Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Having recently renewed my car insurance, I can readily confirm that DLG has learned it's lesson in terms of underquoting premiums. They quoted me £960, where my insurance last year was £318, with no accidents or claims in the last year. My concern is what impact this approach is going to have on their market share! The cheapest equivalent price-comparison quote was £580.
It will be calendar days. Though that's just the current stay. We should be prepared that a further stay could be sought if they run out of time. Equally, there's no reason they couldn't conclude well within the 30 days (other than the fact that penchant for pushing right up to deadlines). Neither event is material to the value of the share imo, though I'm sure the price will drop in any further stay regardless.
I'm a bit surprised by the level of the drop today tbh. Seems OTT. Settlement is still by far the best outcome, providing Samsung come up with an even vaguely reasonable figure. On Friday my main worry was that Samsung were just playing games and would pull out. Every round of litigation increases the share of the spoils going to the funder, as they're paid a multiple of the money they put in. Or settlement, there was the concern that Samsung could keep kicking the can down the road with onward appeals for years without paying etc.
The RNS says the settlement will be in one payment, but that doesn't mean it won't factor in the future value at all. Some on here had got a little carried away in their calculations over the last few weeks, but even on the lower end of a realistic spectrum I expect a payment in excess of the current market capital, and the company can be done with the distraction and get on with building up is trade with none of the funding worries that are typical of AIM tech shares.
As I said I would in a previous message, I did de-risk, selling some at 66p, but I bought back about half of what I had sold on Friday at 59p (admittedly not the best move) and bought back more again today. This genuinely seems as close to an arbitrage opportunity as you're going to get in a free market at these prices, but maybe I've missed something.
They may yet do so. You can't make a without prejudice offer for a company, and with ongoing litigation it wouldn't look good to a jury to make an offer if it were rejected. Once they've had the settlement offer accepted there's no reason they couldn't make a bid for the company and recoup their money.
I haven't posted on LSE for sges, but I've been a holder here for years reading the board, and I topped up substantially in the 20-30p range, with a spot of trading on the rise and falls. I'm fairly bullish on the prospects of the US litigation, and feel we're currently priced as though the prospects were only 50:50 (I'd suggest if we win the SP will likely rise 3-4x, if we lose, it'll likely fall and settle to 1/3-1/4 of the current price, as there is still a viable business here regardless).
But I'm surprised no-one is more excited about the Chinese litigation. I know China are a joke when it comes to IP, but Samsung's biggest rival for TV (by pure numbers) is now Hisense, who are Chinese. I'm not overly familiar with the Chinese legal system, but let's just say I can't imagine it will be decided by a jury. Even if we get nothing in Jan, I'll be holding until this is over, though I admit I would probably de-risk a little if we revisit the 50s.
The borrowing point had largely been overlooked on here before Jolly raised it. Prior to that there was some baseless de-ramping and scaremongering about auditors which was starting to annoy me. That and the Greek comments influence which was always over-egged. I was quite glad to have the discussion focussed on a much more relevant aspect. With respect, your Coca Cola/Amex point is a bit of a trite one: for every Amex there are thousands of wannabes that get bogged down in debt. I agree about needing to understand the risks of AIM. However, even within AIM there are still large variations on the degree of risk. A high-growth, high-equity profitable company in an expanding market (as GBO is currently) is on the much lower risk end of the spectrum. I'm just saying that the announcement on growth plans has changed from a share that was highly likely to reach 70p in the next year to one that now probably won't, but has a chance of reaching £7 in the next 5-10 years, or of crumbling to dust. For those still planning to sell out at 70p anyway, that's a game-changer. If you are sure you have the cahones to hold all the way to £7, it could be great. The risk profile of the investors will change, and it's only natural that those currently invested will be keeping track and want out before new investors can be attracted by the higher risk plans. For me, I'd have preferred the steady, equity driven growth, but it's not enough to cause me to jump ship. The most likely outcome imo is that acquired businesses will add to EBITDA, but won't quite cover the interest costs. The bigger company will have more market presence and still be profitable, but will have much more exposure to money markets. At the current prices, I still make this share very good value, but I'll now be looking to stagger my selling between 50p and 60p now rather than holding out for anything higher. As a side point, I'm not aware that Warren Buffett is a particularly big player in the AIM market, but hey! I'll go and take my self-appointed seat in the corner now and leave you all alone.
To be fair to Jolly, I don't think it's de-ramping to point out the risks of major, highly leveraged acquisitions. I allowed myself to get sucked (only a little) into COMS against my better judgement and so have been burned before on that front. The current business is brilliant, growing well and worth far more than the current market capitalisation. The acquisition and leverage news is undoubtedly dragging on this share. Overall, I think the former outweighs the latter at this price and am hopeful that continued short-term growth will drive this price up to 55-60p. £1 is a fair way off in my opinion, and highly dependant on the outcome of the far riskier medium to long term strategy of the company. Personally, I'm still adding at this price.
