Member Info for Soder

The chad energy minister. Young, ambitious, US Educated, ex schlumberger.

This guy signs off (or otherwise) on energy deals in the country and his department was responsible for the statement contesting the transaction close.

I have been digging around to find a bit about him and I’m completely at odds with why this guy would not want Savannah to run these assets.

He clearly realises and indeed is actively stating the importance of new investment and public and private partnership in maximising the economic benefit of chads energy resources. He knows that can only happen with Exxon out. He states chad need to reverse declines in legacy projects. He knows Savannah will invest. He knows Exxon won’t. He was also the guy shaking hands with Andrew when the solar deal was signed. So why would they not want Savannah to complete? Who is pulling his strings?! There is no logical answer to why they would be dragging this out apart from one. Cold hard cash. In Africa, money talks. And for that reason I am confident this gets resolved as the alternative is bad for Chad financially. Very bad! It will likely mean they struggle to attract western investment on ANY future projects (way beyond energy) and that the economy suffers badly. Given the country is being run by a an unelected junta with very recent social unrest the last thing the government want is to rock the economy. You keep people quiet by making them feel you are making them more wealthy and improving their lives. You have to look competent. More oil is more oil revenue. More oil with Savannah is big solar projects. Big solar powers a wider economy and enables the junta to keep control. You take that away and you risk the people removing you from an already fragile grip on power.

This guy is rationale. He is westernised. He should know legal frameworks amd contract law although I would think it near on impossible that exxons and Savannahs legal teams are not vastly smarter and more experienced than anyone advising the ministry on the ground in Chad.

“We are delighted to work with Savannah on these two potentially transformational power projects for Chad,” said the country’s petroleum and energy minister, Djerassem le Bemadjiel. “We are already engaged to provide all the support needed for implementing these projects and having the first power delivered to our population and our industries.”

https://www.pv-tech.org/savannah-energy-pens-deal-to-develop-up-to-400mw-of-solar-pv-in-chad/

https://guardian.ng/apo-press-releases/minister-of-petroleum-and-energy-from-the-republic-of-chad-to-promote-oil-rich-basins-at-african-energy-week-2022/

https://guardian.ng/apo-press-releases/minister-of-petroleum-and-energy-from-the-republic-of-chad-to-promote-oil-rich-basins-at-african-energy-week-2022/

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/new-chad-pm-saleh-kebzabo-unity

Honestly I am super relaxed about this. If the sp was 60p on suspension I would be concerned it could sell off. But arguably at 26p the market was pricing in an almost zero percent chance these a acquisitions would complete anyway.

The core Nigeria business is an absolute rock with high margin long term utility like cashflows. That alone more than covers the current valuation.

Debt and cash. If you get over the suspension (which for some will be disappointing) this is truly to huge. This stock is going to multi bag next year.

Agree with d220. Although In reality this well will cost nothing as we offset the capex against our tax we need to diversify. The board should either do that or sell up.

Just to add, Assala production is ~50k boe per day and valuation speculated at $1bn. They do have a $600m Reserve based lending facility in place that was only signed in Martch 22 so i would assume we could roll that and then the equity component becomes very manageable.

Quite a few assets on the block in Africa at the moment. As you mention above, Petronas have stated they want an exit of upstream and some downstream assets in Chad, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Senegal and South Sudan. Speculated total value of downstream assets for sale is $3bn. They also want to exit some downstream assets including the West Delta Marine and Al Fanar and North Sidi Gaber gas projects in Egypt.

One name for me though that stands out as most interesting is Assala Energy in Gabon. Owned by PE (Carlyle) who in October stated they were looking for an exit. Carlyle only purchased it 5 years ago for $628m (from Shell) so we know the country/governmennt are experienced and open to transactions which massively reduces execution risk. Clearly it would be better for Gabon to have the assets owned by a corporate than higher risk Private Equity owenership!! Assala have 6 long-term onshore production licenses (mainly oil but some gas with it in the south), with the associated pipelines and (importantly) an EXPORT TERMINAL in Gamba (plus some good development opportunities around existing production fields). Also have v good ESG credentials and would be a nice sized bolt on for us. If you look where Gabon is located, it would also give us a nice hub around west Africa with Nigeria/Chad/Cameroon/Niger and possibly Gabon all bordering and in same region.

Gabon for me please Andrew and I would be very happy with Assala as it opens up the export markets for us also.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/22/27

Farm out of acreage with drill carry in 3b/4b should be near term. Fingers crossed.

Yep very disappointed. But thems the risks with wildcatting. Would think back to sub 20 today before any new farm out our drill plans announced likely next year imo.

Onwards to the next one. GLA.

I’m sorry but the weather comment is absolute horse****. Not even remotely possible that a 6 gen harsh environment semi would have weather issues in Southern Hemisphere summer time when the weather has been clear and sunny every day. You can literally put those ****ers in a hurricane and they plough on.

That will include the sidetrack (which is still the gazania-1 well) as we see the drill plan from Africa energy.

That’s good news imo and probably means they sidetracking …..I think. :0

That’s far too simplistic. There are discoveries (ie hitting payzones) and there are commercial discoveries. You dont just declare until you know what is in the hole and understand how it may flow. And more importantly the team have explicitly said that they are targeting 3 zones. He would not have to declare anything re Namaqualand and gazania on a standalone basis. Most likely as he won’t know the full picture until you side track into the pelargonium after.

There is absolutely ZERO upside to jumping the gun. This is pure wildcatting. It’s 3km under the earth in geology not explored before. It’s not a case of getting the black and decker out to drill a small hole and seeing shiny black gold pour out. As much as he may want to be, Gill is not Jed Clampit :0

I think it will mean it won’t have 100-200 pieces of steel casing pipe on for the wellbore. That will have happened by now :) But still lots of other needs. Remember the deck space of the rig is tiny and a lot of pep to casings can be done onshore anyway.

The trips are quite frequent though so def not just taking the pot noodles out :)

This is a pure exploration well. I don’t think they need to core it. They will already have rock samples that come back with the drilling fluid which will support the logging they do. What benefit would suspending drilling, removing the bit, and taking core samples give? Adds cost. Adds time. And just to get some better porosity data. Personally don’t think an exploration well needs it at all.

Your basically just quoting small cap mush and on an apples for dildos basis. When was the last time you saw some one saying UPFRONT and PUBLICLY they were going to sidetrack if they hit payzone?

Lets spell this out for you…

Gill: “This is a 25 day drill unless we hit a payzone. In which case I will side track it whilst we have the rig to test another area”

25 days passes. And still rig still on site. Supply ships making active trips to rig.

Is that bad? Would they have to RNS your doomsday delay given huge increased cost? Yes they would!!!!! Or maybe, just maybe, it means they hit a payzone and are doing the EXACTLY what they told me, YOU, the market they would be doing from the outset?!

Do tell us more about this experience?

AIS destination updated. She on her way back to the rig.

Scratch that. She is now past robben island heading north. Could very well be back to the innovator.

Think she may be going to an anchorage point in the channel away from quay….Which suggests we may be done with her for now. Squeaky bum time.