Member Info for snige

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7886/CBP-7886.pdf#page=14 Which states €17.5bn 2019,€18.5bn 2020 so where did boris get that fig of £438m a wk(€25bn annually) from? and what index are you using John?

How on earth did he know that prior to the referendum result in 2016,before any negotiations had commenced?
"The foreign secretary said the UK’s weekly gross contribution would rise to £438m by the end of a post-Brexit transition period"

Calisto,i recommend you for your rudeness,lol.

"Before the UK government transfers any money to the EU a rebate is applied".Boris couldn't be that stupid not to be aware of the official ons figures.The gross figure is £267m a week and after payments back to UK the ons fig is £9.4bn or £181m a week .
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31
Calisto stop trying to mislead the vulnerable.

ERV1,can't see them sticking to this after a trip to the IMF,so another misleading statement.
" the policy of the Party that the United Kingdom shall cease to be a member of the European Union and shall not thereafter make any Treaty or join any international organisation which involves in any way the surrender of any part of the United Kingdom’s sovereignty"

I said it was a gamble,the 35% on a low turnout was 5.8m or around 12.5% of the electorate.To give it perspective there are around 11m in the 18-30yr age group.
Boris will have to judge whether the 5.8m protest vote for "no deal" is more widespread amongst the general electorate and not just the old.

Following on,the result will be confirmed in last week of parliament before summer recess but the recess wouldn't happen as a vote of no confidence would be carried unless parliament can force a 2nd ref ?.
It gets complicated then,does Brexit party/UKIP fold up and the 35% join the Conservatives in a GE but then a lot of that 35% are Labour and it would be a tall order to vote Boris for 5 yrs and the remainer Cons would probably be comfortable switching to the Lib Dem's.
Boris is the sort of character who would go for the gamble,one thing for sure it would bring it all to a head.

As the favourite his first move if he's serious about leaving on a "no deal" should be to declare we are leaving on the 31st Oct which would give business 4 months to prepare,leaving it as late as possible would indicate a repeat of the 29th of March.
Still believe it's a daft idea but at least we'll get some direction late in July,if he does nothing it's more of the same,ppi will not rescue Lloyds this year and i can't see any change to divi policy.

Foreign investors cannot see a bottom yet to the decline of sterling so the money is slowly leaching out of UK or moving to the dollar earners,not good for Lloyds.
9 yrs of austerity,the government should be truthful and tell the people the country is in a bad way but that wouldn't win elections.
The EU along with China and the US are currently too big to fail,the same cannot be said of UK.

LTI,you must have spent a lot of time on that research.
Scotland has the bulk of onshore currently cheaper wind turbine energy (7,800mw and planned construction of 12,000mw)and also higher average wind speeds than the rest of the UK,In fact the country has already experienced 100% renewable energy periods and plans to be 100%plus by 2020.
https://www.scottishrenewables.com/forums/renewables-in-numbers/

Funny how the question of Scottish independence always seems to arise when oil prices are high.This time with Trump at the helm i think they are going to be higher for longer so for Scotland with a population of 5 million and another 20yrs of diminishing production there's still time for their dreams to come true.Most of their other industries are well placed,with spirits,fish farming and our reliance on their wind energy springing to mind.
The country has a lot of potential the only thing which drags it down are the midges,long winter nights,drug/alcohol abuse and a football team worse than England's.

LTI,"Are you and Bronx Irish?"

Good question,last time i looked the village was still in England.
We don't get out much these days so will check the perimeter of the bubble and see if they've messed up the parish border.
Is there another world beyond the hill?

People vote tactically on these occassions for whats in vogue.The rest of the time they vote Tory for increasing inequality-they love it!

LTI,it tells me Brexit/UKIP have increased by 8% however the biggest change which also has momentum is the Lib Dem's/Change party which increased by 16.8%.
I still feel it would be unwise for Brexiteers to chance their luck on a 2nd referendum based on "no deal" or "remain" the electorate even without the nationalist parties would win.

Incidentally Sinn Fein beat the DUP into 2nd place

Mytton,i would describe "the elder voter" as someone who is retired,who has generally more time on their hands and therefore a greater opportunity to cast a vote.Loads of studies have been made and prove the point the elderly are more likely to vote so in a low turnout your more likely to get their opinions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11390724/The-charts-that-reveal-what-would-happen-if-more-young-people-voted.html
As to their voting intentions yet again further studies have proved they are more likely to lean towards leave.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-why-did-old-people-vote-leave-young-voters-remain-eu-referendum-a7103996.html

I can see why brexiteers don't want a second referendum if the choice is between "no deal" and "remain",a 35% combined percentage with UKIP will not win.
Based on a low turnout of 37% i would suggest these results are the opinions of the elderly,if Labour can motivate the young voter as they did in 2017 with more clarity then they should recover quickly.

Completely knackered now.Don't know whats more tiring,reading up on Cotswold dry stone walling or fixing blinds up with a blunt 3mm drill bit.The latter has much more priority in my life than brexit and i've promised the wife i'll get the job done before brexit is done and dusted!
I can't be that daft then.

All prepped up for the car boot tomorrow.
Got loads of copies of "This England" magazine dusted down from the 1980's/1990's,........some idiot will buy them.
BED.

I think if i were a conservative who believed brexit was a solution to immigration i would be a little cheesed off by now.After 9 yrs,6 of which were overseen by our Theresa in the Home office and the promise of ten's of thousands we're are still at 258,000 net for 2018.
But i'm not a leaver and in the real world with an ageing population we're in the same boat as Japan and Germany and the stats prove EU workers are more likely to return to country of origin if they feel unwelcomed or the work dries up.

Pillarts,it's more simple than that,it's oil.The world craves energy and "America first" policy needs the current sweet price circa $70 not to high to change our ways but not too low to make fracking uneconomical.
Global economy stalling, just tweak your foriegn policy a bit and say your aircraft carrier 8,000 miles away from home is being threatened.
I don't know what is worse OPEC or Trump,i wouldn't be surprised if Putin isn't in on the act.
It's more of a cartel these days and betting cheap oil will return while America's production is so high is very unlikely.