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Maybe. But if you decline the offer where is the SP going? The mkt is telling you most likely lower absent any defence tactics from Serica. Given what’s going on with inflation and rates and the global economy at the moment this feel like the type of market where you are meant to bank profits.

Serica management have no one to blame but themselves. Caught asleep at the wheel with their trousers around their ankles.

Personally I would hit that bid with my holding

That type of arrangement would involve save forward selling to vitol for them to securitise. Would have needed an rns as would be a material change to the business.

We missed the boat with regards to refi is my opinion. Should have done a full securitisation of accugas contractual revenues in 2021 but I think Chad got in the way somewhat. Which ain’t an issue as I believe the gas contracts have kickers linked to inflation? Not sure if anyone can confirm? But I don’t believe a refi now would be on any better terms than what we have?

Agadem, If you issue a bond you pay a fixed coupon which is set at syndication on the day of issuance/pricing. If you get a loan it’s a floating rate product where the margin above the base rate is set. If we have not signed a loan agreement we won’t have locked in a margin. And either way, given base rates have moved so much so will the overall interest rate.

This is simple stuff guys.

I doubt very much whether a refi at the present time would save us money. Yield curves and base rates have risen so much in Nigeria and also for $$ financing. Simply put, conditions for debt issuance have changed meaningfully over the last 6 months.

People need to get their heads out the clouds re accugas refi. Read the news….,Nigeria just hiked interest rates by another 1% to 14% to combat the same inflation that is tearing through the entire world. Rates are up 2.5% now since May and inflation is just under 19%!!!!!!!!

If base rates in Nigeria are now 14% and likely to increase do people think we will be able to finance ourselves under this? We won’t!!!!!

Your base case assumption should be that refi is delayed due ndefinitely. There are much bigger and much more establish companies operating in less funky jurisdictions than Nigeria that are currently locked out of the capital markets than Savannah. Bond and also bank refi kits are pretty much closed globally.

268p

Good times. Not heard that one :0

Ns1 is restarting albeit with limited flows.

Hearing will restart on Thursday albeit with reduced gas flows

Let’s put it this way…even with a decent proportion of hedged output…at 200p a therm on the unhedged portion that’s being sold for an equivalent barrels of oil equivalent price of 236$$$. Our opex per bbl is $16. So when selling unhedged gas we are making over $200 a bbl equivalent per bbl.

That’s never happened in history. The unhedged minority production is making more money than the hedged portion.

The recent sell offs in oil stocks and s due to recession and yield curves and rates

A lot of the market is model and a logo driven. When the market starts to price in recessions then these models and model driven funds sell commodities due to likely demand destruction. It’s a consensus trade. However these model have never had to factor in the issue that russian oil and gas is going to vanish for a generation. If you look at other commodities, iron copper etc and all the mining stocks they also beaten up. But oil stocks will receiver as the underlying commodities (eg oil and gas) remain at super high levels and in gases case keeps going up.

Fundamentals will play out via earnings and corp actions such as buybacks, dividends etc.

There is no buyer of companies this big in this space. The majors all want windmills and green energy. If anything we will be the consolidator.

I still want us to try buy or merge with Neptune. Very gassy business although maybe that gives us too much U.K. continental shelf exposure and uncle rishi made that a crap shoot with his tax.

I’m not even sure what the OP is saying?!

But stocks will move short term with wider market movements. But over the medium and long term the move with fundamentals.

All I know is that 50% of our production is gas. That will now contribute way way way more than 50% of revenues given the gas price. Gas price high. Gas price very high. Europe asking all companies to curtail energy usage to preserve gas supplies. This means gas pricing staying high. Gas price staying very high.

It’s not the price of oil that impacts russia as their opex per barrel is amongst the cheapest on earth. Its the fact they are sanctioned and trade with them is largely prohibited and certainly they can’t transact in US dollars.

At 60-79 a bbl harbour would still make a ton of free cash. Especially as gas prices are going to remain high for several years.

Basically russia could pull out of Ukrainian tomorrow, say sorry and kiss everyone’s ass in the the White House and EU and it won’t make any difference to supply. They have ensured they will be a global pariah for a generation and that supply will only be bought by a select few scumbags around the world.

You can make lots of assumptions but what we do know is this one fact. The cash balance keeps growing and the idle management do nothing with it to create shareholder value.

Just to add some balance, I never heard of Serica until this year. I bought Jan time and topped up more recently with an average just under 300p. I won’t be here for 10 years and have zero emotional attachment to this stock. If management don’t come out with a plan that I think gets this sp up, and up fast, I’m hitting the bid.

This is not the market or state the global economy to be waiting around whilst the management sit on OUR cash doing nothing with it. They need to come back with a “show me” stroy and fast or see you later. IMO Shareholders should not hang about whilst a lazy management team keep paying themselves handsomely to make zero attempt to grow the business. This management team has been caught asleep at the wheel and now they are about to get rodgered as a result.

Upomega. A few weeks??!!! Are you Jed clampet? Back in the real world this is a high pressure high temperature well in 100m of water in the middle of the North Sea!!! You dont just stick a black and decker in the ground and hey presto a big oil fountain starts spitting out.

Proposed offer gives absolutely zero valuation upside from north eigg.
Proposed offer does not factor in the exceptionally strong forward gas price out over the next 2-3 years.
= reject.

But, I won’t sit here and let Serica build a cash mountain and do **** all. They either use that cash or return it.

https://youtu.be/Do9dz6ypD7w

A salad? More like an almond.