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CASP told us nearly 3 months ago a rig (G40?) has been identified to sidetrack the A5 Deep Well (surely this has been mobilized to the site?) and the A6 Deep Well is about to have an acid wash (the acid wash must be on site as this wash was planned before the Airshagyl license expired 9 months ago so testing might start in June), no doubt the G70 rig is going to mobilize soon to the A7 Deep Well site after completing the horizontal shallow well - CASP should have all hands on deck now having got the Airshagyl deep license to operate on, WS will probably spud late July having been given the nod, but the ownership hasn't been signed off yet, confirmation is due any day.

3 March 2025: ''Two of the Group's four principal rigs are now in storage. A third rig has been identified to work on Deep Well A5 upon receipt of the full production licence at the Airshagyl structure on the BNG Contract Area and the forth rig is being prepared to drill the 2,660 meter well planned on the West Shalva contract area referred to above.''

Other than the Galaz size license being looked at CASP can't do much with shallows sale/ other licenses as it's all in the KAZ EM hands, Yelemes Deep license being renewed/ A6 Deep Well acid wash and the A5 deep well spud date is likely the most advanced news we can expect that should push the share price. imo.

Even after Carver's next Op's Update drilling results won't be out on the A6 acid wash for a while as they'll have to remove tons of drilling fluid and test it etc. flow you mother...............

Amended: should say $68m + $1m for 4 months ($14m + $54m are pending). ;- )

Since the BNG license renewal process started circ. 9 months ago CASP will have had a net profit of around $13m+ from the shallow local/ RF oil sales/ trading and a large chunk of this will have been saved due to little work being carried out on the BNG and B8 deeps for some time too, say $4m? Add this to the $3.1m B8 loan being refunded and thr recent $6m-$7m payment from the CE charter and $72m + $1m for 4 months after the initial $72m has been paid and CASP could have circ. $90m in the bank in Q3 - roughly £67m funnily enough that's CASP's market cap.

Now the Airshagyl license has been renewed they can sidetrack the A5 Deep Well and finish drilling the A7 Deep Well (I don't see any oil being produced from either well until October-ish along with WS Sept-Oct) and acid wash the A6 Deep Well. IF the A6 Deep Well flows commercial quantities of oil - on par with the A5 Deep Well with it being close by? (the A6 oil won't be sold on the international market as the current oil price per barrel is too low atm) combined with the 803 Deep Well which was already flowing 500 bopd from an open hole - this well may well produce way over 1k bopd so in the short term (Yelemes Deep licenses renewal is imminent - the 803 can finish testing soon afterward circ. end of July end) perhaps within a couple of months we could have oil flowing from the A6/ 803 Deep Wells in the X,000's of bopd replacing the shallow oil with the 802/ B8 Deep Wells - Specialist/ license needed and WS kicking in further down the line, all adding to the $90m bank balance.

I think by the end of June-July Gritster's ''5p will never happen in 2025'' will be long gone. imo.

Tick tock...............

Well I wasn't as you can clearly read so what's your point?

DM,

What page are you on?

The middle eastern FI have offered $72.5m for a 50% stake in the BNG deeps not the shallows.

🙄

I'm curious to know how the financial institution (FI) came up with $72.5m for a 50% stake in BNG without first knowing what the Yelemes Deep reserves are that will be announced after testing the 803 Deep Well?

Airshagyl initial 1C/ 2C reserves are circ. 79 mmbls from the immediate drainage vicinity, let's say Yelemes Deep reserves are circ. 40 mmbls, how much does that work out per barrel? It works out circ $1.64 per barrel with potentially a 150 mmbls on the cards to the FI for circ. $246m at a rock bottom price per barrel and all for $72.5m, with net profit per barrel currently around $30 pb for local/ refinery sales that's $4.5 billion + a trading profit of $10 pb to boot......not bad for a $72.5m stake.

AR paid two $1m payments for an exclusivity agreement with full access to the data room, has CASP given full access to the FI for free or are the FI just waving a finger in the air?

And the FI has the nerve to insist CASP receive the $88m before the deal can go ahead WTF!

