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That will be nothing more than outflows from equity funds. Not a fundamental change in view

Share price would be zero as we would have restructured with creditors taking all the equity

Let me help you out….

2021 FCF higher than forecast
Tolmount start up underway. It’s not just a case of turning a switch on. It’s not like your central heating.
Stated that in current commodity price environment they will be debt free next year!!!!
Confirmed reserves of 488mboe which is probably 7 years.
Stated will seek agm resolution to repurchase stock from free cash flow.

What more do you want?

They will seek shareholder approval at the AGM to buyback ~15% of the shares. No commitment to do it but with that optionality we can see what free cash may be used for.

Look beyond the day. This could double this year. How many times do you see that with a large cap stock.

Star bright thanks for stating the obvious.

Not so much they have to notify of a takeover at 30% but they have to make a mandatory takeover for the company at the highest price paid over the preceding 12 months.

I think that v important for ncyt if bio were interested in a full takeover. The share price is so low they are incentivised to buy as much ch as they can as quick as they can. Personally I would not be surprised if they went to 25% as they can then block any resolution proposed by the board they dont like to manage their investment.

Barclays: Overall, the brief trading update is fairly uneventful and we look to FY results on 4th May for more colour on the FY23 outlook. There is little incrementally new here – returns remain high as product mix normalizes, and international delivery times continue to impact. We still think there is downside to FY23 numbers, but there is little to change the debate in either direction today. We are UW Boohoo as we think it can continue to grow, but 1) short term it faces the most severe headwinds of peers (especially its international business), and 2) longer term, growth will come at a higher cost than MT guidance implies. Headline multiples look cheap at ~9x EV/EBITDA+1 but we see risks to estimates (they could get worse before they get better) and model –ve FCF for several years while capex is higher.

Jefferies: Jefferies analyst Andrew Wade says pressures facing co. are almost entirely transitory, rather than structural. Shares will end up having looked very cheap at these levels; looks for them to “regain some ground” today

Liberum: While we continue to believe in boohoo’s long-term potential and see a path for recovery to the medium-term growth targets it will be a long road. On valuation ground we are a Buy, but as a team we were torn with near term catalysts absent. Trading at only 0.4x 12m forward EV/sales (vs. 2.5x pre[1]pandemic) and 6x EV/EBITDA, we think the shares offer good long-term value. While current growth and margin dynamics suggest rating on boohoo should be HOLD, we think the shares look oversold and hence remain a BUY. To justify the current share price, we will have to model in our DCF that EBITDA margin remains in the 6-8% range permanently with sales growth at a 12% CAGR over next 5 years vs. the company targets of 9.5-10% EBITDA margin and 20-25% growth in the medium term.

Analyst snippets coming out this morning…


Stifel: boohoo's 4Q trading update should reassure investors as FY22 sales growth of 14% was in line with guidance and FY22 EBITDA is also in line with consensus estimates at £125m(and 7% above our more cautious £117m). Whilst no guidance is given on FY23E yet, management has reiterated that it sees pandemic-related headwinds (on costs) as short term, and investors can be also reassured that RoW sales returned to growth in 4Q due to a positive contribution from wholesale. In the geopolitical unrest and market turmoil, boohoo's share price has fallen to just 79p and now trades on only 10.7x our cautiously-set cal. '22 EV/EBITDA and 6.1x cal. '23 EV/EBITDA. We think this de-rating is overdone and reiterate our Buy rating and 200p target price

JP Morgan: : Overall, this is a reassuring statement from boohoo in the context of materially reduced forecasts post the group’s profit warning in Dec. H2 sales to end Feb are at the upper end of reduced guidance (with the 3 mths to end Feb +7% yoy, slowing as expected vs. +10% in the 3mths to end Nov). FY 22 EBITDA is expected to come in at £125m, in line with BBG consensus and the mid-point of guidance (albeit suggesting slightly more margin pressure given sales at the upper end of the expected H2 range). No outlook has been provided and we therefore assume that comments made in Dec (for FY 23 sales and for EBITDA margin to be broadly in line with H2 22 levels) still stand. We expect consensus to remain broadly unchanged post the update. The shares rallied strongly yesterday (+13%), which could subdue any move today, but given the discounted valuation, and lack of further downgrades, the statement could send them at least somewhat higher.

Jefferies analyst….

“Pressure facing the company are almost entirely transitory rather than structural and shares will eventually end up having looked very cheap at current levels”

Or words to that effect

Uae said would support output increase for opec+

I read it on n the research the sent out on the sector. Some punch upgrades to valuations as a result of a ncreasing their price deck.

Serica price target raised to 540p

Increased assumption re oil and gas spot and as a result have boosted HBR target valuation to 665p from 510p

… they e used assumptions on the price deck for U.K. gas to 250p a therm for 2022, 160p for 2023, 120p for 2024 and long term assumption at 70p.

The result?

They just increased Serica price target to 540p.

Cha ching.

Top line may be fine backward looking. But I think the concern with retail at the moment is the impact of a significant squeeze. Consumer being hammered by highest cost of food, petrol, electric etc and at same time boo being hammered by inflation in input costs, wages, energy, logistics etc. retail margins already thin so may take a hit.

I am long however, and will add again in new tax year as all the above are always transitory. I like good companies with good balance sheets with leading positions. This biz will come out way way stronger and weaker brick and mortar retail will Continue to fold.

Never mind oil. That’s now a rounding error for HBR in the overall business. The U.K. Nat gas spot just went through 800p a therm. That’s plus 74% today and in $ bbl equivalence to oil it’s $ 618bbl.

The gas business at hbr is approx annual production of maybe 40m boe in gas of which 60% is hedged much lower. But the 40% unhedged portion of the gas biz is currently making more money than the entire oil business (50% of total
Production) and the hedged part of the gas biz……combined!!!!

They should go all in and bid shel for the 50% stake in the clipper hub and and leman alpha complex they looking to sell. Price prob $ 750-1bn and adds more gas’s production to build scale

No director transactions? What do they know?

Well it’s been speculated we have been talking to Neptune. I would be amazed if that’s still not being considered. But away from that there is no way with the cashflow this biz is throwing off we are not looking at buying other assets. For example shell currently marketing their North Sea gas assets around for sale. They offering 50% stake in the clipper hub and leman alpha complex with price speculated at $1bn. We could buy them out of cashflow this year.

If you have read the cap markets presentation from December you will note the comment “ diversify and grow via selective investments and displined m&a” and that harbour “will seek to acquire production with undeveloped 2p resources”.

Slide 14 is dedicated exclusively to M&A opportunities.
- over $80bn of assets for sale in mid term as majors look to shift strategies to green agenda.
- harbour say they have limited competition for these assets as they have strong balance sheet, geographic flexibility, and keep highlighting they have a track record of integrating LARGE scale M&A.

Any negotiation on large M&A would prevent any directors adding shares. That’s my view anyway.

Lay an egg? If this gets near 6 quid I will sell up and I will buy a a boat, a plane, a big **** off house by the sea and surround myself with liberally moraled , fickle super model types that just want to be with me for my money. Enjoy your egg.

If they get this mkt cap about 7.5bn they are welcome to it.

That would be a share price just under 6 quid. I’ll take that.