RE: Taiwan geopolitics5 Jan 2026 08:22
My impressions are that China will want to keep Taiwan as together as it can possibly do so. The broader remit of Taiwan and its influence in the Western world is comparable to South Korea and Japan and is desirable, similar to Hong Kong when it reunified with the mainland. Taiwan's huge financial reserves and its industrial base are extremely sought after, as well as the expertise that took them there. Strategically it is an extremely useful location when considering the USA an enemy as well.
I can imagine that Taiwan would only ever be invaded if there was no other option to do so, and direct aggression went directly from Taiwan towards the mainland. The current China is posing as the world negotiator and industrial base, not as a direct aggressor as the USA, so they will ensure that they do not make the first move in context of any aggression, as it serves to undermine the US and the existing narrative, and puts them in a leadership role of a new world order. If they portray a fairer dynamic as well as the might to defend it, countries will ally with them over the US, and the RMB will become the new dollar standard which will cement their power, legacy and influence.
As for us, Taiwan matters for MTL more because of how China sees entities within the China Sea region. With the Philippines being US allied their behaviour towards the islands is not dissimilar to Taiwan, except they would have less scruples about destroying the Philippines.