Member Info for Slim_Shady

Shorts will keep attacking time and again until RR gets it debt level to a lower more reasonable level and starts generating consistent healthy profits. Uncertainty around new leadership is not helping either. TBF to the CFO they did change the fx hedging strategy earlier in the year but are locked in for a few yrs before this can take effect which is hurting right now.

After the H1 results I can’t see an immediate catalyst to separate us from the overall market trends. There is not enough strength in the business currently or economic market to stop accounting adjustments (e.g. fx revaluation and hedging) being the main reason we make some profit or not.

Until this bear run bottoms out and equities become attractive again feels like we will be range bound for a while.

I am a LTH but with the additional negative catalysts and change in management could be 2024 / 2025 before we see real upward momentum to the highs of last year at 1.50.

Sorry to hear about your loss - most on here just like to gloat and wouldn’t know how to handle a loss of that size.

Only way to survive is significant dilution or another big player like AMC buys up the cinemas. The Regal liability is an issue and will also depend on when the debt is due for repayment in terms of how much cash is needed. Film releases will also significantly ramp up from Dec’22 to Summer 23 which helps.

Additional problem with CINE is that the owners have done nothing innovative to try and revive the business just focussed on incentive scheme to line their own pockets.

In need of a short squeeze to raise cash through dilution like AMC but that is v unlikely.

I held FXPO until end of last year when it was 310 and sad to see what is happening now to Ukraine and also this company. Iron ore prices have started recovering and now Winter Olympics are over China will start ramping up production again.

I know someone in the shipping industry and they said to me pre-war the Ukrainian ports where iron ore is shipped had minimal ships going out and those that did had extortionate premium due to impending war. Until there is a ceasefire this will impact the production outflow of iron ore and also costs of distribution.

Only way FXPO can potentially stay attractive in the future (if they get through this) is if it keeps paying dividends. With constant Russian meddling no-one can trust the SP long term so need to recoup investment in dividends.

Boyo you are spot on with your analysis. I am bullish on hydrogen and potential of Ceres but you have to be careful based on recent history.

Berenberg similar to now put a 1540 target on Ceres in Feb last year and were then heavily involved in the 1060 equity raise the very next month. Any trust I had in them went after that as they obviously knew that was coming and short changed retail investors.

Additionally these Weichai bus trials have been swept under the carpet and pipeline still hasn’t ramped up. For me personally I need more evidence of commercialisation before I add more into this.

Everyone understands the potential of the hydrogen sector but I haven’t seen enough from Ceres over the last year in terms of pipeline or updates on Weichai or Bosch deals to think this is an immediate time to invest. With so many other sectors beaten down such as semi-conductor chips, big tech, electric there is a guaranteed bounce in companies there while with ceres not sure yet it will be a winner in the long term.

I do agree big boys could be pulling same trick as before HY results last year where RR was heavily suppressed compared to airlines even though it had defence and other profitable products on top of civil aerospace.

I own both RR and IAG but RR is a much better investment atm as any further big disruption and IAG could need more cash and a rights issue while RR will be ok.

RR having a smaller bounce and surprisingly lower volume than IAG but at least moving back up. Seems market interest to the upside for RR has reduced since Nov so will be a longer timeframe for returns. Based on where IAG and EZJ are RR should have got back up to late 120s / early 130s by now.

Expect RR to open around 117-118 based on late rally in US markets

Biden and Powell had better choose there words v carefully over next few days as could get v ugly if they get it wrong.

Today is biggest global market dump since prior to vaccine news came out in Nov’20 and all hope had been temporarily lost.

I had said FTSE had held ok so far in Jan but not anymore S&P500 -2%, FTSE100 -2.3%, FTSE250 -3.6% and FTSEAIM -4.5%. These are huge numbers lets hope for a bounce soon otherwise we will be starting to go from correction to market crash potential.

The whole Aim index down nearly 4.5% back to early Dec’20 prices. All that extra growth in 2021 wiped out in 3 weeks surely bottom is nearly in unless we are on for full market crash.

Where would long term support be on Ceres?

Slow the S&P is approaching nearly 10% correction from all time highs at end of Dec while FTSE has held flat since then so doing ok so far. This will be a key week on whether we see a longer bear cycle for a few months till March or a bottom set. Fed meeting will be key on whether they finalise interest rate hike or wait another month or two.

The US has also seen a much larger rout already in small caps (Russell 2000), Nasdaq and Biotechs from their all time highs last year.

Earnings season will also be key on whether company fundamentals can start to reassure the markets or it is just sell the news regardless what happens. Just look at Netflix it got killed even though it only had small slowdown in subscriptions and had solid EPS.

This is just temporary market noise for RR and will bounce back once final actions occur on inflation and Ukraine. Shouldn’t worry anyone as it is not COViD driving SP down which would affect RR day to day business.

Sadly with more geopolitical tensions could actually increase RR defence revenues. If anyone has cash aside this is an easy top up at this price for decent returns later in the year.

If anyone says they called this then that is nonsense as that was solely based on Omicron which was proven a false alarm and no-one expected these Russia tensions to get this far.

RR looking good for long recovery now we are through COVID. Unfortunately this has been timed with a bear market in US and other geopolitical tensions. I think we will slowly move up throughout the year but likely will take till HY’22 results to break 150.

https://amp.ft.com/content/dc4571e9-ed93-4fb3-bb8c-a4cc5e2a2737

This is the problem with AIM companies there isn’t pressure to update investors in appropriate way. Unless I have missed it any update on Weichai?

Do people think this may retrace to 820 and do a double bottom for the year before pushing up again long term?