Member Info for somm

Speaking of stuck pipes.

Now they have the AR dosh they could buy the specialist equipment themselves (they have a drilling company) to pull out the stuck 400m 802 drill pipe and the A5 Deep Wells stuck pipe instead of paying a Specialist $$/ % per barrel of oil, it's going to cost circ. $3m to sidetrack the A5 Deep Well (same as specialist equipment costs?), they would then have the equipment to hand try and pull out future stuck pipes (they could also be a Specialist too for hire).

Next oil flows from P1/ A6 with 803 waiting in the wings.

RNS 3 March 2025:

''Potential oilfield acquisition

The Group has signed an exclusivity agreement with the vendors of an established oilfield believed to have significant proven reserves and extensive seismic data coverage.

The oilfield was first identified in the Soviet era and is located near to and is believed to be similar to the Group's former asset at Galaz, on which the Group discovered oil in 2010 and which was successfully sold in 2015 for approximately $100 million.''

It's been four and a half months since the exclusivity agreement was signed so an update can't be far off, it will be interesting see to how they are going to fund the acquisition, no doubt it won't be approved until Christmas 2026 knowing how how fast the historical glacial movements have been - by then production from the deeps/ shallows should help towards the acquisition and 2027 drilling costs. CASP could end up with some serious accumulative reserves across the blocks.

Speaking of reserves the 26m booked boo within a 100m of the A5, A6 and A7 Deep Wells I would have thought are based on the crest of the A5 wells dome as this is the only well to have flowed commercial quantities of oil and the C1 49m boo and 29m boo of 2C reserves are based heavily on seismic data given the fact A7 hasn't been drilled yet and the A6 well hasn't had a confirmed flow rate.

If the two Block 8 wells that flowed 110 bopd then why didn't they include the A8 Deep Well that flowed 120 bopd in their Airshagyl reserve estimates, because they knew the two wells could produce initial flow rates of 800 bops (P2 well alone is now flowing 876 bopd with restored pressure since being shut in) and the A8 Deep Well couldn't, still strange they didn't include in their reserves count but they included the A7 Deep Well?

Now where's our Airshagyl/ P1 Well Op's Updates?

The New Norm, on the other board says.

''They are talking about well A8

I found this RNS which confirms oil flowed from this well at a rate of 1500 bopd albeit only for a short period of time because it got clogged up with drilling fluid.''

The A8 Deep Well did NOT flow 1500 bopd, it had initial flow rates from 2/ 3 intervals of 120 bopd - no doubt the pressure thereafter reduced the flow rate further, and the A8 Deep Well was never included in the Airshagyl Reserves.

More research needed.

Joe,

The A8 Deep Well was plugged and abandoned because it was none commercial i.e. a duster. The best thing that came out of that well was the G70 rig drilled to 5,200m with no problems and tested 2/3 intervals, which bodes well for the A7 Deep Well. Ask yourself why wasn't the A8 Deep Well not included in the Airshagyl Reserves estimate? the A7 Deep Well was included in the Airshagyl Reserves estimate and it's only half way down. At least they'll have a good idea now of where the Airshagyl structures boundary lies. The initial 300m barrel RF is now a lot less imo and they better hope the A7 Deep Well flows commercially or the recent Reserves count will be out of the window.

We should get news on the P1 well test results very soon, both interval depths are on par, hopefully the P1 oil flow is also on par too.

SmartyP1,

I was pretty pi//ssed off as many will know when they are/ were entertaining the ME FI 50% stake in the Yelemes Deep and Airshagyl structures for around £55m (2p-ish) or circ. 5p-ish for the BNG deeps, hopefully this offer has been kicked into touch now they have the AR dosh even if they up their offer later to $100m etc. CC/ KO need a MC of £500m+ to get their 3 million bonuses, ZEUS had the BNG deeps at circ. 10p now-49p full value.

I no longer think the deeps Reserves are as big as once thought with the 801/ A8 wells being dusters - what if the A7 Deep Well is a duster too that's been included in the Airshagyl reserves - before hitting TD/ testing!

