Member Info for Smoothbrain

Whoops. Bought some more. Hopefully goes down a bit further and top up more again.

Looks like the world is seeing a broader faith downturn off the back of AI bubble and general speculative asset dump. The dump in others may find some of its way into gold but time will tell.

It is also thanksgiving and black friday which often adds a bit of a downturn for the global markets. Asia however has slumped and I am unsure of the full macro factors there currently outside of investor faith waning in Chinese figures being released (as per FT article) and increased animosity between Japan and China with China 'banning' travel to Japan

I hope the same Surrey, except those names to still be putting money into my alcohol account

I want the price to drift towards 10 again, then top up more. We need one last good bag filling opportunity before 2026 really kicks off the increase in production

If 3 more years of investing stabilises the next 30-40 years of business and dividends, it is definitely worth the final wait

Finally received an email with AI featured in it - AI image generation. We are beginning to take off boys

I think it's intentional, as the only way the USA will be able to overcome the national debt would be to rapidly devalue its currency. Those who can will hold assets which will stay relatively stable for value but have a larger number attributed to it, those who lives paycheck to paycheck, as always, will have a very hard life.

We aren't talking enough about how copper is also at an all time high as well. Dupax needs to hurry up. I am not worried about the recent barriers to it given what the President of the Philippines said the other day. It will definitely happen, it's only a question of when.

As for gold, it was always due a correction after such a rapid climb. However the fundamentals around the push upwards are still there, and even if the USA and China resolve a lot of the current tension, it doesn't undo the current US, dollar and broader international problems so I don't think Gold will drop below $3000 any time soon.

The 5% drop in price of gold today is what wallstreetbets would call a buying opportunity, so I am not worried that this rally is over. Far from it in fact

@Kat - appreciated, but even the mine extension based on feasability still puts THX very high in my eyes given their supposed Gold reserves, if we are rating them as single item miners. With the other deposits they are chasing, maybe worth more but again they aren't delivering there yet.

@accipiter - one thing to say for Nigeria is that business interests will be maintained above all else, see Shell for example. It's probably safe money.

@stocksandrocks - I am also in GGP. Australia is among the most stable of mining countries in my eyes, and so easy to develop and with a work force and rotation well known to it. The POG increase basically undid all the negative sentiment of a couple of quarters ago and they are aggressively investing in mine development in the 5 years they hold the profit sharing deal, which is smart in my eyes. A long term stable play.

Still MTL is my much larger holding. Bowden is opening new markets and potential. He is a disrupting force in the mining sector and that will be potentially huge. To see what he might delivery in Nicaragua on top of capitalising Condor assets and in the Philippines will be delightful

Agreed Punter. Was always surprised why THX had such a big valuation. Must be the dividends?

It's pretty damning that management cannot capitalise on a gold rush. Don't need to convert to bitcoin or anything else, just mine the gold, especially if you say you have a permit. This shouldn't be so difficult

Now that gold has crossed the $4000 threshold, and even earlier than I anticipated (EoY), its rate of increase could suggest another 10-20% gain in value per oz by the end of 2025. This is great for MTL as it scales and Darren may look to expand and explore other deposits as the others begin to start up simply because they have the capital to do so.

Nicaragua seems like the better expansion option currently as permitting would be faster and the old Newmont sites he commented on could be easy wins with the right setup. However if the Philippines continue to appreciate MTL's work, we can hope that even the slower permitting progress will still result in good long term growth with mining opportunities.

I have been thinking. Given the price of gold, it is possible MTL has the capital to develop both La India and Dupax simultaneously, rather than wait for La India to be pouring in order to finance Dupax. Consider everything was costed for the $2500 ballpark, with double the profit at similar ounces means that they can develop both mines with existing capital and then as Runruno dries up La India can take over to finish Dupax financing which should be closer to completion by then.

I think this would be a strategy Darren would take, considering how he seems to pursue efficiency and speed of delivery.

So even long term holding might be shorter than we think.

Reasons for gold price drop:

US not increasing its debt ceiling and paying down significantly its national debt, increasing the strength of the dollar.

Geopolitical stability, with current regional conflicts ceasing and embargos against nations trading with each other lifted. Tarriffs also to a lesser extent.

MTL not working:

Goes private

Philippines or Nicaragua has a coup of some description, or China invades the entire Pacific region especially the Scarborough Shoal

Some internal failure such as accounting fraud

That seems a low average still considering it passed that price in 08/24 and stayed above it the whole time. Regardless the economics of production are on our side. Let's hope we don't see any barriers present themselves and we should be very happy in 2-3 years

@Lee

USD to AUD is 1.5 exchange rate, and price of gold is 3645 USD as of writing this, so something isn't adding up in those calculations. Otherwise it means they have been selling their gold at 2500USD for the last quarter, which is way under market price. Maybe we should just buy their gold and resell if that is the case!

I reckon before dividends they might need to do a share buyback unless the value and production of the company explodes. I would rather the enterprise be entirely stable and robust prior to dividends, though looking forwards in 3-5 years.

That one village holds out at this point screams opportunism rather than anything else considering MTL's experience with developing mines domestically. I have a feeling this will likely be resolved quickly and hopefully full speed ahead towards development of this new mine.

Buying opportunity is a buying opportunity. Probably more will appear, but this is a good one.