Member Info for Soder

There is also a route to market question. Who is the buyer of oil from a military junta who just seized an asset from an international oil company in contravention of international law.

Buyers can transfer funds to Savannah to pay for shipments. I’m not sure buyers can easily transfer funds to whatever entity the Chad government chooses to operate from as it would fail every single KYC check that any bank possesses. You would essentially be funding a military junta to buy weapons, line their pockets etc. and you would be doing that in US dollars. That is a huge ****ing no no and any one doing that would feel the full wrath of Uncle Sam. The reality is the tin pot dictator is ****ed. He can’t get physically transact oil cargoes.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2023/03/21/savannah-energy-unaffected-by-row-with-junta-over-exxonmobil-asset-transfer,109925839-art

https://www.africaintelligence.com/southern-africa-and-islands/2023/03/16/eni-queues-up-for-slice-of-namibian-oil-and-gas-bonanza,109924081-eve?utm_source=AIA&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PROS_EDIT_FEU&did=109825527

If they have no debt to service via repayments and interest that cash can be used to susutain dividends

Lol

You can grow the business with m&a. Even with this deal. What you should not do is **** your existing shareholders in the process bu issuing shares at a depressed valuation when you have a **** ton of shareholders cash on balance sheet you could use. It’s not this deal that is the prob. It’s the structure and the price we paying. We are being laughed at by mercuria I’m sure.

Why is our SP depressed? Some of that is epl. But a decent amount is the mkt saying they have no confidence in this dunce management team to grow the biz using the cash they have by making sensible and well structured deals. And the mkt is being proved right.

There no NO excuse for the structure of this deal. Its offensive.

It’s a lazy deal that does nothing more than guarantee Mitch and his lazy management team with a lazy board keep the till open for their inflated salary and benefits packages.

Vote no. Sack the board.

General you cash is king…. Holding cash at likely close to zero percent interest rate in a double digit inflationary environment is negative real returns. Yeh cash is king. Let’s just sit on it and watch it diminish to zero in real terms whilst Mitch pays him self a fortune.

I’m not doubting mercuri want shares and not cash. Of course they do. But why are we allowing that. We could buy them without raising equity. If the tax losses have a valuation. But the whole of tailwind and tell mercuria to **** off. If they don’t want to sell tell them good luck monetising your tax losses on oil production with 75% tax rate with no floor on the epl component and an oil price likely to dive next year.

A simple google search will tell you about other Nigeria producing assets for sale. It will also highlight the almighty **** show that is currently going through which makes our chad debacle look like a teddy bears picnic.

T. I. A.

This. Is. Africa.

Standalone Tailwind have tax losses to offset on oil production. Oil prices are not in windfall territory and will probably get hammered next year on global recession. The windfall tax will remain. Hence tailwind cashflows will be **** all over next few years.

Mercuaria want to stay invested as they want the option to utilise their tax losses against OUR gas production. Gas will remain at elevated price level as Europe fill up storage again over summer. Hence will be much more attractive than oil procdution despite the same windfall tax and fiscal regime on both with no floors.

Without Serica, tailwind are too oily give the oil v gas price and fiscal regime. As such not an attractive investment. Which beggars the question, why are we are giving them a free option on our gas at a stupidly high valuation? Bad incompetent management. If you want their losses buy the whole company. We have the money. We have the balance street strength. Why allow mercuria to dilute us and take our upside???!! Cos Mitch is a moron.

That is a big **** you and bring it on to parenco and it’s directors. You wanna play dirty? Fine. Just know that we will be responding in a clear and transparent way for n the full public domain and you will need to explain and justify your actions. Bring it on mofos.

There is a very simple answer to that. Cos Mitch and his idle sponger management crew would have been out on their ****s day 1 and would not be collecting hundreds of thousands in salary, benefits, share options, pension contributions…..each.

This management team are a total disgrace. And so are the board that allow them fill their pockets at the detriment to shareholders who own the company.

Look at the oil price. Does it look in windfall territory? But cashflows will be taxed as if it is. We should not be buying a North Sea OIL business which has a significantly inferior balance sheet at this moment.

Stupid deal. I’m all for using the cash for growth. But this is a lazy, more of the same deal.

Disagree. There should only be 2 possible uses for the home he cash balance Serica have. 1. Return it to the shareholders to who it belong 2. diversify the business away from the North Sea to avoid a fiscal regime where IRRs mean it is far less reactive than other jurisdictions.

Shareholders funds should not be used for more of the same and to bail out a debt laden OIL (not gas) biz who would be subject to windfall tax even though oil prices nit even remotely in windfall territory . The IRRs on this must look horrific.

Vote no. Vote management out.

How is this **** better for shareholders than the kistos deal??!!! Simply, it’s not!!! But it is better for our useless management as they keep their jobs and ridiculous high salaries in this deal.

**** that. I will be voting no. And willl also be reminding the board they are there to act in the best interest of SHAREHOLDERS and not themselves.

From the horses mouth…..

Following Savannah's completion of the acquisition of ExxonMobil's upstream and midstream asset portfolio in Chad and Cameroon and assumption of the operatorship of the upstream assets on 9 December 2022, production in Chad has continued uninterrupted at an average gross daily rate of approximately 28 Kbopd

I’m quite hopeful this may mean we get plenty discount, no vat, Asda price on the South Sudan assets to compensate us for being an innocent and well being intentioned partner to this petit **** show.

Keep exxons chad share and nail South Sudan and we will all be working seeing why certain posters soiled their nappies so quickly when arguably the share price was already pricing in pretty much zero probability of these transactions closing.

Parenco would be truly insane to step into this situation. They would get their asses sued and find themselves in court very quickly outside of chad which could cost them hundreds of millions if there was underhand and indeed probably illegal goings on.

Our in-country head in Chad was actually at parenco for 19 years before moving to Savannah.

I am comfortable that toys have been thrown out the pram. But ultimately what can the chad government do. Absolutely nothing. As it’s quite clear they are looking for payments which are well beyond the scope of the contract. With regards to the change in terms. That has only come about because of the delay in closing and the acquisition date being effective Jan 2021. If they delayed another 2 years would they then say well we will take it for free now? I am not a lawyer but am familiar with pre emotive rights and 100% of the time I have seen this in contracts you have a short and well defined time limit to take up those rights. It’s certainly not 12 months to give yourself a free option on the price coming down due to an effective date being 2 years previous whilst cashflows build up.

I would be very confident it is ongoing. It’s actually quite difficult to just shut production down form a producing well. And who would do it? Plus, there is absolutely no incentive for Chad to do that as they want the $$$.