Member Info for snooz

Quoting the presentation...
? 950klb at US$47.58 /lb – Delivery in Q2 2022 (subject to contract)
Now the discount is >11% surely management have got to be thinking hard about canning that purchase from KAZ and doing a share repurchase instead.

Sure - share this freely https://tinyurl.com/YCA-U3O8 . I made the popular error in the other tinyurl of using a zero rather than O in U3O8.

I've updated the sheet (and created a tinyurl) https://tinyurl.com/YCA-U308 with the numbers from the presentation.
Using a GBPUSD FX Rate of 1.329 which is a tad lower than what was used in the presentation:
$45/lb 356.0p
$46/lb 363.7p
$47/lb 371.4p
$48/lb 379.1p
$49/lb 386.8p
$50/lb 394.5p

I'm rather hoping they spend most of the $22.7m on the balance sheet buying back shares as it keeps touching on a 10% discount.

>Hoping for a continued rise tomorrow as funds by in for the MSCI rebalance that starts on Weds 1st Dec so they must buy in by market close on the 30th Nov.
Or in the SETS market open auction on the 1st? I suppose it just depends upon the fund's policy or fund manager's opinion of when best to do it?

The board did a share issuance when at a 10% premium... would they do a share buyback when it's a 10% discount?

> Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms Buy Rating
See what else Mike likes here: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/mike-kozak

A UT trade in the seconds after 4:35pm is always the LSE closing auction: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/discover/news-and-insights/what-auction

>Thanks Snooz and I bought U308 at 43.5 with no exploration or mining challenges associated !
I'm a HOC holder & not in the mood to hear any more references to mining challenges today.

GLA!

The surprise to me here is that they actually delivering the stuff back and forth, rather than just cash-settling the net difference(?) I posted a half-joke some time back about KAZ taking over YCA and buying from YCA and then delivering it all back again... "many a true word".
I suppose I am also surprised that it seems to have caused a 8p fall.

I've updated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw to show it's now expected to be $6.55MM rather than $6.5M.
$42/lb 329.4p
$43/lb 337.0p
$44/lb 344.6p
$45/lb 352.3p
$46/lb 359.9p
$47/lb 367.5p
$48/lb 375.1p

>Maybe make a cuppa first
>https://www.segracapital.com/commentary/you-say-you-want-a-revolution?s=09
I had a pretty low opinion of the quality of supposed "spot" prices... but I understand now (after reading that) that the inconsistency is due to the meaning of "spot" in the U308 market being not well defined, and that causes various oddities I've seen. If spot can mean delivery as far off as 9 months, I think I'll be better off looking at fwd prices for my NAV estimates rather than "spot":
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/other/uranium.html
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/UX*0/futures-prices
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/COMEX-UX1%21
I might have a go at switching the google sheet to source from those instead.

>Anyone willing to produce a new cheat-sheet of the NAV at various hypothetical U308 $/lb levels?
I felt a bit lazy asking, so here is my effort at this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw
To summarise: $45.4/lb -> 358.8p . +/- $1/lb -> +/-7.59p

>(I'm not trying to dip in and out, but I just got a bit uneasy when I recently calced the premium to be >7% so sold some).
My rough math told me, based on the prices here https://twitter.com/numerco, that YCA was at a discount at this level... so doubled up.
Anyone willing to produce a new cheat-sheet of the NAV at various hypothetical U308 $/lb levels?

I've mailed them this, will let all know if there is a response:

Regarding this:
Pilot Mountain deal was announced as follows: "Power Metal will pay US$115,000 in cash to Thor Mining and US$1,650,000 payable through the issue to Thor of 48,118,920 Ordinary Shares at an issue price of 2.5 pence per share (“Initial Consideration Shares”)."

Who/when/how/why decided to value these POW shares at 2.5p? They traded significantly below this level for the duration of the deal. I have a concern that a mistake was made by indicating a total value of $1.65m, so I would like to see this decision to do and announce the deal based on 2.5p justified.

Pilot Mountain deal was announced as follows: "Power Metal will pay US$115,000 in cash to Thor Mining and US$1,650,000 payable through the issue to Thor of 48,118,920 Ordinary Shares at an issue price of 2.5 pence per share (“Initial Consideration Shares”)."

I was thinking these would be shares in a subsidiary that would be somehow floated on the market at 2.5p, but they are just POW shares. 48,118,920 POW shares, while there shares are trading at 1.77p is £850k, not even close to $1.65m . Rubbish, and frankly claiming the shares are in some way valued at 2.5p for $1.65m just seems dishonest/incompetent.

This is payment for Pilot Mountain right?
I was thinking the shares would be in a subsidiary company Golden Metals Resources that would be listed separately - I guess I was just wrong to think that.

>I know…I’m 15% U308 and holding tight now, not going to chase it at these levels.

Just out of interest... do you mean 15% of everything that you've got in your equity portfolio, or 15% of your net wealth?
(I tend to find it a bit crass talking about actual amounts, but happy to talk percentages.) I'm about about the same (15%) if you mean as a proportion of my self-managed equity portfolio.
If the U308 price stays about where it is, but YCA has a discount I'd be buying more as I did have before (I'm not trying to dip in and out, but I just got a bit uneasy when I recently calced the premium to be >7% so sold some).

>Expect to see it tomorrow on RNS, then the day after on the Thor website and next week on twitter.
Scratch that - it was on RNS this morning at the time of the AGM itself.

ASX has an AGM summary: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02450322-2A1337959?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
No news in it (as generally expected).
Expect to see it tomorrow on RNS, then the day after on the Thor website and next week on twitter.

Still nothing visible happening on the Wedding Bell project permits - this is making me uneasy.

YCA@700p is a fraction over $90/lb of U308. (A bit less than $90/ln needed for 700p if there's more shares issues to buy U308 when above NAV and buybacks when below NAV; would need to be a bit more than $90 if management fees eat into the capital).
I'm bought into the thinking that we are on a path to >$100/lb two years from now, so (for once), this is an extreme prediction that I agree with.

"We could therefore see a bubble in the uranium market, and don’t be surprised if it is followed by an over-correction to the downside."

Article has lots of info, but that sentence... it's so bad, it's actually triggered me.

bubble in the uranium market = prices are going up
correction to the downside = then prices will go down
over-correction = then up again
don’t be surprised if = maybe
no dates, no levels, no measure of volatility, no numbers whatsoever. A random tarot card would be more specific.
As predictions go, this one is useless.

GLA