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Expected EBITDA £64m within 5 years.
Valuation at standard X 6 would value the company at £384m within 5 years.
For what it’s worth, my opinion is it’s best guess on a bid but looking forward is what they will have to consider and looking back will be the fuel for negotiations.
However, everything will be taken into account and anything between 100p and 200p is reasonable to expect.
I really fail to see the relevance of the short positions of IG traders. I use IG and Barclays. I’m long so I’m one of the 60%.
Surely the important factor is declared shorts over 0.5% and that’s only one at 0.79% from memory.
Someone mentioned PFC I’m also long on that one however the IG long short ratio appears more in line with declared shorts.
According to IG, Esken has zero shorts which may be true but hasn’t had a positive impact on the SP.
It’s easy to get hung up on shorts and these boards thrive on blaming them for every drop.
An alternative angle is that without them we would probably have to pay more to buy in.
SDRY IMO will be the subject of a takeover and the risk to the shorts that exist when this is announced is probably less severe than in PFC but severe non the less.
Looking forward to the next 2 weeks
GLA
I’m not entirely certain of all the rules, I think the announcement on the 2nd was an intent deceleration. Whereas the 2.9 means we’ve entered an offer period which I more formal.
Also not certain of JD’s total holding as he accumulated another 1m shares through legal and general a few days ago. If he is holding over 30% he may be obliged to make a cash offer under different rules.
Outside of the takeover context, where persons acting in concert acquire 30% of a relevant company or increase their holding between 30% and 50%, the concert party may be required to make a mandatory cash offer to all other shareholders.
Can’t see a 2.1 but a 2.9 was announced yesterday after the close.
The explanation of a 2.9 is
When an offer period begins, the offeree company must announce, as soon as possible and in any case by 7.15 am on the next business day, details of all classes of relevant securities issued by the company, together with the numbers of such securities in issue.
So it would appear an offer is imminent
Fail to see how this is 50/50
Fact, JD is financing a bid for the business.
Other parties are interested.
If you seriously think an acceptable bid will be 30p, you’re delusional.
My average is 38.5p and while disappointed that I could have bought lower, I’m convinced the bid will come and will be north of 70p, no idea how far north.
The amount of bashing taking place highlights how desperately they need this to drop. And it’ll only scare PI’s.
Do your own research guys.
I have a thought or two for you.
It’s no secret that SDRY is the subject of a takeover, it’s public knowledge.
Legal and general purchased over 1m shares on behalf of the CEO at 42p.
The rise post-announcement whilst significant from a % view only recovered the SP To November/ December levels
Good luck with your 25p target.
Nobody knows what the bid will be but it’s coming tic-toc
PFC vet
I wish you the very best of luck.
Personally, I’ve reduced my exposure not because I’m certain the SP will drop but because I’ve seen it before. I reduced at 33 ish but still hold a decent amount incase the RNS drops stating the cash flow issue is solved. If we see sub 25 then I’ll be seriously considering buying back in again.
Suspect todays rise was a play by shorts reducing then increasing again, seen this game before.
Struggling to understand why this business is still so heavily shorted as the risk of a significant rise is severe.
It’s an attempted asset grab the according to the BOD has no grounds.