If there's a T/O I hope it's for the lot as BNG deeps atm won't go for much as we've witnessed with CASP entertaining the $72.5M offer - CASP need to focus now on getting the A5/ A6/ A7 Deep Wells into production and firm up the Airshagyl Reserves/ value and Yelemes Deep wells 802/ 803 when they get the license there, with the AR dosh this should be they main priority followed by B8/ WS. It's been 6 weeks and no news of the Airshagyl A5/ A7 rigs on the move or A6 acid wash being onsite (I would be very disappointed if they didn't already have the acid wash onsite after all this time worse still if they had to order it from China with a 6 month delivery lead time) .

I think the B8 wells/ structures are looking good and will replace the 801/ A8 dusters re Reserves uplift to boot.

I wonder if in their next note ZEUS will reduced the BNG deeps estimated reserves down from 300m barrels?

Have they got an 802 Deep Well Specialist onboard yet, how long have they been searching for one 2 years?

They've got the dosh now let's see them go all guns.

''RNS: 22 September 2024

Licence upgrades at the BNG Contract Area's deep structures & Deep Well 803 testing.

The Board confirms that as part of the process to achieve separate 25 year production licences at the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures it has agreed with the Kazakh authorities to extend the previous appraisal licence for up to a further 12 months.

This will allow time for the completion and review of the supporting licence upgrade applications, including the independent reserves assessment already completed for the Airshagyl structure and the equivalent assessment at the Yelemes Deep structure, which is awaiting the outcome of testing at Deep Well 803.

Deep Well 803, which was drilled on the Yelemes Deep structure and where oil was detected over a 60 meter interval between depths of 3,360 and 3,420 meters, has initially tested at around the 500 bopd level. Further testing will be conducted once the licence extensions referred to above are in place.''

RNS: 23 May 2025.

''Licence - The board of Caspian Sunrise PLC is pleased to announce the award of a production licence for the Airshagyl structure on the BNG Contract Area.

In Q3 2024, shortly before the expiration of the previous appraisal licence, an application for a 25 year production licence was submitted to the Kazakh authorities. The approval of the full production licence is on the basis of an initial period of three years and that during that period no historical costs will be assessed.

Yelemes Deep structure.

A similar application has been made for a 25 year full production licence at the Yelemes Deep structure, which extends over an area of 36 km2 and on which three deep wells have to date been drilled.''

Over 10 months ago CASP applied for the two BNG deep production licenses and it's been 6 weeks since the Airshagyl license was approved. The Yelemes Deep structures license was applied for at the same time so why the time lag between approvals?

The Yelemes Deep license can't be far off now and could be the next meaningful piece of news while we're suspended along with Block 8 Akkaduk license and West Shalva sale completion, get all three announced while we're suspended together with the P2 well producing 876 bopd coming CASP's way, AR $88m signed off and YE results posted/ suspension lifted and my 4p-6p on open/close could be conservative especially with Airshagyl A5/ A6/ A7 wells being worked on to boot.

If these events are not announced while we're suspended each one of the above being announced after the suspension has been lifted will continue to drive the share price thereafter.

Now where's our Airshagyl update 6 weeks is enough time to at least mobilize the G40/ G70 rigs.

I think Clive was guesstimating 6 weeks for the dosh to be released after the shallows transfer was approved, so the YE accounts should be out next week or so?

I think that boat is going to capsize, we're going to need a bigger boat :- 😉

DM,

I've been investigating in oil companies for 25 years and now and again a company like CASP come around with so many material irons in the fire that collectively are able to make those who have loaded up during the tough times well off or millionaires.

The next 18 months will see a few rich old fogeys upgrading to gold plated zimmer frames 😀 ✨️ 😄

Can you BBQ pork pies?

Another high end estimated of 400m barrels of OIP for the Akkaduk structure would put Block 8 on par with the BNG deeps.

CASP could book Reserves for Shalkana and Akkuduk this year as they've done with Airshagyl/ North Yelemes deep structures? Another slice of the pie to look forward to.

