'nearly' the right mud balance, so I'm thinking after a few years of lab testing they will now have the right mud weight balance, especially as they've drilled the A8 Deep Well to 5,500m.

Only worry is stuck pipe and rocks blocking perforated pipe holes.

BOP at the ready sir!

WRT a T/O for the deeps how will the T/O bid be negotiated?

Will it be average % of the share price over 3-10 days?

1P/2P Reserves valued at $X per barrel plus a premium?

The shallow oil Reserves for both BNG shallow structures and future potential oil have been valued at around a very disappointing $1.60 per barrel, so what would 305m barrels of 1P/2P lighter oil be valued at (WHI full value for BNG oil is £1.05 for 305m barrels)?

If all three blocks flow (BNG/B8/WS) would the share price get back into the 20p-30p range (I'd say so) and would a T/O bid offer give a 50% premium, maybe-maybe more?

WHI had the shallows (years ago) valued at 7.8p and the full value of BNG at £1.05 - we now know CASP didn't get an offer any where near 7.8p for the two shallows structure, I am now very much doubting WHI's £1.05 per share valuation for BNG even with the other blocks included, as their valuation imo is just a paper exercise.

I'm ignoring WHI's finger in the air valuations and from now, my own value for CASP this year if all goes well is around 25p-30p range for the lot, with a 'potential' premium to boot, 30-50% if only one bidder.

CASP may not now be in any hurry to report if/when the 806/155 wells are flowing and will probably wait to report on them when the A5 Deep Well is flow testing too.

If the A5 Deep Well is blocked a gain we'll have to wait months before another deep well is flow tested and will have to rely on B8 license /WS-B8 spuds or Specialist onboard etc. for the share price to rise, imo.

The market has had many disappointments re the A5 Deep Well and imo that's why the share price remains down here until it's confirmed flowing again regardless of the other pending stuff, the next RNS needs to have some major positive Op's news in it to shift the sp.

SmartyP1,

The 803 Deep Well must be at 3,000m? Not a chance! more like between 2km-2,500m by month end by my cals. TD to 3,950m (first interval of interest) or 4,200m (second zone of interest will be drilled to if the first zone is none commercial) will be nearer to August being kind, so I wouldn't expect TD any time soon.

They said they would be milling down the A5 stuck pipe yonks ago, obviously to no avail, and will now drill a 400m sidetrack spurring off the main drill hole (they initially perforated 63m of the 105m net pay intervals) and the last RNS 25 March said the rig was now in place - after 7 weeks since I would have expected the well to have spud by now with news anytime.

Firm discussions had officially started with a potential partner to bring Deep Well 802 into production 25 March (probably a lot earlier) so after over 2 more months (by this month end) surely an agreement with 'the' Specialist will have been signed. What will the deal be? $1-$2 per barrel for the first 1m barrels? If the MJF deal goes through sooner than the 8 August deadline they could just pay the Specialist instead of giving away a %/$ per barrel?

I think they've cracked flowing the deeps now with a new acid formula etc. the last deep well to be drilled was the A8 which was successfully drilled and perforated, will it be the same drill team working on the A5 Deep Well? I hope so as the A8 deep Well was drilled to around 5,500m!

Then onto the A7 Deep Well and Reserves booked thereafter.

There's nearly three months to go before the exclusivity 8 August due diligence deadline, the sale will most likely go through, but if it doesn't CASP get to keep the $1 million and who knows perhaps another bidder enters the fray.

In the meantime CASP will continue reporting on the shallows, not that we're bothered now, with all eyes on the next RNS re the A5 Deep Well spud-flowing/ Specialist sorted - news month end?

If the A5 Deep Well can flow for a month we could be on a winner with the 802 to boot, leading to Reserves being booked on the two BNG deep structures.

I hope the Fat Lady makes an appearance soon after her booking agent GC have slapped the lipstick on?

The 806 and 155 Shallow Well rigs will both be freed up next month to drill West Shalva (WS) soon after they've flow tested the wells so I'd expect an Op's Update in July? stating a WS well(s) has spud. If the Block 8 license has been renewed by then we could see a coupe of more wells spud on Block 8 in Q3 too.

The A5 Deep Wells G40 rig will also soon be available to drill either the A6/ 801 Deep Well in Q3? with the G70 rig is currently idling ready to resume drilling on the A7 Deep Well, a FDP will kick off next year to boot.

The 803 Deep Well rig will also be freed up in Q4 for more drilling year end.

That reminds me I need to call my dentist.

BM,

FYI.

