Member Info for Slift

Good to see the rise lately on the back of refinance.

This should pick up faster yet with orders won to improve backlog in the next quarter.
The daily MA200 is at c. 139p also.
2021 could be the year since end of 2018 where the MA50 crosses MA200.

Fundamentals: Check
Technicals: Check

Pro tip, you heard it here first.

Don't gamble.

MarcelKrell,

Yes, you are most probably right. I think considering requiring "comprehensive analysis", there is oil, but not in commercial quantities?

Still can't be too sure though, the onshore drills done by ReconAfrica doesn't quite have the tech used offshore. Especially considering that these are budget drills in comparison.

Oh wells, onto the next one for ReconAfrica.

GLA.

Lucyw,

Thanks for your concern about my decision to make this investment here.
I have done plenty research before investing here and I will be investing on my own opinions, thoughts and research. I don't think you'll be able to shake me or others here unless you provide sufficient information.

If the fine is to be more, then so be it.
I'm personally more interested in PFC strengthening order book and the future prospects in the industry with improving margins.
At the moment (end of Q1/21), i'm fairly happy with the order book and financials of Petrofac. I'm also very optimistic about Q2/21 for Petrofac and FY21, as it stands.

Good luck to you at Wood.

Lucyw,

It must also be noted in your post that Wood made provision of $197m for the bribery offences on Unaoil investigation (a major scandal). This investigation is therefore being investigated by DOJ, SEC, COPFS, the SFO, etc. In fact, I believe Wood has said 6 authorities.

The amount that Wood has stated ($197m) respresents fines as a result of the UK, US and Brazillian Authorities.
The SFO fine here would be a fraction of this, maybe half.

Lucyw,

" I see some posters here think that Petrofac can get away lightly or with no fine at all. The nativity of certain people here does amaze me. They've no clue about how the law works."

Before you make yourself look like a fool about "how the law works", I suggest you go read up SFO's Operational Handbook - their bible of how they prosecute SHOULD PETROFAC BE CHARGED.

Should Petrofac be charged, in normal circumstances (i.e. in 2017), I agree that the company could have been charged UP TO c. $1b.
However, in current circumstances and considering the financial position Petrofac is in, I had an estimate of $400m being the upper end. Following the recent debt refinancing, even $400m looks steep.

It is not in the public interest (judicial order) or SFO's interest to bankrupt and make a company insolvent.

From SFO's handbook:
"This should be considered in all cases but will be particularly relevant where the Company is able to demonstrate substantial financial hardship. Whether the imposition of financial terms has the effect of putting the Company out of business will be relevant. A number of other relevant factors may be considered such as the impact of any fine on employees and/or shareholders and the impact of any fine on the ability of the Company to implement effective remedial and compliance measures."

I am very very happy about Petrofac's management following the most recent debt refinancing. I posted a few days ago about PFC's debt structure.
I think everything else will be self explanatory on how clever Petrofac's management are - in reducing ANY fine should be implemented by SFO.

At least for 2021, Petrofac currently, is unable to pay more than c. $50-100m without the company demonstration hardship within the next 12 months. Which is not in publics' or SFO's interest.
For how and where i've got that figure, I suggest you go look at Petrofac's finances. That figure is subject to change depending on orders won/lost in the near future.

If anyone's naive, it's you who thinks they can get a much lower entry here ;) I say good luck to you.

dflynch,

"All Hurricane has to do is issue the 442,307,692 shares. The CB holders have no choice but to take the shares – they cannot demand US$230 million. Well done Hurricane!"
This is a ridiculous statement to make.

The point I was making in my last post is:
"although the number ofOrdinary Shares underlying the Convertible Bonds may change from time to time as the conversion pricewill be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions dealing with, among otherthings, share consolidations, share splits, capital distributions, rights issues and bonus issues."

I don't need to say more.
You asked to be "corrected and educated", so I simply corrected your understanding of how conversions work, using the extract from HUR CB.

"Given the paucity of information I wonder how you managed to derive the figures you have broadcast. Do tell."
I assumed 20% discount to current share price to come to the figure. I'm sure you're able to derive the figures, estimates and assumptions from that using my stated figures.

dflynch,

"Neither can I answer as to why the CB apparently holders agreed in 2017 to Hurricane’s mandatory conversion of the CB into the 442,307,692 shares at maturity in 2022."
Because the "set" share price for conversion was $0.52/share.

Here's the extract I read:
"The Convertible Bonds will be convertible into fully paid Ordinary Shares with the initial conversion priceset at US$0.5200, representing a 25 per cent. premium above the Placing Price of 32 pence per Placing Share(converted into US$ at a £/US$1.30 exchange rate). This implies that there will be approximately423,076,923 to 442,307,692 Ordinary Shares underlying the Convertible Bonds as at the issue date of theConvertible Bonds, depending on whether the over-allotment option is exercised, although the number ofOrdinary Shares underlying the Convertible Bonds may change from time to time as the conversion pricewill be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions dealing with, among otherthings, share consolidations, share splits, capital distributions, rights issues and bonus issues.Upon conversion of the Convertible Bonds, the Company may elect to settle its obligations by way ofdelivery of Ordinary Shares, payment of a cash alternative amount (calculated by reference to the volumeweighted average price of an Ordinary Share over a specified period) or a combination of the two."

Note: "conversion pricewill be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions dealing with, among otherthings, share consolidations, share splits, capital distributions, rights issues and bonus issues."

HUR are in talks with bondholders for restructuring and debt for equity swap.
The result will dilute shareholders "significantly".
I think HUR shareholders will be left with approx. 30% equity, if not less.