CASP will soon have around $80m net cash in the bank ($72m + CE + revenue dosh), enough to cover drilling WS and finish testing/ drilling the BNG deep wells especially with revenues coming in from WS? two or three B8 wells and the 803 wells 500+ bopd (802's 700+ bopd), A7, A6 and A5 deep well production waiting in the wings so CASP should not be in a weak financial position to be dictated to with this awful deal. KO/ CC need to grow a pair and give the FI the middle eastern finger.

I note one or two think this is a very good deal so CASP have enough funding to progress BNG, but this deal IF IF it were to go ahead wouldn't complete until way past mid-next year if the KAZ EM admin are anything to go by so the $72.5m wouldn't be received until probably nearer the end of 2026 and by then the above wells should be producing thousands of oil per day in turn funding all the blocks . imo.

Just to add in a nutshell:

Yelemes shallows - circ. 35-40 mmbles P1/ P2 reserves and producing cir, 1500 bopd. Sold for $88m

A 50% stake in Yelemes Deep and Airshagyl circ. 40 mmbls 1C/ 2C reserves net to the financial institution and some of the wells already capable of producing over 5,000 bopd collectively thus far (A5-802-803 deep wells) for $72.5m?

I keep wondering if the BNG deep structures have shrunk in size with 801/ A8 deep wells being dusters and not being included in the reserve estimates?

DM,

They're selling a 50% stake of the Airshagyl structures reserves (net circ. 40 mmbles thus far) and 50% of all future reserves and thousands of bopd for circ. sub $2 per barrel, an even worse deal by far than the shallows sale, the excuse there was it was the shallow structures were mature and water breakthrough, the two deeps structures are not mature or flooded with water.

Net profit was $36 pboo at around $75 pb.

So why aren't they getting anywhere near $10 pboo? you tell me.

A 50% stake in the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures (reserves are still to be announced after testing) is an absolute steal for $72.5m and should be kicked into touch. imo.

Great news and about time!

The Airshagyl structure drilling/ acid wash can now start at long last hooray! 2H is going to be busy on many fronts.

''In Q3 2024, shortly before the expiration of the previous appraisal licence, an application for a 25 year production licence was submitted to the Kazakh authorities. The approval of the full production licence is on the basis of an initial period of three years and that during that period no historical costs will be assessed.''

Q: So what will the license fee cost be after the initial three years?

''In awarding the licence the Kazakh authorities have accepted C1 reserves based on the area within 100 meters of the wells drilled on the Airshagyl structure of approximately 26 mmbls. During the initial three year period it will be possible to upgrade the assessed reserves based on future drilling.''

Q: So how far out are the 'other' circ. 20 mmbls C1 reserves and the other circ. 40 mmbls 2C reserves, 1000m-2,000m? what are the 'in house' estimated OIP barrels for the Airshagyl structure and initial RF 20%-30%, thus far 79 mmbls 1C-2C reserves is peanuts considering initial estimates? No doubt bringing the A5-A6-A7 Deep Wells into production (proving commercial oil flows or live moveable oil) will increase the reserve estimates once flowing and enable the full 25 year production license to kick in (with costs?).

We now know about the G70 rig. i.e. drilling a horizontal shallow well, it must have been purchased yonks ago, but why no RNS to confirm the sale was completed? ah well it's proven to be capable of drilling a horizontal well and is also able to drill through the salt layer down to circ.5200m (A8 Deep Well) and test three deep intervals.

Yelemes Deep structure license next oop oop we're off!

Oops!

9 wells!

😂😅🤣😂

With most of the work done on each of them...........

I'm betting CASP's 7 licences will all be producing by the end of the year with a potential Galaz sized license in the wings due to having $72m in cash hitting their bank account shortly, plus existing CE/ shallow production dosh, and possibly all 8 wells in production.

2H is going to be a game changer. Imo.

Like for like that $150m land value would put the share price at circ. 13p and if the well flows at say 3m+ cfpd it could be knocking on 15p-20p again?

Leveller45,

I'm dead against CASP spending $3m-$5m on new equipment for a WI (what %) in a manganese mining operation that has seen the price of manganese drop 50%.

