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Infact Toffers
I think you owe the board an explanation
Yesterday at 08:09 you said “hold tight I’ve just bought more”
This morning you’re all gloom and doom?
If it helps you, yesterday’s SP action was most likely an opportunity for MM’s to spread a little fear based on Ted baker going into administration. I had a pair of TB boxers once, terrible quality, no wonder they’re bust. Superdry pride themselves on affordable quality. There’s a significant difference and not forgetting TB sold 2 years ago for £211m. Buyers probably sweet stripped it borrowed what they could and threw it away? That’s not what’s happening with SDRY. It’s a management buyout, why? Because he see’s value in the business he built. Last years figures have pushed the market value down beautifully for him and that’s why he’s trying to take it private. I dare say within 4-5 years and some decent financial reports he will re-list. Why not, money plus money =JD isn’t a fool and neither are his advisors, whom ever they are. It’s business, we’re just here short term for the ride.
77
Reasonable analysis but the board is supposed to act in the interest of shareholders. Therefore reject any offer that is too low regardless of what the current SP is. Wood group is a good example.
SP WAS 140p, offer made at 220p and rejected as it undervalued the business. Apollo walked away and the SP came back down. Importantly the board rejected. Sad that shareholders are currently down but the long term outlook is positive according to the board. Same with SDRY positive outlook with effective restructuring values the business considerably more than today’s market.
To add to my previous
Once the calculations are complete, the offer will be submitted to the board for approval, I’m guessing that it will then go to a vote either with or without the recommendation of the board. I’d guess JD and his advisers will be calculating whether or not it’s in his interest to breach 30%, clearly he hasn’t yet.
With all that in mind and forecast EBITDA of £64m within a few years, typical valuation of 5X EBITDA would value the business at circa £300m within a few years. Minus any debt of course. It’s a good deal for JD at the right price and that’s what we’re all waiting to find out. Kellet seems convinced enough to purchase 2.7m shares and his average must be mid to high 30’s.
GLA
Steve077
I don’t think it’s that simple.it’s only if JD either on his own or in concert breaches 30% holding that he will be forced to make an offer which must be no less than the highest SP achieved in the past 12 month period.
As it stands, there will be various advisor’s valuing the business taking into account debt, cash, inventory, basically assets vs debt plus future earnings and that’s where it gets interesting as it’s a variable and not a sure thing. The current restructuring will also shed light on the future value, so there are many things at play here not simply 30% on 24p
Bucket man
Interesting choice of words (bottle) personally I’m much better at holding a loss as I am now but weaker when I’m in profit. If MM’s want shares I’d suggest taking it up to high 30’s again. Point blank refuse to believe superdry is only worth £24m.
Ted baker sold 2 years ago for £211m (I seem to remember) superdry is a different beast IMO
I’m not entirely sure if he breached 30% whether the offer has to be the highest from the day of the offer or from when he declared his intention to buy? If he waits until early April it drops to around 90p but if it counts from his declaration then it’s 130p???
LWHL
Completely understand your feelings on this SP action. I found last week particularly tough as I was down 30% and really tempted to cut my losses. The trolls were in overdrive after the loan RNS which although transparent, it does begin to resonate when you see your investment collapsing. I must admit that yesterday’s action of 6m shares purchased against the sells at 10-1 has restored my conviction. This has been a rodeo and I’m looking forward to getting off but not until JD makes his offer.
Good luck to all
Coxon
It has been a tough hold this week, I’m so deep that I’ve added and averaged down to 33p. Best not to read too much into what’s posted on here, let alone ADVFN. It’s like the Wild West and AI isn’t helping when whoever controls it decides on a direction.
I’ve stayed the course regardless based on JD doing what he says and also, revenue while missing targets is still over 600m, cost cutting is in motion and isn’t cheap but very effective, worst case, JD fails and the business continues to cut costs and returns to profitability as is predicted. Pretty sure that’s why JD wants to buy it now, all time low SP because of poor performance which given the economic situation isn’t shocking but the Mcap is totally shocking. From billions to chump change, not surprised JD is pouncing now. Perfect timing and I’m sure he’ll do very well from this and resist in 2-3 years. The only question for us mortals holding is how much? Could be 50,100,150 although I doubt the later, otherwise he would have increased above 30% and be obliged to pay 130ish so my best guess is somewhere between 50 and 90
Makes no difference
It’s worth whatever JD bids unless his bid is too low and another bidder appears. Hilco is nothing more than a weak excuse for the mm’s and shorts to mess around with the SO. Most of us are locked in and waiting for the bid.
The market knows nothing. Pure speculation and MM’s playing hardball.
The CEO has only stated that he intends to make an offer, it still stands until he says otherwise.
Mcap 24.8m
Revenue 622m
Business is remodeling to create a profitable future.
MM’s and derampers spreading fear of CVA.
There has been no official declaration of a CVA, only a buyout by the founder.