Member Info for snooz

Previously, they asked for the extension within the week before, and then the database that feeds the table (and the docs database) we can see get updated a few days after.
>Years 21 not 22 and
as per Diadulus - I was looking the the wrong column. The table isn't updated at this time.

It's also feels worth googling "site:www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov wedding bell" every once in a while regarding these permits. (I say feels worth rather than actually worth because none of this seems to do anything to the SP)

https://dnrweb.state.co.us/DNR/Mining/operatordb2/report-Prospect.asp?search=PermitPendingApplication updated, new date 30th June.

I've signed up to go to the event tomorrow - say 'hi' if you see me.

> I'm struggling with the NAV calc...that spreadsheet suggests...

Spreadsheet http://tinyurl.com/YCA-U3O8 uses:
1) U3O8 price from Numerico's latest tweet. (automatically updates)
2) an FX rate (GBPUSD) from google finance. (automatically updates)
3) proforma balance sheet from https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Yellow-Cake-Investor-Presentation-February-2022_Final.pdf (updates whenever the sheet owner sees some new balance sheet data from YCA)

The move was so rapid, I think we had a moment yesterday where it was both an all-time high in price and discount to NAV at the same time!

Bit annoyed with myself as yesterday I sold some at 402.5 near the open... I'd left an order ages ago at 400p and forgotten about it. I'm actually quite keen to keep holding this while the discount remains.

They have a deal in place with Kazataprom to trade at whatever the prevailing spot rate is - "10 year framework agreement"
The Canadian deal you are thinking of is: Purchased 2.0 million lb of U3O8 from Curzon Uranium Limited at a price of US$46.32/lb, and took titleto this uranium in November 2021. The purchase was part funded out of the proceeds of the October Placing
Nothing stopping them buying from whoever is willing to sell though.

$41.0/lb 322.0p
$42.0/lb 329.7p
$43.0/lb 337.3p
$44.0/lb 345.0p
$45.0/lb 352.6p
$46.0/lb 360.3p
$47.0/lb 367.9p
$48.0/lb 375.5p
$49.0/lb 383.2p
$50.0/lb 390.8p
$51.0/lb 398.5p
$52.0/lb 406.1p
$53.0/lb 413.8p
$54.0/lb 421.4p
$55.0/lb 429.1p
and, just for you, andmillsy
$75.0/lb 581.2p

Basically, each 1$ change in the price of U3O8/lb changes YCA assets worth by about 7.64p (this is all assuming a GBPUSD rate of 1.341).

Implied proforma NAV at other U3O8 levels:
$36.0/lb 280.5p
$37.0/lb 288.1p
$38.0/lb 295.7p
$39.0/lb 303.2p
$40.0/lb 310.8p
$41.0/lb 318.3p
$42.0/lb 325.9p
$43.0/lb 333.4p
$44.0/lb 341.0p
$45.0/lb 348.6p
$46.0/lb 356.1p
$47.0/lb 363.7p
$48.0/lb 371.2p
$49.0/lb 378.8p
$50.0/lb 386.4p

Reading between the lines a bit... they seem to have a low opinion of Kazatomprom.

While bid-offer spread looks large at 22%, requests for quotes up to 1m always get a response well within the spread (and a better price tends to be available for up to 500k than 1m) - i.e. quotes from RSP are always inside the spread. See the last couple of trades:
27-Jan-22 09:35:46 0.5412 17,640 Sell* 0.50 0.60 95.47 O
27-Jan-22 08:31:57 0.575 258,791 Buy* 0.50 0.55 1,488 O
That's more like 6% rather than 22%.

Talking to myself here:

> But sounds like everyone (including me) has maxxed out the amount they are willing to own of THR

I suppose the point I missed when writing this is, if the company looked in better shape then I would be willing to own more of it.

>Nicola is lying about progress being made here. No progress has been made. We already know they delayed the permit decision (on request from THR) until 18 March at the very earliest. Oh dear.

The progress with Colorado DRMS is visible on-line at https://dnrweblink.state.co.us/drms/search.aspx?dbid=0&cr=1 (search P2021008) - DRMS wants to see docs about access rights - there is some permitting work happening with San Miguel county that we don't have visibility of - the outcome of that will provide the proof of access rights for DRMS.
So, if we want to give benefit of the doubt, then we are to believe that progress is being made with San Miguel, which we can't see.

