Member Info for Soder

Layla back on the move

I will tell you why not.

The gazania-1 parters are eco Atlantic, Africa energy, panoro and crown.

Africa oil are merely a shareholder. Having them announce the result of a transformational well for the partner companies would be like me and your releasing the info as we are just shareholders too. Ain’t. Gonna. Happen.

I will tell you with absolute certainty that Arica oil will not release result or info here. They are NOT the operator.

Thanks!!!

Dicko. What is the Norwegian forum please?

I would think that even if they hit payzones they would HAVE to assess if they are commercial before saying anything. Unlike other drills where you are are targeting one zone we have 2+1 (including the sidetrack). It may be (for example), that they found 2 narrow payzones in Namaqualand and gazania which on their own are not commercial. But if you side track and get a hit in the pelargonium then combined it’s a commercial discovery.

Lots of possibilities. But FWIW I think they have hit at least 1 payzone so far given the length of drill time. Whether that is commercial or not I have no clue. Exciting times.

I missed this on the photo posted by Tomax of their products at the quayside. The boxes on the pallet behind the tomax equipment have Vulcan branded tape around them. Vulcan are a U.K. based company with a very narrow product range used for well drilling.

https://www.vulcan-cp.com/products

Products include centralizers which are used to create the space between the casing and the drilled hole so it can be cemented. Needed to a greater extent and quantity for horizontal/directional (ie sidetrack) drilling as the casing would rest on the bottom of the hole otherwise and you would not be able to cement around it.

https://youtu.be/i2zyi7XGYMo
https://youtu.be/I9CY0t1X21w

Then they also sell reaming shoes. These are utilised in directional drilling as the drill bit faces additional lateral forces when moving horizontally which can make to bore hole hole uneven and difficult to case and cement. The reaming shoe will sit at the end of the casing and clean up the hole whilst casing and then and allow cementing. vid below if anyone interested.

https://youtu.be/fd9kRCcPIOw
https://youtu.be/9ft0VQPDJ9s

Not saying that’s what the Vulcan equipment is but they really dont sell that many products.

She arrived back on site from cape town just before midday. Did a northerly loop around the innovator and has been sat alongside the rig now for nearly an hour. Hence she is def offloading.

You just don’t do that unless you are offloading consumables needed for your operations. You can stay on an OSV for weeks without needing to port. It’s not like being on a rig where you are actually working hard 12 hours shifts so you get off every 2-3 weeks. She has collected some bulky ****….diesel, mud, tooling, pipe whatever and is now unloading it. The ONLY reason you do that is because you are continuing to drill.

As a general rule the rig day rate will be roughly half the overall cost. At the time we secured the rig day rates we’re probably about $350k a day for midwater. Then you have 2 OSVs probably costing $30-50k per day. Maybe a bit less. It’s only 2800m target depth but that’s still a lot of casing and collars and consumables that ain’t cheap.

Given we now 38 days in that’s coming up to close half the budgeted cost. The budget would definitely include the potential sidetrack IMO as would just be terrible budgeting otherwise.

The cost overrun share I always assumed is we are 75% up until 31.4 and the we are 50% of the excess after.

As a side, Layla was alongside the rig for 2.5 hrs yesterday afternoon and Umkhuseli has literally just arrived back on site. Let’s see if she has anything to load.

Its not a question of if there is a point to RNS a delay…. A company with no revenue and no cashflow and who is budgeted for this single drill would be REQUIRED under the AIM listing rules to RNS a delay that would increase the cost beyond what has been communicated to the market if it would impact the share price. Ask yourself this…if 2 weeks ago if they had put out an RNS highlighting a 2 week delay and increased cost would it have impacted the SP materially. IMO yes it would. Hence they would have HAD to RNS it.

There has been some chatter on the Tomax equipment pictured quayside that it may have been procured to address some drilling issues. I don’t agree. If that was the case it would have taken AT LEAST 1-2 weeks for that to be pictured quayside (assuming air cargo). - - during which time drilling would be stopped and cost would be increasing. Oil rig drill tooling is not delivered amazon prime next day : 0.

