Member Info for smallfish9

Lol, only an American would believe that there are no shale development projects outside of the US. The constant US technology rips me up...

First thing for me, the news is fantastic. Great flow rates, great gas prices and a virtually unrivalled LNG scale on the planet. You have the scale of the Marcellus with two zones - IE double the scale of the Marcellus. Stupendous and a true investment unicorn.

Second thing, the ASX is a sloth, nothing on TBN value. Dead as dead gets. Good riddance and welcome to the NYSE. Don't tell me it's already priced in. The market is drinking wine, walking the beach and watching footie over the weekend. Good riddance.

Indeed, 6400 acres/185 acres is 35 spacing units (@ 2,500 by 300m). At 15 bcf EUR (a humble starting point of 6 bcf/1000m) you would be relinquishing about half a TCF of 1P at development. Using $4/mmcf you end up forgoing 22.5% of the value or about $470 million.

And it would probably come with a back-in penalty and further abuse in terms of being unable to access a facility.

Better off to just get abused.

Agreed re that there are reasons to take non-op. However the non-op partner is generally the punching bag who is forced to have excess money ready for anything that happens, they also generally get abused on transportation, processing and g&a allocation. Santos is expert any thos abuse, seemingly uninterested in any activity that doesn't prove something is uneconomic, and keeping supply down.

None of these things point to Santos investing on anything other than EP161 where they hold operators status.

Ad er reading the presentations, this is a 2C metric. Critically, 2C is contingent upon have production sanctioned. An announcement of commerciality and the sanction of pilot development would convert some portion of the 27 TCF from prospective to contingent. Further, some would go to proven but it would be relatively insignificant from a value standpoint.

Demonstrating better than baseline recoveries would boost the 27 TCF as mentioned.

I don't see anybody paying top dollar for non-op positions. Certainly a smaller set of buyers than the op position.

These are not projections, they are recent unrisked acquisition prices of a given reserve class. And, at that they are at low and defensible recoveries. Enhanced recoveries will drive value up proportionally, for example 20% would be a humble and defensible early estimate of recover. 50% is not uncommon...ie 2.5x value upon demonstrating that recovery is possible.

My thought is that the Amungee pad was the only place that Tamboran could go to fulfill Origin's farm-in commitments. There wasn't enough time to get new wells through the paralyzing licensing process.

The big boys have been watching for a long time.

Margaritaman - Marcellus values have gone next to nowhere in the last 12 years. The production - hell yes. But valuations don't start with mature production levels, especially one held in so few hands.

Keep in mind that the more recent top Marcellus wells are IP'ing at 60-80 mmcf/d on lengths I would guess are over 4km. I don't expect to see that just yet. Now...if you ran that through the potential economics somebodies eyes...and wallet would surely fall out.

805slo, the thermal maturity of the reservoir, in other words the cumulative effect of temperature, determine the hydrocarbon composition. A fair bit goes into this but a simplified take is that Carpentaria is at 1,400m, Amungee 2,400m and Tanumbirini 3,400m with SS1 about 2,900 by memory.

The liquids content is sublty variable with less at increased depth. These are not wet gas reservoirs by global standard and the variance in flare color should be minimal.

Despite the pessimism here, DO NOT underestimate what can be learned from recurring measurement of the flare and an understanding of remote sensing.

People used to get paid big bucks to hide in the bush and measure flares.

The driver of production is the reservoir properties, looking into ancient history isn't going to tell you anything. Current IP30's in dry gas plays are 20-50 mmcf/d on wells ranging from 3000-4500m in length. That range is 6+ mmcf/d/1000M on the low end and exceeds 15 mmcf/d/1000m on the high end. Any amount of review that considers Aussie gas at $13/MCF or better should make your eyes bleed.

The staff I linked to generally started April 2021. Re Sheffield, basically yes.

wetwater, faron was hired along with a number of ex-pioneer staff. that's when the changeover happened, you will note that it was pre-sheffield and likely a pre-condition to investement.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/faron-thibodeaux/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/fellipe-magalhaes-63963254/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaime-lopez-87a66215/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/neil-barman/

i don't follow your logic in sheffield control on tbn, yes they are a large investor and have board representation. and yes they have some oversight, but the actual technical work needs to be done. i've seen more than enough windbags talk about everything they know and do when its really their technical teams that are the key.

take this quote for example:

"tamboran expects to complete shenandoah south 1h, its newest horizontal, in december 2023, using 5.5-inch casing and slickwater. “you can't get a high enough pressure through 4.5-inch casing,” sheffield said. “you need higher pressure to break up the rock.” “that’s what has delayed the play. the right services and the right recipe will get the job done.”

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/bryan-sheffield-asset-sellers-need-bidask-therapy-207382

its bull**** front to back. he's portraying the basin as a failed 4.5 inch gel fracked disaster and that's not the truth. that intellectual laziness is the source of rank and file decision making error. does he even understand friction loss? or is it an lazy and arbitrary comment that is made in a public setting? more ego than brains.

https://boereport.com/2024/01/22/top-well-report-december-sneak-peek-see-who-drilled-the-highest-producing-natural-gas-well-and-most-prolific-condensate-well-in-over-a-year-boe-intel/

33 mmcf/d from 4.5 inch casing.

Re Progress this January. This is the wet season, highway closures and evacuations are occurring further north. I'm sure this is contributing to some extent to the pace.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_stn_num=14626

Personally I think the armchair coaching of Riddle vs Sheffield is delusional, I've seen optimism that Sheffield was 'taking over the frac' following Amungee. The reality is that a Pioneer (IE Sheffield) team had been in place for two years before the Amungee frac...the statement had no basis and was lazy.

Is there a competitive tension between Riddle and Sheffield - I highly doubt it. Rather I'd suggest there is a lot of mutual alignment, they both want the same thing.

Trolls will troll.

Nailed it, Christmas. This is a remote location...

No problem newtofo, indeed more updates would be nice, but I don't expect we will see anything until the 30 day rate that was promised is ready.

Re no flare, unless we know if TBN ran tubing initially there isn't much to go on.

If the well lifted its own fluids on flowback and broke through to flare then this shutdown could be due to running tubing to getting on with proper testing. In other words, the first flow was just clean-up.

If tubing was run right off the bat then the shutdown could be due to washed out (eroded with sand) surface equipment or other issues.

IMO the likelihood that the well breaks through to gas and then can't lift is relatively remote and most likely due to operational process or running tubing.