Every other board has chatter about people averaging down while the market has fallen. But sounds like everyone (including me) has maxxed out the amount they are willing to own of THR - no one tempted to average down (double up) at these levels?

I've got so much of this already, if I buy any more I won't be able to sleep at night... So I'm just gonna have to be a holder for a while.

Who's bailing out, cutting their losses, vs
Who's got any spare £££ for topping up?

>I called up YCA's media people early in the week asking (left a message) if they'd like to put out a press release on the topic of where YCA holds it's U3O8 assets. Nothing happened from that,
I hope they didn't waste much time listening to my message. The footnote of the last RNS contains the info I wanted & hoped for (i.e. it's not being held in .kz): "Yellow Cake currently holds 15.83 million lb of U3O8, all of which is held in storage in Canada and France."

>Lots of larger trades being made, any suggestions?
The 180k sell today was to close the buy on Thursday (https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=ITX&share=Itaconix-Plc&thread=F8256346-FBCF-49E6-888C-DE6FD1CD5197 ). Netting 1p in under a week was worth taking.

I called up YCA's media people early in the week asking (left a message) if they'd like to put out a press release on the topic of where YCA holds it's U3O8 assets. Nothing happened from that, so seeing this KAP news gives me a nice comfy feeling that I was lacking.

Have a U3O8 value -> value per share table:
$42/lb 321.9p
$43/lb 329.4p
$44/lb 336.8p
$45/lb 344.3p
$46/lb 351.7p
$47/lb 359.2p
$48/lb 366.6p
$49/lb 374.1p

Even the 180k "Unknown" was a buy. Someone on the RSP gateway quoted a request-for-offer at the bid.

>Separate spot price ! Is that thought triggered by WTI v Brent for oil ? Trying to get my head around it.
I'm thinking the ease of moving U3O8 between ports is likely to reduce as governments become more keen to keep it for their own. And that the increased difficulty would be reflected in the price of it in different places.
Perhaps I'm over-thinking again... it's already the case that the meaning of "spot" in this market is very vague in terms of time (delivery date), perhaps I just accept there is also vagueness in terms of space (where it's delivered to).

What I can say for sure though - is that this is all steering me to thinking about ditching YCA and instead putting the £££s into western Uranium miners.

https://life.ru/p/1463000 has a claim (google translate):
"In Kazakhstan, they have a long-term contract for the purchase of uranium from Kazatomprom at a fixed price of $ 21 per pound. At the same time, the market price for uranium is now $ 43 per pound, and in the fall at its peak it exceeded 50. Accordingly, Yellow Cake PLC, without making any special efforts, has more than 100% profit on the speculative resale of Kazakh uranium."
This fixed price of $21 claim is a flat-out lie. The outstanding deal pending delivery is described in RNSs as:
"The Company intends to use part of the remaining proceeds of the October Placing to fund the purchase of 0.95 million lb of U3O8 from Kazatomprom, pursuant to Kazatomprom’s offer of 26 October 2021 and subject to contract, at a price of USD47.58/lb, with delivery expected to take place by June 2022."
If they want to reneg on a deal at $47.58, then let 'em!
And the contract for future deals is all at whatever spot is at the time.

>Is this all a pretext for $KAP to back out of its agreement with $YCA, all under "Russian protection"?
It is sowing the seeds for this, yes.

How's this for a prediction: this time next year - there'll be a U3O8 spot for Western delivery, and a separate U3O8 spot for Russian/asian including China delivery.

I guess it's just the civil war in ??????????
Those question marks should be the name of the country .kz - either it got censored or some weird unicode issue happened.

Expect the GM to provide some clues about the next share issuance.

>Any thoughts on reason for drop today ?
I guess it's just the civil war in ?????????? has been called off (whereas I just see a whole new set of risks appearing).
I just bought at 345.5 ... I'm pretty much maxxed out on this now (a situation I've only previously been in when it's been a 10% discount. I'm just so surprised that after starting the week at 366 yesterday it's dropped to be trading at a discount which the spot price has unchanged.

"Yellow Cake believes that the uranium market fundamentals are such that purchasing additional physical uranium could be done on a value accretive basis." - my understanding of "value accretive" is that they will issue shares and buy U3O8 when NAV is at a premium - and last time it seemed to be a nice round number of 10% premium that triggered it.