Member Info for smalltrader

James, the new group might have a Mcap $5bn+ and EV of $8-10bn with close to 18bn shares getting added.

There are significant number of shares being allotted to creditors and Harbor group that is acquiring PMO and there is a 6-12 months locking period for these shares. Same number of PMO shares will trade under the new company. Jefferies have a target of 30p opening under the new group.

The combined group will have a production of 220kbpd making them largest among the NS producers.

Dilution for those who bought at £1+
I had an avg of £1.10 and sold for a few thousands loss at 94p. Bought again last year at around 20p and sold at 37p before the merger and now back in at 20p avg.

So anyone who bought in recently are in profits and Jefferies have a target of 30p for the HE opening price on April 1st and SP is close to that now.

There are posts here that have links to prospectus which mentioned about significant free cash flow(1Bn) with shareholder returns in the form of dividendss for 2021 and funds like dividends so if HE mentions about dividends in their trading update this year then that can lift the SP considerably.

With oil predicted to be reaching $80-$100 and many analysts suggesting the start of oil bull run so I think atleast 50p is easily achievable here.

Another 5 weeks to go for the new company shares to trade and if brent stays above $60 until April 1st then SP of new HE group on opening could be 35-40p and should start to motor towards 50p+ by the summer time when brent hits $70+

So accumulate as much as we can now on any dips. With new company, possibility of
- FTSE 100 entry
- dividends
- brent $70+

Above factors would bump the SP to new highs.

I see that Melqart gets new shares after merger completes on April 1st so it means that their shorts will be cancelled with the allocation of new shares and they need not close their short at all until April 1st. The higher the price goes until the merger done, they make money with ncreasing the shorts but if retail investors are buying all the shorted shares then SP will not fall like we have seen all this week. Short tracker shows Melqart short position increased on 23rd and no change since then. Just another 5 weeks to go for new company shares to begin trading.

I would like to smile seeing the SP at £6 and say glad I bought at 125p and not sold a single bean. Just hold and you will be rewarded.

KenniGT good to see you again! You have been quite for a long time. Hope you did not sell. I remember you having 18p avg?

But I don't think they will open a new short now from this price as they have been by FCA for short selling. Don't think no other new company would open a new short now with the rising oil price. This could be the reason why we are seeing the rise in SP. Most will now go long due to the demand coming as we open up.

there is no guarantee of dividend but in the Prospectus they mentioned that the combined group can generate significant free cash flow to support shareholder returns via dividendss so dividend is "on" the cards!

Prospectus mentioned about dividend for 2021 and don't think TLW are in a position to give dividends even if oil is at $80

If dividend can be announced before April 1st then that can do wonders to our SP but I believe they can't do it without publishing their accounts?

It really is frustrating

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/whispers-of-100-oil-return-as-crude-shakes-off-covid-s-clasp

With HE group's 220kbpd, $100 oil would increase the MCap massively! 50p easily...

"
In accordance with Section 5 (footnote on page 11) of the FTSE UK Index Series ground rules, the free float calculation for the purposes of evaluating eligibility may include shares that would otherwise be excluded solely because they are subject to a lock-in clause which expires within 12 months of the first day of trade. Therefore, and contingent on maintaining a Premium listing and satisfying all other eligibility criteria, Harbour Energy will remain included within the FTSE UK Index Series while the expiration of the lock-in agreements and associated changes to the free float are monitored and reviewed in conjunction with the quarterly review process for 12 months from the first day of trading of Harbour Energy.

For the avoidance of doubt, the additional shares issued during the combination will be reviewed for inclusion at the June 2021 quarterly review, with the enlarged market capitalisation first included within the FTSE UK Index Series ranking at the September 2021 quarterly review.
"
So it looks like the enlarged shares will not be included until June atleast as they say that they will review for inclusion in June? Does that mean that on April 1st, the only shares in the new group(HE) would be the PMO shares? Also they say that 12 months lock-in is from first day of the trade so if the enlarged shares are not included before September then lock-in should not apply from April 1st whereas in the above excerpt from RNS, lock-in is from first day of HE trading, which is April 1st.

Thanks Dodger.

AA, I did not put my pension amount here in the chat to boast. As you can see in the post before that, I did not mention it but mentioned the amount in the last post as I was hoping to see if someone would have any advice. Also am pretty sure, many here have multiples of that amount already in their pension and mine is nothing compared to that. I'm glad that you are mortgage free on your house. I still have more than 60% mortgage and with kids growing up, I need to buy a bigger house too. It is not that great as you think. I hope to be mortgage free like you by the time I retire!

GL to you and to others in your investments.

The drop today from 25.5p to 24p seems to be due to that Bloomberg article but that valuation is just a start and once trading of new shares begin, SP should move up?

my pension pot currently stands at £125k and I have another 13yrs to go for retirement at 55. I'm looking to invest some of this amount into individual shares than funds.

I invested more into PMO and a meagre amount in ENQ as historically PMO was the favourite one but looks like tide is turning. Once had an avg at 28p here with ENQ and sold it for loss last year although made bit of it by trading ENQ from 9p to 13p. Back in at 18.4p so will hold till it hits 28p again! I'm still not sure if I should top slice PMO and add here.

Thanks Dodger. HL is quite clear about the charges and there are not too many charges listed unlike SL. You are right about the fund choice available for workplace pensions. I made more with ISA account than the returns on workplace pension. SL is pathetic with the choices available for workplace pensions but I cannot move to shares option in SL with work place pension due to the company policy.

I now need to compare II and HL and will then need to decide quickly. So far HL is the clear winner between SL and HL for me. See how many charges SL have listed for Level 3 option, which is for shares option -
https://lib.standardlife.com/library/uk/slsip20.pdf

Thanks PRDaynes. I will check II. I have an ISA with HL and work place pension with SL but am moving to a new employer so want to move my work pension to SIPP.

sell off overdone. Shorts have control currently but we have seen many times how tesla shorters got burnt. It will repeat again. Future is electric and Tesla is the leader. Others still have long way to catch up. Even Apple is down nearly 10% in this month so it is not entirely Tesla that is crashing.

Nothing has changed since last week other than Musk tweet on bitcoin. This is just an artificial drop. I will hold and will not sell. It may not go back to $850 immediately but it will be back to $700+ once the sentiment changes. Nothing can go in a straight line so Tesla can't drop 10% every day. Big funds that bought at much higher price will not sell. They will buy to average down and will hold to see the profits on their investment.

anyone with Standard Life? It seems to be expensive based on their charges -
https://lib.standardlife.com/library/uk/slsip20.pdf

I'm switching employer so want to move my workplace pension to SIPP and want to buy more ITV soon!
HL seems to be better but appreciate if anyone has idea about on what charges look like with Standard life.

Dodger, who is your SIPP with please? Looking to switch my work pension to SIPP. Standard Life seems to be expensive compared to HL?