Member Info for Sm66

I’m expecting a kick back from the trolls today.

Sentiment and shorts have caused the drop in SP. what we trade at and what the actual business is worth are seldom 1 for 1. Usually it’s many multiples in this industry typically 6x . At present Wood is .05. Fridays drop may have been provided to enable shorts to exit or may have been shorts increasing or may have been shareholders selling. We will know the shorts story tomorrow evening.

M&A doesn’t randomly value a business on its current SP.

they use EBITDA, Assets, projected growth etc minus debt.

It’s really not that hard to work out and exactly why previous offers around 220-230p have been rejected.

The fact that Sidara have come back to the table will not be on a whim and not because Wood are in crisis and there’s an opportunity to steal the business cheap. Sidara wants a deal, wood wants to sell, shareholders want a fair price.

There’s no harm in guessing but work out the true fair value first.

August 24 ! Muppet

The article also states that the stock is currently trading at 0.15 book value. Enough said. So book value is 6 or 7 X current SP. that’ll do nicely

190-50p and one trading day from a possible takeover! Beyond suspicious. This analyst wants sacking!

I suspect it’ll all happen at once

Report completed

Offer being considered etc

Https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/pressreleases/2023/04/statement-regarding-final-proposal-for-john-wood-group-plc-wood

Hello Dave

Easy answer for you…..SP will be 180p

Yam

Same-same I’ve been observing this decline from what is now a very low marker in JD. No idea where the bottom might be for a highly profitable business, unless we’re witnessing its decline. Thankfully I moved into wood group which is in takeover territory and one of my only holdings that’s doing well and looking like it may do very well. Once that’s over, I will be having a much harder look into JD.

If Sidara were low balling anywhere near current SP it would have been rejected by the BOD’s and the whole thing called off. They have to make a sensible offer. You have to ask: why have they spent £10m on a review by Deloitte, why have they engaged Rothchilds to re-structure the debt.

My thoughts are to prove the business and increase the sale value.

35,000 staff

£6.2B order book

Etc,etc the only thing I’m confident about is that the SP is artificially low.

GLA

Showing approximately a 1% reduction from yesterday’s declared shorts.

Not a ridiculous comparison

RR was mismanaged and the share price was in the toilet.

Someone new was placed at the helm and turned the business around.

Wood has thousands of employees, billions in contracts and was very successful. Seemingly judging by sentiment and recent share price action, the current management have failed to deliver on their promises. Fundamentally the business is viable and has the opportunity to blossom. Whether that’s under new management or new ownership is yet to be decided. There’s no evidence that this company can’t be turned around. Debt is manageable etc.

For me as a PI and m hoping it gets a decent offer and I’m out quickly with a nice little profit but unfortunately it’s not up to me.

GLA

Surin

I wasn’t attempting to push you off the board. Simply trying my best to explain why the current SP is so below the value of this business.

I have no idea where the price will go tomorrow but believe a bid will be significantly higher than the current SP valuation.

Genuinely sorry if I came across harsh and offended you. We are all entitled to our opinions and it helps everyone to back those opinions with numbers etc.

All the best

SM

I forgot to mention assets

Net £3B

Surin

You seem to have a negative slant.

EBTDA £450m and expecting double digit growth 2026

Order book +£6B

Debt £690m which is due October 2026

Sidara attempting to purchase for cash.

Rothchilds working with management to restructure debt, most likely to increase the bid from Sidara.

Yes the Mcap has suffered terribly over the past years and yes they failed to generate FCF in 2025 and moved the forecast to 2026.

It’s up for sale, all us PI’s care about is the bid.

This is behaving in a very similar way to last Monday when the approach was made by sidara!

Feeling increasingly optimistic about the outcome here, who knows at what price, many guesses flying around but currently the SP still seems crazy low. I’m expecting very north of 100p perhaps 170p.

GLA

That’s true, sidara did walk away due to geopolitical reasons, events in the Middle East.

It was the Apollo offer that was rejected as it seriously undervalued the company at 230p

Yorkshireblues

That’s exactly my thought process. They jumped on the wagon before the announcement on Monday. I think tonight’s reported short positions will shed a clearer light on short sentiment.

Only subscribers can post links.

Easy enough just search FT wood group

Wiggly

Ok, fair enough I’d emitted u the leases.

Any way I’m working these numbers current Mcap is far to low. It’s basically half EBITDA which is beyond a distressed price. I’m struggling to see how institutions who currently hold 95% of the issued shares would vote on 40p.