''Following the completion of the acquisition of the Block 8 Contract Area any proceeds from the sale of oil produced there, less a $5 per barrel royalty capped in aggregate at $60 million, will be for the Group. In the meantime the income from the production at the Block 8 Contract Area will be used to start to pay down the loan advanced as part of the Block 8 acquisition arrangements.''

CASP will be being paid the income gained from the 876 bopd from the P2 oil until the loan has been paid off so CASP will have an income stream now and when the ownership transfer completes.

So CASP should get around $650k per month from the P2 well production ($25 bpoo net?). The P1 well should be flowing any day now after perforating a 3m interval section over a few weeks ago, both intervals are on par re depth so we could get another initial 250 bopd increasing to 900? bopd, doubling the income to over $1m over the next month or so reducing the $3.2m? loan by a million - enough to pay down the BNG quarterly $800k license fee and some change.

When the ownership transfer is complete CASP will pay the ex-owner $5 pboo from production capped at $60m, a very good deal for 100m-400m barrels of OIP and that's OIP figure (I assume) doesn't include the new Akkaduk structure.

It's been a month since CASP said the court said the license renewals/ transfer were in the hands of the two KAZ EM administrations - surely the first administration (the slow one) already has all the info and has now passed it on to administration No2 for them to pass them off? ..................either way CASP are getting paid from production.

The Akkaduk structures license and testing together with the P1 well testing can't be far off, and the final ownership hurdle done and dusted to boot?

Airshagyl Op's Update is due.............next week?

Yeah let's hope so.

Now CASP have the dosh we should see and RNS Op's Update on the A6 Deep Well's acid wash commencing and the A5 Deep Well G40 rig being mobilized to site along with the G70 rig to the A7 Deep Well site.

Looking forward to seeing SW/ B8/ NY wells spud/ tested this quarter.

It will be interesting to see how they're going to fund the Galaz sized Prospect - same as B8 would be good though I think we'll see something more along the lines of a WS-cash/ shares deal with it being a sizable Prospect, so perhaps some dilution? the due diligence period should be up by now.

S76

Yeah I think you're right as that's the missing $5.5m, my bad.

So $61.7 + $7m + $5.2m - + $13.8 = $87.7m

So that's the full $88m spread over 12 months ($61,7m already received.

Cheers.

....further.

IF production is as high as I'm hoping it will be we could see a dividend kick in too from the $5.2m per monthly installment if combined from production at 5k? bopd @ say $20 net pboo would be another $3m in the bank so CASP could easily have circ. $8m per month to play with.

Just doodling..........

DM,

Try 100m OIP barrels with an initial 15% RF = 15m recoverable barrels with 2 wells each pumping 1k bopd = about 20 years, less time with more well - 20 years per 15m barrels with say a 5-10 year plateau to boot. What if they opened the choke from 4mm to 6mm/ 8mm......hmm.

Anyway like I said with the well pressure likely increasing since its shutdown and 2k+ bopd looking realistic from 3 wells (2 structures) and 801/ 803 initially flowing 1,200 bopd (700/500) and the A5 Deep Well initially flowing 3,800 bopd it's looking good now CASP have the dosh to see production over 5k bopd by YE with A6-A7 and WS to boot.

What I'd like to know is where's all the $88m AR dosh is if they're taking it in 12 * $5.2m installments from next January ($62.4m). The $88m consent has been received and from that CASP say they have already received $61.7m with another $7m on its way = $68.7m leaving $19.3m still to be had.

The current outstanding $13.8m historical BNG license cost is to be paid by CASP (not AR?) over the remaining 4.3 years at $800k per quarter, this will be paid from production and dipping into the monthly $5.2m each quarter. The bonus here is CASP will be able to benefit from interest gained by not paying off the historical cost in one go - and the total $88m interest to boot as it's drawn down (less the $13.8m?). The $13.8m will be paid off as usual each quarter from available funds, which CASP state will be received over the remaining 4.3 years - so is the $13.8m to be sent over to CASP by AR each quarter? knock this $13.8m off the outstanding $19.3m and it leaves $5.5m owing, but is $13.8m included in the $68.7m for future drawdowns? So where's is the $5.5m?

