Member Info for Slim_Shady

Will be interesting to see if shorts cover now and take profits or double down on potential for more downside profit due to likely rights issues and CINE having to payout.

There may be more hospitalisations but the average stay based on SA data is much shorter as Omicron has less severe impact. In the UK we are still under half on all key hospitalisation stats versus last year so there is still some provision to cope while everyone gets booster jabbed up next few weeks.

Because they are still going to make up a good proportion of hospitalisations and deaths that occur

Until Omicron came the unvaccinated made up most of the ppl in hospitals and also deaths so no need to be so snarky!

The problem now is unvaccinated will say what is the point of getting an MRNA jab that gives 0 protection by next winter so will just let us vaccinated keep getting jabbed up until there is a final proven solution and even then they may not get it.

Jim spot on agree I just posted on IAG board that MRNA may not be final vaccine answer. Gets us through this winter but others are coming. Nvax looks most imminent and follows similar method to the hepatitis b vaccine that is used.

Agree the key difference to last year was there was no answer to stop virus but this year 3rd dose stops Omicron so sensible to accelerate pace of vaccination as all lockdown would do is delay timeline to get a booster.

Longer term they may change travel rule late / end of Jan to require 3rd jab to be classed as fully vaccinated for travel.

Just a lot of bluster from Bojo to encourage ppl to get booster jab but nothing new to take into account.

Also just on Austria easing I was told by someone in Germany they are desperately trying to save there ski season over there so that gave extra impetus to get a short and sharp lockdown in to reduce cases quickly.

More restrictions such as plan c could come in but not a lockdown. Also plan c restrictions don’t impact travel.

Bojo already has c.50-60 rebels in his party to approve plan b. He knows to go to a lockdown would completely destroy his standing in the party and there would be mass riots in UK as nobody trusts govt or believes we should do that.

He is expected to provide an update on the booster programme. The BBC has been told there will not be any more new rules announced.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/austria-ends-covid-lockdown-restrictions-for-vaccinated-people

Would seem odd if UK would go into lockdown when Austria have just loosened there own regulations. If Omicron is so bad then would seem a v odd decision to make now before Xmas.

This conversation has been the same for 3 weeks. Those who currently have RR shares say Omicron will be mild and for ppl waiting to buy in say we are going into lockdown. Am sure the same ppl would be saying the opposite if in the reverse position.

In reality this is 50:50 as govt should be treating Covid as an economic issue and not health issue. Sadly the govt is desperate for short term popularity so I fear will bow towards more measures and RR holders will just need to sit tight till mid 2022 when hopefully ppl accept this is an endemic and just get on with living life.

Also on dividends RR cannot be seen to do this while they still have big debt repayments outstanding and that should also be a priority to avoid additional interest rate charges in the future.

Based on latest news next actions will be driven by hospitalisations rather than deaths. Govt will need to decide what the tolerance is for hospitalisations as Omicron may cause people to go to hospital but not at risk of deaths.

Plan C measures being mooted but nothing additional on travel just mainly on vaccine passports for pubs, restaurants etc. If that does come in then pub shares could become attractive in the new year.

The engine hours is not a surprise as the main long haul corridor via US only opened up in Nov so only a few weeks of additional revenue has come back in.

It seems ppl want to trade RR much more frequently and not be LTH. I would suggest there are much better shares for that as RR has a big market cap so needs big catalysts to run up quickly but also has less risk on the downside.

IAG is an indicator but just look at 2021 RR and IAG year lows and that shows how much better placed RR are to deviate away from other travel companies. Caspas made a good point on Power Systems also bringing RR down as that could have been a good non-travel catalyst.

RR needs heavy volume to rise above general travel news which can only come from a big new deal or attractive sell of for one of its businesses otherwise we wait for FY results.

Update was as expected and no positive surprises (e.g. engine hours) so market has reacted accordingly. Volume looks on track to run similar to earlier in week so this hasn’t got ppl excited to buy in like it did at HY.

Due to that RR is just following overall travel sentiment and market news and lets hope Omicron turning out milder will give us a catalyst prior to FY results in Feb.

CW agree after the foreign office whistleblower report on Mon and the Xmas party fiasco yesterday how low does it need to sink. Problem is none of them can be trusted to right the ship.

And I’m saying this as someone with positions in IAG and EZJ as well

Rr101 you need to look at RR differently to Tui, IAG and EZJ as for RR the RI is of the table while for the other 3 a few more twists and turns and they could need 1. Much safer swing trading RR with limited risk on the downside.

Falky your right will be fun and games till we get out of this winter. If you are a LTH then no reason to get frustrated as this will def be back up to 140s.

I get sense ppl are frustrated as they want to trade RR more often but it is just a luck game atm as no-one can predict what govts will do let alone what the Covid virus has in store for us.