''Our office at O&G Resources LLP is located in South Almaty. O&G Resources LLP is wholly owned by a private business.''  Maybe 'private' is why you're having trouble finding information on Absolute Resources?

Anyway don't take my word for it email/ call O&G LLP and let me know what they say.

+7(778)-609-6012

info@oandgresources.kz || export@oandgresources.kz

BM,

FYI.

''Exploration & Production

Increasing and fortifying the Company’s resource base is one of its strategic objectives. The achievement of hydrocarbon production targets and the continuation of production activities are guaranteed by the strong resource base. The Company consistently replenishes its reserves of gas and oil through a significant amount of exploration activity and license portfolio expansion. The Company’s fields and licensing blocks are located in Kazakhstan. In order to increase its efficiency, the Company prioritizes using new technologies and equipment for exploration. It also values the support of design and research and development institutes for its operations.

An organization that oversees Almaty’s oil fields is called O&G Resources LLP. The Company is dedicated to securing production levels in the upstream sector that enable it to reconcile rationalization of mineral resources with economic efficiency. O&G Resources LLP actively develops reserves that are difficult to recover while maintaining mature field production levels. The Company is actively creating new oil production hubs and developing appealing areas at the same time. By concentrating on enhancing its oil recovery factor—which is among the highest in the nation—the Company has been able to sustain a steady level of oil output in recent years. Exploration & Production – O&G RESOURCES TOO (oandgresources.kz) ''.

https://oandgresources.kz/our-business/exploration-production/

Absolute Resources own O&G Resources LLP.

''Specifically, O&G Resources LLP, a subsidiary of Absolute Resources, plays a role in oil and gas extraction, producing 25% of Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate.''

So yep they will surely have their own oil trading company considering the amount of oil and gas they produce.

''Absolute Resources LLP is a company involved in the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan. They contribute to the country’s oil production, which is one of the largest in the Caspian Sea region.''

So they will no doubt already have a trading license to sell their own oil.

Once you knock off $17m from the $83m shallows sales price CASP get around $66m net, the $17m is the balance due on the $32m BNG license fee still to pay.

I guesstimated CASP had spent around $70m on developing the shallows from the $130m they said they'd spent on the BNG contract area (stated 6 years ago - more will have been spent on the shallows since).

In other words they've only got back what they've spent on developing the shallows, $66m is very disappointing.

$66m works out at approx. $1.60 per barrel for their 40m barrels of 1P/2P Reserves, which to me is a very low offer for 40m barrels of Proven/ Probable oil, they're currently getting $33 pboo net for local sales.

Absolute Resources have made an absolute killing.

With $83m and $10m CE dosh coming in this year and with production expected from the deeps you can bet a dividend payment is back on the table Q4-Q1, and double what it was....

Great to have sold the Shallows to fund the deeps etc. but for a very disappointing amount, which works out at $2 per barrel of 1P/2P Reserves apposed WH Irelands $8 per barrel estimate, this now gives us an indication of what the deeps might go for per barrel when we get a deep Reserves CPR.

Am I right in thinking they've only spent $15m/$17m on the Shallowsre Historic Costs?

Anyway, we're now fully funded and by the sound of it it looks like they know Block 8 flows.....Reserves should easily replace the shallow oil along with WS to boot.

SmartyP1,

I was going to add the two Block 8 structures being flow tested to add, but didn't want to over egg the potential Reserves number and scare peeps ;-) though if these two deep structures flow along with the two BNG deep structures then I think you'll need a bigger boat that comes with a captain ;-)

You should note that the 155 Shallow Well was at 1,000m six weeks ago and averaging around 30m per day with 1,500m to go, which is very fast for CASP. I've had the wells TD near month end and the 806 Shallow Well should be drilled pretty quickly as has happened with the other 2 of 4 Dolomite wells, so month end Op's Update RNS is very likely in my book with the A5 Deep Well spudded to boot.

Getting a Specialist onboard will be the icing on the cake.

DM,

Yep, a lot of arms in the pie atm with CASP hold on to your octopus..... ;-)

Just to add the shallows had initially 48 million barrels of 1P/2P Reserves booked.

IF either of the 802/803 Deep Wells flow for 90 days on the smaller deep NY structure what could the booked Reserves be 100m 1P/2P - double+ the shallow structures?

IF the A5 Deep Well flows for 90 days on the larger Airshagyl deep structure what could the booked Reserves be 200m 1P/2P?

Remember WH Ireland have 305 million barrels of Reserves priced at £1.05 per share.

I'll have a bit of that.