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Lee, objective risk assessment is hard when objective details are being masked by them.

Passive information filtering in and us deducing situations for us later to be told months later, in the meanwhile the share price has taken a hit for an unknown reason which is later revealed does foster distrust.

If we add the development options faltering and not being delivered as per the original roadmaps, and then the backdrop of the world and how chaos is seemingly impacting everything on top, how can you be so trusting?

Objective risk assessment is not scaremongering, its due diligence.

Perhaps, but the war rhetoric is ramping up again in the USA. Next few days will decide whether the conflict escalates again. Everything indicates (to me) that it will. That might impact all share prices in the near future again.

Lee your argument only holds true if dollar value drops but maintains its relative value to other currencies. If dollar value drops against gold and all other currencies as it likely would in the scenario you present then we gain nothing, just the dollar is worthless.

Your argument of the dollar as a representation of all currency assumes that similar mature economies will make the same mistake as the US to print their way out of debt.

@CuckoldKing

The original runruno expansion plan

It's not a disaster in that sense. However when I bought into MTL around 1p, the road map was all Philippines based, with a development plan for expanding the current mine, and then the other tenements. So far none of those have delivered, and purchasing Condor has been the saving grace of MTL.

A masterful stroke no doubt, however if we are looking at this from a classic resarch based business investment, nothing originally reported has been delivered on except Runruno being mined dry.

That MTL continues to develop is seemingly somewhat lucked based as an investor on this side, rather than being able to have strong faith in a business plan delivering as touted.

The only thing carrying us towards the new mine being fully financed is the high price of gold. Without it we would have been in even more difficulty. Iran situation isn't seemingly resolved yet, so AISC is also likely to go up, as well as dollar weakening.

Not to mention the Philippines new drill sites.

Certainly a riskier situation than we were in 3 months ago.

If you have invested for a while, you will find ample small and medium cap CEO's who are full of it, and will say what drives investment rather than deliver. Bowden is delivering thus far, but I would say that still makes him a rarity in the AIM.

CEO's are also limited by non modifiable factors in the world, so what they say is not going to be deliverable at times for factors beyond their control, which is reasonable, but should factor into any risk assessment.

If this Abra news is as it appears and results in no Abra development, I am disappointed. The lack of mining in the Philippines and in multiple countries is a blow to the broader MTL model.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-allow-safe-passage-philippine-ships-fuel-supply-through-strait-hormuz-says-2026-04-02/

It's not the lack of relations the Philippines has with Iran that is the issue, it is that the US blew up most of the Kharg island Diesel production which will limit the supply of fuel to them.

Accipiter

Hamas been funded by the Israeli government via routing money through Qatar for years. You have to ask why

Hezbollah managed to get a foothold in Lebanon and Syria controlled Lebanon via Israel attacks and weakening of Lebanon. destabilising the country inciting it to civil war, and facilitating some of the worst atrocities during it despite being an external nation in the first place, and taking the opportunity to occupy the south of Lebanon for 20 years during and after the civil war. They were forced to return it following a UN resolution in 2000. Unsurprisingly they are making another attempt on it.

As we speak Lebanon is suffering the most strikes from Israel despite a supposed ceasefire. Iran is now retaliating against the Saudi pipeline, likely because the ceasefire is not being respected by Israel, which is unsurprising considering how many Israel slaughtered in Gaza during ceasefires then.

My guess of what this means for MTL and gold is that gold price is going to drop, as oil is about to massively increase in price again, far beyond before. Assuming this conflict continues as it looks, the markets are going to crash shortly.

@accipiter

Lebanon and Gaza are not terrorist states. Lebanon is a sovereign nation, and Gaza is a remnant of Palestine - both are established historical regions populated for thousands of years. They have been actively destabilised by continuous attack and invasion by a newly introduced regional neighbour obsessed with engineering conflict, creating new humanitarian catastrophes all in the name of expanding their borders.

You have to wonder when the other side to the conflict you reference is single-handedly the number 1 cause of child mortality across the world in recent years.

It will be a miracle if this ceasefire holds even by the end of the week. Israel is still attacking Iran and Lebanon today

I would say a lot of this depends on the state of the world. If today escalates and deteriorates, world shortage of sulfur will limit copper extraction and refining through traditional means, so maybe Biox would be a better long term solution if you can't depend on sulfuric acid production.

Condor_forever - definitely. I think that's why he was talking about the old Newmont plots in Nicaragua which were structurally intact and ready for mining to return to. The Philippines has a lot less developed existing mines and shovel ready enterprise in comparison, and as a result very large deposits remaining that are still quite accessible for modern mining approaches if willing to develop the asset.

Let's hope that a measured approach continues for different steps of the business for short, medium and long term development.

I still hope that MTL broadens its focus to beyond precious metals as this will create better stability in the longer term.

I was thinking blackstone minerals would potentially be another MTL target. Huge gold copper reserve

I'm with Major4legs. We are seeing Poland, Turkey and a few other countries selling their gold reserves to stabilise economy in the current turbulence so gold prices will drop in the short term if that is the case.

Iran does not appear to be easing up anytime soon, and rumours of ground clashes all over middle eastern media and injured US soldiers that are not being reported here yet. Israel taking further fire, again not covered on this side.

I think we have yet to see the market fully react to what is going on, and more countries are being drawn into this.

I don't think the Iran situation is over yet, so this market pump may be short lasting.

Sakura is right. I have also sat on governing boards and details of a project subject to this level of change over a period needs to be scrutinised. In the worst case scenario, investors can pursue a company for being misled on their investments. It is an area of risk and liability that is unnecessary for a company that has no debts and a supposedly secure resource in hand and on the cusp of completion.

It's at the least sloppy when we don't need it to be.

Https://abcnews.com/Business/philippines-declares-national-energy-emergency-asia-risks-energy/story?id=131397194

Isn't the plot that La India is part of even larger, with lots of areas still to excavate, potentially revealing more mining potential?