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Here you go. Unfortunately you can not copy and paste so ive had to type it out. The whole report is glowing but Ive just put the valuation summary at the bottom. Very interesting use of word “take out”!

“Valuation: 325p and BUY unchanged.

Itaconix is delivering substantial sales growth, has a strong record of drop-through of revenue to EBITDA (20-30%), has acheived a significant lift in gross margin in 2024 and is well funded. Our unchanged price target of 325p is based on a combination of EV/sales multiples for perceived peers and a potential take-out value. We remain BUYers.”

There has been no bad news (only a steady stream of positive developments) so I put the current lull down to the market not expecting a major RNS during the next month or two. If the share price falls any further I wont be able to resist adding a load more to my already Ilika heavy portfolio, as I have great expectations for the share price in H2 and beyond.

Small top ups make sense at the moment as the current tariffs probably wont be there in a couple of months time, so why pay more, especially when they have a large raw material reserve.

Karcher is a great spot AJP. That could generate big numbers.

This is from the weekly Investor Network update I subscribe to: “We think trade deals with Japan, the UK, the EU, and India will be signed in May. And then the big one: a deal with China in June.”

If that comes true, and I think its highly likely then the timing would be perfect, a month before the Itaconix update. I see it as a window of opportunity to add severely oversold shares at a massive discount because of the trade war. Myself and most LTHs here were very upbeat after the last trading update and meet the investor event which ticed all the right buttons. So we could see a massive upward correction.

A few months from now that could prove to be buy of the year. Ive also been topping up around the £1 mark. The time to buy is when there is maximum fear which is now. The time to sell is when there is maximum greed.

Received my invitation to vote on the resolutions at the upcoming AGM on 8th May.

I am thinking of voting against some of the resolutions around renumeration and allocation of shares as a protest vote against the current share price. As a shareholder they need to know I am not happy with the current share price. It might prompt them to get more active with their business updates.

Elsol I think it’s good for the company to develop alternatives but I do think the situation with China will resolve itself. Trump is practically begging them for a deal. It might take days or weeks but a deal will come. I would estimate Itaconix has enough raw material for at least 12 months, probably longer so have insulation for the short term.

I think where the damage may be done is a delay in some of the SPARX partnerships announcements as business confidence has been battered. On the other hand the company may use the current uncertainly as a strategic opportunity for manufacturing partnerships in Europe using other company’s facilities.

The company did say they would keep us more up to date with business progress and a RNS along those lines would be most welcomed right now and turn the share price around quickly.

Market cap is just £13m now and they have £6m cash on books so this years revenue will be greater than the net market cap of £7m. One hot RNS and the price will fly up so I’m continuing to add shares whilst there is blood on the streets.

I’ve managed to make a couple of buys at 0.9999 this morning before the market wakes up to this now being oversold in light of recent US China developments. I don’t want to wait for a deal to be in ink, because by then I think the price will be much higher. Of course there is a small risk that a deal doesn’t transpire but I don’t see that scenario playing out. For me it’s now a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ a trade deal with China is done.

By the way some of the share trades here are incorrectly showing as Sells when they are Buys at 0.9999. I prefer to use the site below which is more accurate.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ITX/itaconix-plc/company-page

US Treasury Secretary Bessent has just been speaking at a JP Morgan event where he said the current trade situation with China is UNSUSTAINABLE and that he expects the situation to DE-ESCALATE. This is the most promising news we’ve had for a long time.

It looks like Trumps expectation for China to come begging was a big miscalculation. China has held firm whilst Trump is starting to sound desperate. Twice in recent days he said a deal would be done with China. Either that means there are behind the scenes negotiations taking place or he is openly inviting the Chinese to start negotiating.

Good on the FED for refusing to cut interest rates to bail Trump out. It may cost Powell his job but I sense this is a step too far, even for Trump. With mid-term elections in 2026 they can not afford to crater the economy and lose the House and Senate to the Democrats. That is his power base he will want to hold onto at all costs.