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/new-dawn-as-uganda-oil-firms-seal-deal-to-kick-off-production-3358108

"After today’s signing, officials expect Total E&P and Cnooc to announce Final Investment Decision (FID)—the availability of at least $10b (Shs36 trillion) for the development phase, followed by awarding of the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts.

Of the $10b, about $6.7b (about Shs24 trillion is for developing Total E&P’s Tilenga oil project, which included oil fields in Buliisa and Nwoya districts, and Cnooc’s Kingfisher project in Hoima and Kikuube districts, and $3.8b (Shs13.8 trillion) is the capex for the EACOP.

The awarding of EPC contracts, many of which have been evaluated over the last months, is expected to commence in the the next weeks and pave way for the development/construction phase."

Have high hopes for PFC to secure some of these contracts over the next few weeks.

dflynch,

I think you've misunderstood there.
The CB has to be redeemed on par. The bondholders will receive $230m in cash, or $230m worth in shares issued to bondholders when share price is at 32p or above.

If they receive neither at maturity, Bondholders have the right to take the company to administration, at which they are able to recoup what assets (including cash, assets, inventory etc.) HUR has.
If HUR has LESS than $230m in assets, Bondholders take it all, and will take a loss. Shareholders will not get anything.
If HUR has MORE than $230m in assets, then the remainder (once assets are sold) is distributed to shareholders.

Have reduced my holdings here past week.

As you say T1995, I am also hopeful of the huge potential here going forwards, especially when it reaches a point where dividends will be paid.

However there are 3 things that i'm not happy with:
1. Cash in bank + dodgy accounting by management
2. Company based in Brazil - I have struggled to do proper research due to access + language barrier.
3. Not reporting (quarterly/full year results) in a timely manner.

"Harvest has previously stated that in broad terms, "breakeven" is represented by sales of approximately 40,000 tonnes of KP Fértil®, accordingly, having sold 54,000 tonnes represents Harvest achieving its maiden profit on a cash accounting basis. However, due to IFRS accounting rules, this profit won't be recorded in the audited financial statements until this financial year is completed."

Will be interesting to see how the company progresses, and I will be following here for the now reduced holding I have.

GLA.

"an honest look at the company's assets shows that there are no value-adding options that justify the risk."

Wrong.
Even after the most recent CPR and RNS, Hurricane's assets have 81.9mmboe 2C resources and 7.1m 2P reserves as of 31st December 2020.

c. 90m barrels of 2C oil isn't small amounts.
There is definitely value available with HUR's assets.
In my honest opinion, only 30m barrels of recoverable oil is required to return some value to shareholders.

But there is no value-adding, feasible or attractive FWP put forward by the BOD. They don't have the balls for it, probably because of incompetence.
Antony Maris is considered an "expert" in fractured basement, yet to put forward a FWP that costs $60m and provides 3.2m recoverable reserves (well 8) is just silly.

But are the BOD have already decided to think of HUR as "terminal cancer" at stage 4, before it's even reached stage 1.
Because of BOD incompetence, I don't believe there is a future for HUR or shareholders.

Thommie,

EG assets sale is a big L for Tullow.
I think at the time of sale, the sale looked marginally positive on paper for accounting. But in reality, was not value accretive whatsoever.
As I've said, the sale has significantly reduced future growth potential for Tullow.

Looks like Dussafu is next, with Panoro targeting Tullow's lifting if sale completes before cash is paid.
"In March, Panoro also had the following international liftings, with cash to be paid in April:

Approximately 56,000 barrels in Dussafu (based on 7.5% working interest) at ~US$ 66 per barrel (130,000 barrels approx. based on increased stake in Dussafu once acquisition of additional 10% working interest is completed)"

I think net debt may be around $2.1-2.3b at YE21.
All depends on progress made by Tullow on their drills in Ghana and oil price.

www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/pipelines-africa/313843/uganda-tanzania-oil-fid/amp/

Contracts should be awarded within a few weeks of this. Exciting times.

"Tullow gets the £75 m"

This would be nice, but I SUSPECT that Tullow has already given this to the RBL banks.
The RBL debt was reduced by $75m between completion of sale and YE20 results.

Coincidence? I personally think not.
But who knows, maybe Tullow has paid $75m with cash during that period.

Yes, I believe so, Petrofac did initially place a bid for the Jurassic Gas Facility projects 4 and 5.

As people say, it's not all down to lowest bid. Petrofac has worked with Kuwait on multiple big projects and have delivered well.
The most compliant bid that would offer the most for the value would get the award.

As for pipelines, I think Petrofac will have placed bids for some of the pipeline projects. The pipeline projects are linked to the Lower Fars central processing facility which Petrofac was heavily involved in.

I think we'll soon see some very big orders land here before Half Year. Would significantly boost Petrofac's prospects and really show how undervalued this company is, even with the SFO matter.

To all that exited on the news of CPR.
Not pleasant to see the share price bleed and bleed, but "hope" doesn't make share price rise.

Yet the rampers are still using multiple accounts to ramp this stock.

Don't gamble peoples.

Might have a punt here, at 0.8p

www.oedigital.com/amp/news/486680-ithaca-energy-sanctions-550m-eor-project-in-north-sea

No doubt Petrofac will be bidding for this project, and should have a good chance of being awarded this project.
$550m is a good investment here in the North Sea, and would be a good project for Petrofac to land in the ongoing suspensions from key markets.

We will see.

FID for Uganda will take place in the next month or so, sooner rather than later.

Petrofac should be getting awarded the central processing facility EPC contract here for Kingfisher development. Although there are other EPC contracts here too for Petrofac to win also.