You have to encounter and identify the issue. Discuss a solution with the operator and other parties and agree a plan and get the cost signed off. That’s 1-2 days min. Then you source the equipment 1-2 days. Book its delivery onto air cargo and transfer to airport is min 1-2 days. Fly to cape town is 1 day. Clear customs locally is 1-2 days. Collect and deliver equipment to ECOs port based service provider is 1 day. Get it quayside and ready for collection by a supply ship. Transfer it (via Layla who went back a few days ago) is another day is min 1 day. Pull up the drill string and get back down the hole with new tooling min 2 days. That type of delay would probably increase the communicated drill timeframe and cost by a decent amount and would need an RNS.

Hence….i don’t think there has been a delay. Or certainly not one which the Tomax equipment was sourced for. I think the extended time frame we THINK we are seeing is part of the initial communicated drill + sidetrack timeframe and budget.

Time will tell I guess. But the longer this goes on the more likely we have something IMO.

As I stated before Umkhuseli is an anchor handling supply and tug. So that vessel could assist any move of the innovator off site. She will arrive back at lunchtime today and if she goes alongside she is offloading supplies.

Serica had delays at north eigg recently and issued an RNS for an additional 3m of drill costs plus timing delay. Serica is a company with 500m of cash on balance sheet and throwing off money at moment. Given ECOs near term fortunes are dependant on this well and ECOs budget and funding constraints around this well an additional 10 days of rig costs at 300k a day due to delays would certainly be considered to have an impact on the share price. As such, under listing rules I believe this would have needed an RNS.

If they hit any fluids at all they will want to test them….please try get your heads around that process.

I get the impression people think that shiny black oil just flows up the casing and they stick on the scales and go “oooo look it’s light oil”. Then dab your finger in it and take a taste…”mmmmm it’s lovely and sweet too”. “Right, call bill up and tell him to RNS we have found light sweet oil”

As per the jetthro **** up I recon they will want to conduct full sampling. Take a read of the below and you can see exactly what this entails and the fact that it can take a long time. Especially if (likely) they send samples off for lab testing also.

https://petrowiki.spe.org/Fluid_sampling

…the search for a new ceo by the board should be carried out alongside a full strategic review. Given the sole purpose of the board is to maximise shareholder returns this review should include formally putting the business was up for sale. We know the products are good. We just lack scale and leadership. This could be addressed through a formal sale process. If bids too low. Don’t sell. If bids acceptable and shareholders can get some equity and cash in a bigger better company in the process then it should be considered. The status quo of plodding along and seeing the biz fall apart whilst the bird and management line their pockets with shareholders cash is not an option.

This is not the North Sea. It’s western cape summer time and this is a harsh environment 6th gen semi sun. There has been NO time list for weather. The roughnecks don’t go inside for tea when it drizzles :0

Flaring whilst drilling is pretty unusual and would only occur if they had gas influx left bro the wellbore from hitting gas in reservoirs. You could control that to a degree by increasing mud weight to suppress the gas in the casing. More likely you could also just vent it to prevent a blowout which is obviously very serious. i doubt they would flare but stand to be corrected.

Some schmuck on ADVFN board stealing my hard work and not even having the decency to quote me on it. Yeh that’s you pro_s2009 you weasel.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:18.453/centery:-33.917/zoom:17

Just keep an eye on that supply ship. If she loads up today and leaves back to the rig, we are sidetracking imo.

So I am 100% sure now that the Tomax Facebook and LinkedIn photo is taken as quay 501 which is where the island innovators supply ship has just docked up at this morning.

As well as the table mountain view the two buildings in the background behind Boris Johnson in his high vis best are Darmen skips (the white one with funny roof) and to the right of that it’s Domarco at 24 eastern mole road (which may be part of Afrishore)

Either way. Our supply ship is now moored up in front of the location of that Tomax photo as of 4.12am this morning.

She arrived at 4.12am in port. Current draft is 7m. If she gets loaded up this may increase. But I would hope her destination to update at some point and for her to depart back to the innovator. Fingers crossed.

https://alltrack.org/list-port-of-calls-166-zacpt-cape-town

So…..

One of our supply ships is back in dock collecting something from the quay located where our logistics provider is based and where a picture of tomax drill tools appeared yesterday.

We he LinkedIn post DOES say it was taken a few weeks ago. And this may be the case. BUT Umkhuseli has not just driven back to port so the captain can take a dump!!!! We hid ships movements are key now. If she heads out back to the rig after collecting supplies it could all be looking like they at least have found something they wanna explore a bit more.

Follow Umkhuseli!!!