They could spend this money instead on buying specialist equipment of their own to pull the stuck pipes out of the 802/ A5 Deep Wells enabling the production of thousands of barrels of oil (both wells flow commercial quantities of oil), instead of hiring a Specialist to boot for a $/% of the 802 Deep Wells oil revenue, whom they've been in discussions with forever.

This spend would also help in proving up Reserves and benefiting from a substantial increase in monthly oil revenue.

So no I'm dead against them buying into a mining ore company for millions of dollars - get the deeps producing first then consider branching out - CC/ KO need to get their priorities in order.

AR have done their due diligence and AR/ CASP are just waiting now for the EM to sign off on the shallow license transfer, I think when the RNS drops the dosh will be released from ESCOW soon after and away we go.

They've said they'd sidetrack the A5 Deep Well and acid wash the A6 Deep well once the two BNG deep licenses come through, (we know one of the G40 rigs in storage will sidetrack the A5 Deep Well leaving one rig spare for B8?), will we also see the A7 Deep Well continue drilling soon after too - have they completed the G70 rig purchase - with the CE dosh? The two deep 25 year licenses could also drop anytime.

The big question for me is how much is this Galaz size oil field going to cost if they decide to buy it - is the reason why CASP are considering selling a 50% stake in the two proven oil bearing/ producing deep BNG licenses for a poxy $72.5m to buy a 100% stake of this Galaz size field that's yet to be proven commercial - hopefully on the cheap for $20m-$30m with a lot of spare dosh in hand to drill it?

Reading between the lines in the last RNS it's pretty clear AR's due diligence had completed months ago and the long stop dates have been down to the KAZ EM signing off on the transfer of ownership, CASP have grown weary of giving out timelines so have stopped as their hands are tied - confirmation the EM have signed off on the sale can drop anytime. Obviously CASP have run out of patience with the EM hence no more long stop dates, this is also telling with their frustration re the Block 8 court appeals where there's two oil ministry departments involved (more brown envelopes needed?). CASP said the two deep BNG license renewals could take up to 12 months to get signed off and I'd guess this will go to the wire with two more months to possibly go before we hear anything. IF the $72.5m very pathetic price tag for a 50% stake in the BNG deep licenses is to go ahead after the AR deal completes you can bet your bottom dollar it won't conclude until next year if the above is to go by.

We may see WS spud by next months end along with an update on the exclusivity agreement ending/ extended for the potential Galaz sized license acquisition - cost? - another 12 months to sort?, initial due diligence is usually for a three month period though given how long it's taken thus far for the above sales/ license renewals to complete I wouldn't hold my breath on any new acquisition being signed off this year.

Get the licenses renewed and WS dosh in the bank so CASP can get on with drilling/ production then no doubt 2H should see the share price multi-bag from here, June activity should prove pivotal re the long awaited share price rise. imo.

Occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

I've been very very greedy of late and look forward to being very very fearful.

IF the AR deal is signed off tomorrow we will have a bit of a rise and I say a bit, because 100m shares will hit the market soon after, which will dampen the rise plus the fact the dosh won't be released from ESCROW for a while - at least until the EM sign off on the transfer of ownership of the shallows to AR.

There's a couple of months of the 12 month BNG license window to possibly go yet meaning we could see a very big share price rise when the licenses/ dosh are received around about the same time (June?) combined with WS spud and the Block 8 license also signed off around then too, a massive news squeeze is on the way.

A touch of reality is needed chaps. imo.

Yep and manganese is down 50%, I've been dead against this deal, however the JV partner has 2 gold licenses to start work on, hold is at an all time high atm so who know? I'd rather they buy the Galaz size prospect.

mr****ious,

i reckon gritster has more knowledge about casp on his little finger than you will ever have and that knowledge he has is zip. lol!

a very fair point i might add.....

and like i said gritster you are the dimmest of the dim, i'll leave it at that.

Stitster,

Let me ask a gain.

''What clot asks for advise from an unknown entity re when will the share price hit 5p, you couldn't make it up!''.