Member Info for Sm66

£1B isn’t current debt, as of December update it was £690m but expected to max at 1 to 1.1B as the year progresses possibly due to performance guarantees required for commencement of large scale contracts.

If they can renegotiate the debt and turn FCF positive which was supposed to happen this year buts been delayed until 2026, however EBITDA expected to grow by low double digit so potentially £490m which gives a valuation of 2.5 to 3B minus debt.

Ice oil

You just made me check the % of institutional investors vs mere mortals

Staggering split PI’s only have 5% ish to play with

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/JOHN-WOOD-GROUP-PLC-4003879/company-shareholders/

Isle

Look into the fundamentals

Assets +£3B

Order book £6B

Debt as of December £690m

The share price crashed because the management stated FCF and delayed by 1 year.

Debt is repayable in October 2026.

The business is not over a barrel yet. The can renegotiate the debt 12 months before it’s due.

The current SP seriously undervalues the business,.

Can th management be forced to accept a low ball???? Only the management know for sure. Sidara will want a deal for sure but I doubt they think they can steal a business of this size for pennies.

Hold onto your hats chaps. Expect the 4% shorts will be scrambling to exit. They may well get a squeeze here.

Not a done deal yet but the management are near the corner so expect the business to be stollen but not for anything near the current SP

GLA

Another net decrease in shorts

James

Nice purchase

A few more than my total which is approximately 140,000 shares but I’m currently up so happy for now and not selling any time soon.

GLA

James

I think your numbers are off?

I bought 20,000 at 23.8 for £5k this am.

50k would buy a lot more mate, probably a typo

Net reduction in overall short positions yesterday

Management have admittedly overseen the decline in the SP whilst attempting to turn the business around. They are convinced that the path to free cash flow is ahead and if they’re right then the SP will follow.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like the current sentiment but it has provided an opportunity for the brave who can see through the BS.

Mcap at half EBITDA says enough to me

It also explains why the management rejected 230p offer as it severely undervalued the business.

Current SP is a gift IMV

Industry standard is 5-6X EBITDA

450m x 5 =?

May take a year or 2 but once the negative cash flow is sorted and debt reduction kicks in that’s where it should be

Do the numbers people.

I was worried and sold at 45p incurring a loss on Friday but have looked deeper since and I’m back in at 24p.

Firstly, it’s worth listening to the investor Q&A from Friday

Secondly: EBITDA £450-£460m

Debt $1.1B

Net assets north of £3B

Order book £6.2B and climbing

Mcap £173m

The business is rebuilding itself and listening to the management Q&A, has a bright future with positive cash flow expected in 2026.

Whilst at first glance of fridays RNS I thought this would be PFC part 2, the situation is completely different. DYOR.

Shorts have had a great time here recently but will take their profits and run unless the business is failing which according to the management, it isn’t.

I’m not predicting where the SP will end up and it could go lower but the business is secure for now and vastly undervalued IMVHO

Net assets as per most recent deceleration (Dec23) £3.6B from what I can make of it. Therefore it does seem somewhat undervalued currently

Management have taken the SP from 900p to 44p in just 8 years. More recently rejected an offer of 220p as it allegedly undervalued the business. This has blown its chance of any recovery from November fall and today’s update is a disaster. I sold an unpleasant loss at 45p because it’s currently looking too similar to PFC.

suspect the real reason for rejecting the Apollo offer was they wanted to keep the skeletons hidden.

This poster has only ever made one post and only just opened an account! Fake

I wasn’t trying to spread fake news, I was using this site and although 2 shorts are showing, when you open the tab it says there are no registered shorts? Go figure

Declared shorts have all gone. I dare say MM’s have some tidying up to do then it’s just a waiting game for the review and trading update. Very good to see the shorts gone though.

Johnjo

Not sure where you’re getting 13 from, IG market data shows JD with a normalized PE ratio of 6.25.

I’d say that’s pretty low for a business making £915m profit per annum.

Quite probable they manage an orderly exit but I suspect that exit they will and there are approximately 40m shares to clear in order for that to happen. 3% if 1.46B. The Mcap around $350m and they just won a court case for $320m. It explains why the SP was pushed so low but the recovery looks like it has some way to go.

They will be using every resource in order to exit with minimum pain, but exit they must now. One of them increased on the 1st. Almost 3% to buy back.