Oracle, you're making much of the increase in intangibles, but GBO acquired Sourcebits during 2014. It's perfectly standard practice to recognise intangibles and goodwill in such a deal, unless you think an IT/comms company is only worth the value of its assets. I don't see signs of them capitalising CoS, and I would suggest an auditor would spot that before any of us.
From the unaudited info previously provided we can estimate revenues for 2014 at around £1.7m, possibly a little less. They had £2.3m in the bank at the start of the year and raised £4.5m capital. Expenses in the 14 months since 2013 y.e, which will include one-off US start up costs must, must therefore be less than £8.5m, or they'd have run out of funds already (assuming no credit facilities we've not been shown). If annual recurring costs are more like £6m, from Dec the coy is burning a maximum of £250k per month using the Dec ARR figure. In reality, ARR has been consistently increasing by 10% per month, so we'll be burning less than that. On current trends, which of course cannot carry on forever, they're only around 6 months from break-even. I would hope if funds were needed affordable credit facilities could tide us over. Personally I'm not concerned and have just topped up at what looks a very good price. Any cash call is already priced in anyway Imo.
Over £3m ARR is at the top end of my expectations, and represents a continuation of the 10% per month growth, which has been constant for a long time now. At that rate, we'll be in a very strong position this time next year, with the prospect of profits the year after.
Is anyone else getting seriously concerned by a lack of January KPIs. This coy has always been right on the button with RNS, and I was expecting something at the beginning of last week. Surely such a delay can only be bad news!
The ARR growth has remained fairly constant at around 10% per month over the last couple of years. September was 10.4%, which is towards the higher end of what is a narrow range. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect £2.95m ARR by Dec 14 and close to £7m this time next year, assuming the market and sales force have the capacity to maintain this rate. This depends on bigger firms following their smaller counterparts in becoming our customers, which it looks like they are beginning to do, and the US offers more opportunities for this. At some point the 10% rate will wain, it's always been a question of when. This month's strong figures give reason for optimism that it won't be too soon. All just imho
The rate of increase in annualised turnover interests me. Up to 28 Feb it increased at around 15% per month, then it dropped in March to 10% and as stayed at that level since. At this rate we'll be over £3m by financial year end. But the latest update shows the US sales haven't started to take effect yet, so it's not unreasonable to expect a return to a monthly increase of over 15% by year end. The concern has to be cash burn up to break even point and the risk of associated dilution, but i think the last issue should tide us over. Then, once we're profitable on a daily basis this will start to look hugely undervalued at £23m MC. I've therefore just topped up at 262.
As said, this is the key word considering the company is currently priced to fail!
If we we're hoping for a good rns, some certainty concerning finance going forward would give a far greater lift than news of the drill or even peace in Ukraine for that matter (imo). Interestingly, the Telegraph had an article today predicting a 25% drop in global oil prices. If there's any credence to that I'd feel a lot more comfortable knowing a finance solution had been found that doesn't sacrifice our core assets and secures us for the medium term. We'll see I guess, but I'm expecting us to be back to 15p by the end of the week if there isn't an rns.
Honestly could not hope for a better rns! However I'm slightly concerned that i missed that the license wad up for renewal in the first place.
The market appears not to share my concerns! Boom!
I'm a holder here and am not trying to rain on the parade, but was slightly disappointed by this month's kpi. Annualised income had been growing at a fairly constant 15% per month (which is obviously amazing) but in March it was just under 10% a year. That's the different between healthy annualised profit and a small loss at year end. It may simply be that its harder to get new customers at the year end. However, if this is actually the start of a decline in the rate or even some sort of saturation point that means the limit of new business we have the capacity to take is £120k per month, that could leave us a couple of years away from profit, which is a long time in the tech sector. It's not a disaster, cos America has the potential to double our turnover in a couple of months Imo, given the scale of our partners' customer bases and the fact all the integrations are already in place this time, but it would be nice if the uk could get to a positive cashflow position this year as well.
A lot to take in with those results, but I'd highlight the following, with my interpretation in brackets: 1. Drilling to commence in April (ie immediately; v good for sp, although the drilling appears it will be tentative). 2. Gas still there and considering how to monetise, with a ready market available (would have liked a plan for that by now, but has to be one of the key finance options, as per 3 below). 3. More finance needed to fund plans with only $15m left. They're considering all options, including jv, farm in, merger/sale (now critical and potentially v bad for sp, although not so much at the current low. Hopefully they'll sell gas rights and do a jv on a couple of wells to get the ball rolling to get funding. However, there's always a risk they'll come under pressure to sell to a Russian coy on the cheap. However, id still hope for 40p per share min) atb, the next few days may be interesting!