Member Info for smallfish9

I know the deals are different, with Origin also retaining a royalty, but the rough calc says that on a per acre basis this is eight times what TBN paid Origin.

Hi everyone, I hope you are well. Any advancement with Falcon raising and being able to participate?

Now that is the point in the previous post, POQ is so far down his road that HE is unbelievable and uninvestable...the asset is great.

Insert your proposed answer to this simple problem.

OilCountry99

Well there are very good reasons.

1. Falcon has never operated in Australia, not for one second. There is no longer a prospect of operatorship due primarily to the company's track record. Others here will talk about the checkerboard...Falcon already took the bait on that once.

2. Falcon has ceaselessly farmed down and shows no sign of stopping. In the most recent instance the CEO said they didn't need to raise money, diluted themselves down to a 5% GOR on the 50,000 acres that most likely are the location of up to 250 wells and the build well beyond 100 mmcf/d and to 1 bcf/d. This is five years or more Falcon cannot materially participate in the development of the basin.

3. The CEO has an exemplary reputation for sitting on his ass and taking a huge paycheck. He has consistently farmed down interest and has not raised money with the intent of operating in 10 years or more.

4. The beneficiaries of this stupendous piece of management are in the driver's seat, have experienced oil and gas management, investment and the intention to make a business out of this basin. Meanwhile Falcon has only demonstrated an interest on squatting until someone makes them rich.

5. Bryan Sheffield is the fox in the henhouse who is privy to all of falcon's internal workings and is slowly chipping further value out of falcon beyond that mentioned above. He is an experienced builder and is expected to gut Falcon at the lowest possible price. At this point, and given the last fundraise, the CEO is complicit in this and not meeting any form of fiduciary duty.

For further context, Empire holds a laughably tiny area of legitimately prospective acreage and is vastly outrunning Falcon's position in portions of the truly prospective statement. A damning statement on the affairs of Falcon.

Finally, the investor base, at least in part has bought the story and isn't holding the CEO to the task at hand. And he loves that

KMJLiveson, IMO there is no doubt on the results of the next few wells. The rates in the basin are predictable within a reasonably narrow range based upon the gas in place and industry norm recovery rates. The geology is consistent, and with reasonable and expected operational practices the wells will do just fine. Large investors looking at this have know it for a very very long time.

What matters here is eyeballs, that know, being willing to put money into entities that are yet to produce cashflow.

Fyi, 138 wells over 51,000 acres equates to 371 acres or 1.5 Sq km per well as a drainage area. Good reserves management will always leave you the ability to crunch your spacing units down to yield more locations of you can hold productivity. This is a reserves bailout if needed from a. Corporate standpoint.

1.5 sq km of drainage for a Hz well, in a reasonable dev scenario is 3,000m length with 500m well spacing.

Typical spacings are 250-300 meters in dry gas shale plays. Thus, there will most likely be, in full cycle, the capacity to decrease spacing at least 40%, this would yield up to 238 wells.

These wells will IP no less than 20 mmcf/d and average over 10 mmcf/d over the first year. Try some math and see how you can distribute over 200 wells over five years to reach 1 bcf per day, then double it if you build an LNG facility?

Then explain to me why the TBN/DW will build capitalize additional production facilities and pipe to move onto Falcon lands?

I guess if they thought FO didn't have the capital to participate it would provide motive

Open to ideas.

From TBN SEC filing:

The two wells in the 2024 drilling program will create two drilling space units (“DSUs”) totaling 51,200 gross acres around the second Shenandoah South well pad (“SS2”) well pad. The 51,200 gross acre area has the potential to accommodate 23 well pads, or 138 total wells based on six wells drilled per pad. We believe the two DSUs will be more than enough to accommodate all wells associated with the Shenandoah South Pilot Project and over 100 wells for future development phases.

Born to Boogey, I am very well aware of the basin and have intimately followed every single development both technically and business wise for 12 years. I know exactly what the potential is and where it is.

Can you relay how this checkerboard is going to benefit Falcon? Can you convince the board why this development will move off of the spacing units that are to be cooperatively operated by TBN/DW in the short term?

You gave up the 22.5% interest on the acreage for the initial developement, and frankly to 1 bcf/d, in exchange for a 5% GOR. So, unless TBN moves the development, that is the five year outlook.

You can buy from literally any significant exchange on the planet via Interactive Brokers.

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

I only post this stuff because I like the vast majority of you and firmly believe you're being swindled. I would add that I once called POQ do discuss his team's technical capabilities. He told me he didn't need a technical team.

"LOL, Falcon is using a slide published already by TBN in 2023 for their newest FOG presentation. Since FOG is not capable to update this slide with the newest test results from Shenandoah 1H we have to wait that TBN is concatenate this slide with the newest test results (as an additional proof that the Beetaloo will have better gas production rates than the Marcellus)"

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-tamboran-launches-nyse-initial-public-offering.8055456/page-14?post_id=74401069

Bournetoboogie says:

Plans for Bryan Sheffield's company to become the operator in large parts of the Beetaloo before the end of this year with Falcon as its 22,5% partner, and recognition too that there is circa one million acres at similar depths with similar geology outside the small area where we're currently drilling was hammered home again and again during the presentation. Management was also very positive about the other areas in the Basin too.

_______________

If you believe this given all the information out there I've got ocean front property in Arizona I'd like to sell you.

Aussie shareholders will just keep their CDI's.

The ASX CDI's will continue to trade (plus-minus exchange arbitrage) and the US IPO valuation will be 200:1.

No delisting, straight forward 200:1 go forward. I believe this is no different than Falcon on TSX and LSE.

From updated filing:

Our goal is joint venture approval of the Shenandoah South Pilot Project in mid-2024 and believe we can achieve ~40 MMcf/d (gross) plateau production in 1H 2026. Based on our petrophysical analysis from completed appraisal wells, we have already identified what we believe to be the most productive acreage and shale benches to target for our first stage wells. The two wells in the 2024 drilling program will create two drilling space units (“DSUs”) totaling 51,200 gross acres around the second Shenandoah South well pad (“SS2”) well pad. The 51,200 gross acre area has the potential to accommodate 23 well pads, or 138 total wells based on six wells drilled per pad. We believe the two DSUs will be more than enough to accommodate all wells associated with the Shenandoah South Pilot Project and over 100 wells for future development phases.

My apologies, I had not read the raise correctly.

The recent capital raise is apparently insufficient to cover salaries for the next 12 months. Should this be taken as an indication that there will be reduced G&A in the near term?

Under what conditions do you foresee FOG actively participating in Beetaloo operations?

How do you plan the acquire the necessary capital?

What is the timing of this?

Re POQ's options. He doesn't care what they're worth, that's abundantly and consistently clear.

I didn't say the valuation was in that range. I said the component of valuation due to the cash flow would be in that range. The idea here is to have a reasonable concept of valuation.

Unless there is some other motive.