We are currently at maximum market uncertainty but my gut instinct tells me Trump will have to back down in the near future, before irrevocable damage to the US economy is done.

Thanks AJP

Agree it’s a complete mess. I sometimes think he wakes up and throws a dart at a dart board and sees which number it hits. I don’t believe the 145% tariffs on China will remain indefinitely. At some point they need to agree a deal but how long that will take I have no idea. The Chinese will not be bullied like other countries and they won’t do a deal until they are shown a basic level of respect. The markets hate the uncertainty and the FED have said don’t expect them to reduce interest rates to compensate. I guess all we can do is wait and see when and where this madness ends.

AJP does it say whether these shipments are on Chinese built or Chinese operated ships?

I read a report on Bloomberg this morning which said that under a plan put forward by the US trade representative yesterday, these ships would be subject to a fee based on the volume of goods carried, on a per-voyage basis.

Fair enough Elsol. I am currently in the camp that Itaconix needs a completely separate raw material source to China within the next 12 months given that we think the company probably has good stocks of raw materials to cover this period.

The US strategy is to try to isolate China and put pressure on China’s neighbours not to deal with China. It is no coincidence that the 1st deal likely to be announced will be with Japan.

There is an article on Bloomberg today titled “Five signs that the US and China will go to war”. It is a very worthwhile read. Frankly the risk to Itaconix share price is the least of our worries.

It really needs a RNS so all investors have access to the update, not just those on this forum.

They must have noticed that the share price has fallen from 170p in January to 100p today.

Elsol I am surprised the company hasn’t replied to you as they are normally responsive. It is worth sending them another email?

As others have commented the uncertainty is a real problem. We can’t wait until July for an update surely?

Sorry to loose you DB. I’ve always appreciated your balanced opinions. Did you check out the other opportunity I mentioned a while back? If so, I might see you over on that forum. I won’t mention the company name here, but if you click on my profile posts it will be obvious which one it is. Good luck mate.

Given we know there is a RNS on the Goliath battery due this summer announcing the release of the P1.5 prototypes with 10 Ah which will be released to OEMs and tier 1s, I envisage a lot of loading up prior to July.

It will be interesting to see if anything positive comes out of these cases. If it does, it needs to happen quickly as small companies don’t usually have a war chest of funds.

From an Itaconix perspective this is increasingly feeling like a binary play. I’ve previously bet on a couple of binary plays in pharmaceuticals where success or failure rests on the outcome of the drug trials. Resolution of the US China tariff war would likely result in a big jump in share price. If it’s not resolved then that will make the next trading update in July very challenging for the company as how can they give guidance on gross margins and the path to profitability? Unless they have a plan B ready to share with investors.

Thanks for sharing. These mini updates are great for keeping investors up to speed on progress which is now coming thick and fast:

“Later on in the summer we are going to be releasing our P1.5 prototypes with 10 Ah” . These will be released to OEMs and tier 1s.

“Then as go into the end of year” will be releasing P2 prototypes with 50 Ah.

In the words of Graeme Purdy “The fruits of those endeavours are starting to be harvested”.

Oh and let’s not forget the Stereax miniature batteries which are being rolled out commercially with Cirtec Medical in the US.

By late summer I anticipate the share price being double what it currently is, and by end of year circa £1 just from the progress that we know is coming. Once the partnerships start rolling in who knows how high this could climb? Good luck all and always DYOR.

Thanks Elsol, a really interesting article which brings home the reality of tariffs.

“Terry Cycling in 2026 expects to “face an estimated $1.2 million in tariff costs — an amount that is simply not survivable for a business of its size,” the suit says.”

Bearing in mind the tariffs on China are 14.5 times higher than the tariffs on the U.K., that is why I consider them an existential risk to Itaconix.

Still no word from the company I take it? ☹️