Member Info for Soder

….this is what happens when your strategy involves locking yourself in a broom cupboard for 9 months saying nothing to no one.

And now you want a pay rise? This guy is here to line his pockets along with the useless CFO and the sack of **** board that have overseen this train wreck.

The strategy is all words. Zero substance. Zero execution.

Markets are trading for liquidity not fundamentals. The 10 year is through 3 percent, global inflation is rampant and we are likely to have a deep recession in 2023. I don’t see how c steal banks can manufacture a soft landing here. And when that happens, historically oil and gas demand is crushed.

But…we never had a situation like Russia before. So I agree with you re prices will stay high for a long time. A very long time. Market just doing what mkt always does in recession headlines for commodities but I’m a big believer that fundamentals always play though and that’s why pretty much all my investment portfolio is in oil and gas at the moment.

Just need to let central bank policy and tightening play thorough and think 2023 will be a very very good year for the sector when mr market starts to price fundamentals and not fund outflows from global equities.

Utter nonsense and drivel.

Gas prices are high and will remain high for many years. With it without a windfall tax this biz will have ridiculous free cashflow. North eig to come in q3 and the whole sector selling off at moment as it’s the 101 recenwssion consensus trade….if you think will be a recession sell commodities as demand will fall. But, that won’t happen this time as we never had a russia situation causing such a supply shock.

Sit tight. Dry your eyes out. And grow some balls.

When in trouble. Double.

Matalan just has a maturity wall and the high yield bond market is closed given huge sell off in credit and duration.

It’s a solvent biz but needs bond holders to extend the maturity of its debt.

Markets like numbers so they can asses outcomes and assign probabilities. At the moment the mkt is assuming we are unsuccessful and have to repay at least a portion of the cash we have. Maybe now the mkt can see that even if we are 20 percent chance of success we should be meaningfully higher. If we win and add that to our cash balance we probably triple in a heart beat.

I know they have not communicated directly about the windfall tax but the fact they do this on top of the divi shows the financial strength and impact they believe the windfall tax will have. Ie limited.

Just my opinion, but given the strength of the fundamentals here I would suggest that funds are not selling hbr based on fundamentals. They are selling based on the fact they have to balance portfolios when funds get redemptions. There is a huge flight to safety going on due to inflation and it’s impact on growth. As such equities are seeing huge global outflows. And when outflows come, funds have to meet those redemptions by selling a proportion of their holdings across the fund to give investors cash.

Covid as we once knew it is over. What we used to call a cold or AN Other respiratory Illness we now do a test to diagnose and call it covid. But this is not the covid of March 2020. These are just wider respiratory virus that have been with us forever and will be with us forever.

Novacyt is not a covid stock. Novacyt is a diagnostic stock. Mass and widespread covid testing is not coming back. But all the other ship we diagnose and test for will be there for us to use our POC tests and kit on.

Thanks. Yes just did some digging. They sold late 2021 into that pop around omicron so prob got out 4 quid plus. Good timing!!!

Where did they go? Bloomberg not showing them as a holder? Did I miss something or maybe just a tech error?

…we can crunch number after number and make assumptions re growth of renewables and the Chad and Cameroon assets. But the reality is…

This is currently a highly cash generative, ridiculously high margin margin biz. With $175m ebitda, net debt $370m and mkt cap $661m (£525 x 1.26 fx). Thus the EV/ebitda is 5.9x on a look backward basis.

So the question is….For a biz throwing off cash for fun, that would delever on a standalone basis, which is about to close a transformational acquisition and embark and significant renewables projects over the coming years, a biz that has signed new customers to its high margin gas biz and will 100% guaranteed have higher ebitda for 2023…..is that cheap?!

Yes. It’s cheap. At 40p….It’s a deal. It’s a steal. It’s the sale of the ****ing century. In fact, **** it, Nick, I think I’ll keep it.

I’m not sure what you want? A medal? A cuddle? What’s your point here?

Youre glad and bragging that you sold some based on the fact the rns has not come at 5pm? What school of Rational investing did you go to? Dip****s ‘R’ Us?

OPEC…. You have to laugh at them. Thinking about removing russia from opec+ oil quotas to increase core opec production!!!??? These idiots can’t even meet current quotas!!!

Dear market, there is no opec spare capacity. None. Zilch. Zero. Nada. Oil is going up up up.

That rns guarantees we get sign off from the Chad.

Go go go. This baby gonna fly at some point.

You don’t need their reports. You just need the most basic of accounting knowledge and to read the detail of the tax.

You can take a horse to water….

Laaaaaidback. Thankyou.

We don’t want an rns yet. We want to buy as much cheap shares as we can :)

Honestly, when they do clarify it this will pop right back.

Oh ffs I give up. Your wrong. But I can’t be bothered to go on anymore. I know how it works. Morgan Stanley know. Jefferies know. Stifel know. In fact every analyst at every bank is calculating it like me. Apart from you. Take a guess who may be wrong?

Auson who do I put this politely? You are talking absolute ****e.

You do not deduct the capex from your earnings and run a tax rate off the balance!!!!

Calculate tax of earnings before tax. So 3.2bn x 0.25 = 800m POTENTIALLY ax bill if we soent no money on North Sea capex. But we do!!! This year we will soend 900m plus. So at 80% re left we can offset 0.8x 900. = 720m against this tax liability.

It’s not ****ing difficult!!!!!

Augson. Tax is on Eearnungs after costs and interest and deprecation blah blah blah. I know!!!! The EBIT Jefferies have in their model is 5.5bn.

Aa2020. What are you saying? I think you are just repeating back to me what I am saying to you!’?

Let me be clearer.

For the 7 months of the year from now until the end of 2022….
Jefferies saying that EBIT (that’s earnings before interest and tax) will be anout $3.2bn. Assume interest is negligible when it’s actually probably 100m which is a tax shield in itself. So earnings in which this tax will be due for 2022 will be 3.2bn.

Take 25% of this 3.2bn and that’s a tax of just over $ 800m for this year.

BUT, with an 80 percent investment allowance against this our capex spend in U.K…..which will be about 900m. We can of set 0.8 X 900m = 720m against the tax.