And why/ who has decided to take $5.2m each month in instalments from next January instead of having access to the full $88m now ($61.7m received), especially as CASP say they have already received $61.7m? and what are they using to fund operations with in the meantime with the shallow revenue stopping next month - from the missing $5.5m?

It's been 3 years since CASP started the process of acquiring Block 8 so CASP won't benefit yet from the 876 bopd oil revenue from the P2 well until the license renewal has been signed off, which could be sometime with two KAZ EM departments dealing with the license(s), no doubt the current B8 owners are milking the well before the ownership is handed over, hope they don't ruin the well if they are pushing it.

Originally I assumed IF CASP were to pay a dividend (it's not looking to be the case this year) or buy back shares it would have been done in a sizable one-off lump sum, however any share buy back is now looking to be done on a monthly basis starting from next year sometime imo. the downside there is fewer shares will be bought back as by then the share price should be much higher - shares bought back $1m-2m? worth of shares per month won't have much impact on the shares in issue though sentiment should help the share price fur

Great news!

Both wells were producing 110 bopd and previously peaked at circ. 800 bopd.

For just the P2 well to be pumping 876 bopd bodes well for similar flow rates from the nearby P1, IF the Akkaduk well flows too we could see initial combined flows rates around 2k bopd replacing the shallows.

Roll on the license renewals.

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

''''Disposal proceeds

To date a total of approximately $61.7 million has been received. A further approximately $7.0 million is due to be paid following the transfer of operational control at the MJF and South Yelemes structures, which is expected to take place later this month at which point formal completion of the Disposal is expected.

A further approximately $5.2 million is then due to be received in equal monthly instalments over a 12 month period commencing 6 months after formal completion. Additionally, a further $13.8 million is due to be received over the remaining life of the Historic Costs obligation, which was initially assessed at $32 million in 2019 and has been paid down to the current $13.8 million level.''

Am I reading this right? CASP will receive $62.4m in monthly instalment of $5.2m per month for 12 months starting from January 2026 (6 months after formal completion?

It sounds like the instalments are being drawn down from the $88m (less the $13.8m historical costs still to be paid by CASP) - so not a lump sump?

Or is this 12 month $5.2m per month in addition to the $61.7m received + $7m due?

Anyone care to elaborate?

RNS: dated 15 July 2024

Cash based incentives

In May 2019, we introduced cash based long term incentive arrangements for the senior management team since 2012, Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver.

Under these arrangements, provided the share price growth exceeds pre-set targets starting at 17.23p, then for every $500 million increase in the Group's market capitalisation above $300 million, as adjusted to take account of dividends paid, both Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver, would receive payments of $3 million each.

The principal hurdles under these arrangements are set out in the table below.

Market cap threshold

Share price target

Pay-out rate (each)

Pay-out amount (each)

$' billion

Pence per share

%

$' million

0.8

17.23

0.6

3.0

1.3

20.67

0.6

3.0

1.8

24.81

0.6

3.0

2.3

29.77

0.6

3.0

2.8

35.72

0.6

3.0

Roll on 17.23p - no doubt Clive will be chomping at the bit now.......

.....Edmund Limerick, Chairman of the Caspian sunrise Remuneration Committee said:

'The executive management team of Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver have, since May 2012, rebuilt the value of the Company from less than $25 million with a share price of less than 3p per share, to in excess of $250 million with a share price of 12.5p.

In the event the Company's market capitalisation increases from this point by intervals of $0.5 billion, and that the Company's share price exceeds a scale of pre-set levels, both Mr Oraziman and Mr Carver would each be entitled to receive cash payments of $3 million for each $0.5 billion increase in market capitalisation, representing, in aggregate, 1.2% of the additional market capitalisation created.

That these incentives take the form of cash payments while maintaining the link to share price and market capitalisation common in option schemes reflects the particular share ownership and tax positions of the individuals concerned.

On behalf of Caspian Sunrise shareholder generally, I very much hope the awards are triggered.'

Ends

And so do I!

Their incentives should kick in this years...