Member Info for Soder

The Labour Party arent even in government and there are no near term plans for a general election. Quite frankly who gives a **** what their policy is?

Love it TheOrms.

Kewjosh….when in trouble, double.

Coming on. Double down. 450 here we come.

Hey dip****, how’s that 5% drop short going?

Also, I heard there is a village somewhere missing it’s idiot. Hope your safe.

Because to move a large cap you need institutional involvement.

A summary timetable…,Analyst sees results. Analyst spends few days considering them and asking questions and doing a model and writing a note to portfolio managers. Portfolio manger considers it and may have some follow up questions. Portfolio manager then May make a decision to add or buy. Send order and the dealing desk will work this in the market.

This process takes time and you s research and fundamental driven and not just some spiv sat at blackrock, fidelity, M&G etc going…”oh year bruv nice results I’ll have a bitta dat. Put me in for 40 milski, geez”

Plus, it’s mid ****ing august. Most of the western world is on a beach or wishing they were on a beach.

Patience. Patience. Patience. You have the story. You know the h2 will be better than h1 given gas prices and tolmount on line for whole period. You know this will be debt free and cover its market cap with free cashflow inside 2 years.

When that happens you know you just need to get long. Stay long. And enjoy the ride.

This company just reported results which show it is making record free cashflow. They produce oil and gas which is going through the roof and will cover its mkt cap with free cashflow inside 2 years.

The gas price will stay high as russian has been cut off from the world.

They have a dividend coming, announced an increased buyback with likely a further one by year end.

What part of that story is saying short this stock? It’s trading at like sub 1x ebitdax for this year versus a historical average of maybe 4-6x for the sector.

If I was you I would be praying that the saying a fool and his money are soon parted is not true.

I posted them prevresults. The y will be updated over next few days I imagine

It’s at least sustainable through 2023 so that the mkt cap back in cash.

Gifthorse. Face.

H1 results are also with tolmount chugging out UNHEDGED gas for a full 6 months. Seriously, slide 19 in the pack for the FCF sensitivity is giving me a semi.

From a purely fundamental perspective I don’t know how we go lower from here.l over the next 3-6 months. Likes it’s genuinely not possible. You would some black swan event that crushed gas price to 10p and even then we have increased hedges so we look good out into 2024.

It’s the upside of some tinpot aim stock but with the best downside protection I have genuinely ever seen in a stock. It makes 2bn of free cash a year. Will be ftse 100. Will be debt free inside 3-6months. And trades at less than 1x ev ebitda.

How can it trade lower u less some odd technical shakeout and if that happened I think I would sell my wife, house and kids to buy as much as I could given the downside protection and super high probability of meaningful returns.

Can anyone confirm my reading of this slide which is looking at free cash flow generation for 2022

They are guiding for FCF of 1.8-2bn based on latest performance and you including EPL and revised capex guidance. that forecast is based on the hedges they have and $100bbl and 200p a therm for rest of year from august to December.

The chart shows a sensitivity for this cashflow forecast for oil and gas prices. For every $10 + or - have n oil it would impact FCF by $120m. For every + or - of 20p a therm in gas price it would impact FCF by $110m.

On this basis they are MASSIVELY going to overshoot their FCF guidance. Gas is currently 590p!! Let’s be really conservative and say it will average 400p for rest of the year…that would give additional FCF of 10x $110m. Ie the cashflow sensitivity is for an extra $1.1bn or n top of the 1.8-2bn guidance.

This thing will be debt free before the end of 2022 never mind sometime in 2023. That ties in with what Linda said.

get you head around buying a stock that is up 12% already today and ignore it. This is going way way way way higher over next few months.

If it’s debt free by year end I think ebitdax for the year will be $5-6bn at least. Even with this 13% move the mkt cap is $5bn. Assume all debt is paid off and this could easily be a 2-4x ebitda business. That implies a share price multiples higher. Worst case double.

Conclusion. Keep buying.

Laidback I remember we were changed a few posts on this months ago. Hope you are making some good money here. It’s played out exactly as we said apart from the share price. But that will have to come. Absent any natural and mechanical disasters if they just do what they are doing this will have to significantly rerate. We will be well through 700 next year imo and that for doing nothing other than riding the wave.

JakeK. I think Asia most likely. They always said would like a couple of main hubs and we have some assets there. I don’t think they would want to go take chevron, exxon etc on in their own back yard. Plus you have BP and shell all over the gulf.

Neptune would make sense but think that gives them too much U.K. exposure at a time when the tax system is a political football. Africa has a lot of assets for sale, esp in Nigeria but it’s bandit country and again tough to manage and a political football.

I would be pretty sure Asia on the cards.

The reserve based lending facility has essentially been refinanced/redetermined with minimum hedging requirements now falling by 10 percent of production to 40 percent in year 1 and 30 percent in year 2.

This will allow us to be a bit more gung-ho on hedging, or rather lack of it over next few years.

But, given balance street strength we should also be able to secure lines with banks and other parties to put some hedges on. I for one would not be averse to hedging gas and oil at current prices for next year.

At the close yesterday in a few Ed we had mkt cap of $4.5m.

We just did 2bn of h1 ebitda $2bn when for half of that period tolmount was not on line and gas prices were lower than currently.

We are saying will be debt free for n 2023 and at that point ebitdax will probably be $5-6bn for the proceeding 12 months.

Ask yourself this. Should a company generating billions in cash trade at less than 1x ebitda.

It’s a nonsense. Someone on another threat posted 450p today. That’s also a nonsense. This should double. It won’t but it should.

Things literally a free option to make money here with no aim market yeeee hawwww downside. A proper company. Making proper cash. With ftse 100 certainty and you can probably make 50-100% return inside 12 months.

You should be doing that trade all day and night long.

I mean seriously. Wake the **** up mr market.

This is free money at these prices. Like truly you n 20 years investing I have not seen such a freebie. The fundamentals are so strong that where is your downside over the next 12 months? This should double and how many times can you say that about a large cap stock. You can’t!!!! It’s literally a free money party.

All aboard.

Here is the current list of analyst recommendations and targets on harbour. At some point this so has GOT to move.

Barclays 715p overweight
Investec 720p buy
Goldman sachs 609p buy
Jefferies 490p buy
Cannacord 610p buy
Berenberg 435p hold
Arden 580p buy
Peel 525p buy
Stifel 670p buy
Morgan Stanley 525p buy

That’s pretty conclusive versus the current share price.

We actually don’t need anything to push up prices more as the demand destruction will be huge. We can make enough cash at oil 9 handle and opex 15 per bbl that we share not need 120 oil. Even 70-80 oil is pretty good and supports high FCF

It’s truly astounding they have found so many ******s to sell that many shares at this truly ridiculous price. Dear ******s, thank you very much for allowing me the opportunity to take money out of your pockets and put it into mine.

These are valid point but connect the dots and answer me this. Even with the hedges. Even with the capex. Even with dividends. Even with windfall taxes. Do you think that trading at likely will be 1-2x ebitda for the year May be a bit low?

Of course the interims will be good. We sell gas. Gas price has gone through roof due to external factors that have absolutely nothing to do with management. I could have put my mom in charge of Serica in January and I would wager the performance would have been near identical as she would have done as mitch and the other boys. Ie nothing but count the cash as it rolls in from higher gas prices whilst doing sweet fa with it apart from taking huge salaries and share options.